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2003-The Future Of Democracy By
It would seem as if we have entered into an election year already whereas, it is not yet two years into the life of this administration. The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (1999) recommends that the president and the governors shall vacate their offices, at the expiration of a period of four years commencing from the date when they took the oath of allegiance and oath of office.
But no! Don't expect that this provision will be adhered to in its strict sense. Elections are a source of power and those who seek power must be awake while others are yet in bed. Seeking re-election is a serious business for political parties. For politicians, it is as important as the air they breath. For if they miss it, they may as well have used their own hands to wipe off the records which they have managed to set in the last four years. For this and other reasons, 2003 is a date that will witness the unexpected.
For the political parties, 2003 will offer them the opportunity to re-draw the partisan map that will, by then, be four years old. None of the parties will be prepared to lose ground. Rather, they must embark on expansionist campaigns. Success in this bid, however, depends on how well the current gains are applied and re-invested.
The power of incumbency is a major gain from which other gains could be harnessed. For instance, once you are in power, you are constitutionally licensed to have greater access to resources than those who are in the periphery of it. You are therefore better placed to employ the tool of intimidation against your opponent. In Nigeria, government remains the largest source of funds. Political parties are going to queue for some of it by hook or crook. Through contracts and other patronage, funds will fill the purses of the parties for campaigns and for 'buying votes. The police will be funded by government to maintain the peace come 2003. In their usual over- zealousness, the police may cause some people sleepless nights on behalf of the incumbent.
The Independent National Electoral Commission will need a lot of independence come 2003. The Commission is asking for about N1.2 billion to conduct a nation- wide election. That money will come from government and must be justified at the end of the day.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is therefore going to face the greatest challenge of playing fair in the eyes of Nigerians and of course in the eyes of the international community. The party has to apply self-censorship, so as not to ride rough in 2003, as it will be tempted to place a final lid upon the opposition.
But it has to put its house in order, by re-enacting the seemingly mature Jos presidential convention of 1999. So far, the dissenting voices in the party are appearing to be calmed or appeased. Others seem to have given up to the awesomeness of power. At the end of the day, President Obasanjo may yet be nominated to seek re-election. The PDP will therefore be making serious attempts at expanding its coast.
The All Peoples Party (APP) appears weather bitten and dispersed, giving the impression that 2003 will not be an interesting contest. The party leadership had missed vital steps in its formative days and is not recovering fast. But that does not mean that it will lose ground where achievements have been recorded. The party may still turn out to be a joker as far as presidential contest is concerned. Already, its state of seriousness can be gleamed from the dangerous manner its net is being spread for possible candidates. The last time, they shopped for someone outside their party. Right now, they havent gone too far from that lazy precedent. It is only a gambling party that will seek this option. However, every serious APP Governor must be able to retain his state for the party.
The Alliance for Democracy (AD) will not pretend to have the muscle for 2003 presidential election. The best the party can do in the absence of a credible national leadership is to try to take the battle to the states where it once had an unflinching followership.
The AD was once a powerful and closely related political association of lovers of democracy. The love for democracy and hatred for military rule used to be the ADs cardinal principle. By 2003 the party will need some other sentiments to survive on. Democracy is a dynamic process that may not always survive on old tricks. The AD used old tricks in the last elections. They have to find new ones to survive 2003. The man who was not known at home in 1999 will want to be known in 2003. President Obasanjo will no longer be a political alien in the South West if he gets a second nomination.
Across the country, the opposition hasnt been too daring yet. Except in Lagos and a few states where some politicians are still licking old wounds. The Lagos scenario, if handled maturedly, a very interesting and keen contest is what political bookmakers are looking out for. The incumbent will not want to be shooed out of power so early. But the PDP will give him a run for his money.
In Edo State, no credible opposition has offered to give Governor Lucky Igbinedion some sleepless nights yet. The APP is still fine- tuning and holding meetings. Their greater enemy is the psychological fear of the incumbent.
Kogi State will be another battle ground, just as the old governors of the AD states have to tighten their girdles and hone their skills. Old tricks may fail them in 2003.
As the battle for 2003 gets off the ground, politicians must not forget that fair play is the key for the survival of democracy. The Second Republic collapsed under the weight of greed and over- ambition. The ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was not content with its reasonable victory of 1979. In 1983, it went for an incredible landslide victory. It pursued this into areas where it had no grassroots support. It went into Edo, Ondo, Oyo, Old Anambra State, to secure illegal votes. The people rose against such bare-faced rigging, to cause mayhem, destruction and plunder. Lives were lost and property destroyed.
The old NPN used the police to intimidate opposition parties. It used the government- controlled media to churn out outright lies and heinous propaganda against the opposition parties. Electoral malpractices were rife, and people openly invited the military to come take over the running of the country. The Second Republic was run in a winner-takes-all manner. The elections were conducted in that manner still. At the end, the Republic collapsed. In 2003, only fair play will move democratic practice to the future.
March 2002
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