Chief Tony Anenih, Minister for Works and Housing and arguably the most powerful man in President Olusegun Obasanjo's kitchen cabinet, seems to know more than any of us what plans are afoot to foster the president on the nation come the 2003 elections, his present very low rating notwithstanding.

No doubt, Anenih should know how to plot the way for another term for Obasanjo. Whether he and the other schemers in the Obasanjo administration will succeed in fooling Nigerians come 2003 is a different story.

The other day, Anenih announced at a civic reception in honour of Governor Peter Odili in Rivers State that there was no vacancy in Aso Rock. He said the Federal Government was aware of clandestine moves by politicians eyeing the presidency from across the country but that the 'throne' was not vacant for them. As he puts it: "I'm also aware as a politician that there are very unserious discussions going on all over the country. Some running mates are looking for walking mates and some walking mates are looking for running mates. I want to say clearly that there is no vacant seat now for any running mate or principal walking mate. And I do not see any vacant seat in the year 2003."

Perhaps Anenih was responding to the reception held recently by governors of the 19 states in the North for Atiku Abubakar, the Vice President, whom they appear to be preparing to take over from Obasanjo. Anenih's outburst also came at the time Governor Orji Kalu of Abia State was hitting hard at Obasanjo for being such a disappointment.

It is hard to know by what measure Anenih is speaking so confidently as regards the occupancy of Aso Rock now and in 2003. It is hoped some people are not planning to force themselves on us. It is also hoped they are still going to depend on the votes of ordinary Nigerians to remain in power and not through the back door.

These questions arise because it is only those who have magic wands in their pockets that will speak so boisterously the way Anenih did. Yet, Nigeria is no longer a country to be run by magic or the rule of force as we had it under Babangida and Abacha. If Anenih and Obasanjo, both being retired police and military officers respectively, think that they can confidently ride Nigeria using their background as men from the forces, they better think twice.

There is hardly anything to point to on ground since Obasanjo took over May 29, 1999 that qualifies him for a second term. And there are no steps being taken that could change the face of Nigeria between now and 2003. It is disheartening that the President is such a failure in all that he promised Nigerians he would do. One cannot but agree with Governor Kalu that "If he (Obasanjo) cannot perform, he should honourably resign and give way to people who can perform."

In his inaugural speech following his swearing-in as President, May 29, 1999, Obasanjo lamented, "our infrastructure - NEPA, NITEL, roads, railways, education, housing and other social services were allowed to decay and collapse. Our country has thus been through one of its darkest periods... I am not a miracle worker... I am determined ... to make significant changes within a year of my administration." Those are Obasanjo's words and promises. Granted that he is not a miracle worker, nobody expected miracles. Matter of fact, with the resources at Nigeria's disposal, we don't need a miracle worker to live normal lives.

In his bid to make a difference with power supply, he brought in Chief Bola Ige whom everybody believed would tame the lion in the authority, Ige failed despite all his promises. Obasanjo sacked the Board of NEPA and brought the parastatal under the presidency. Nothing worked. He reached for Joseph Makoju who was at the control tower of the West African Portland Cement and made him managing director of NEPA. Still, there is no change. In fact, the nation is more in the dark than ever before. The man, Makoju, told us last week in a paper he presented during the French Week that NEPA needs $15 billion for regular power supply. He didn't tell us what has become of the billions of dollars thrown at NEPA in the last two years and the perpetual outage we continue to have. The black out is not just in the cities where industries are down or are run on generators that soon get over-worked. It is extended to the interior; the villages and towns where millions of voters live. I was in my home town the other day when my old mum said she had poured some guinea corn in her grinding machine for the past three days and the thing is stuck there because she could not complete the grinding, no thanks to NEPA. These are the people Obasanjo would go to in 2003 to ask for their votes. They may not know immediately whom they will vote for but they certainly know whom they will not vote for unless Obasanjo puts a smile on their faces.

If the stress in the land continues like this, and a hundred of Anenihs tell Nigerians to vote for Obasanjo, he should be sure he has had the result already. Even if he spends all of the year 2003 budget fighting the election, it will not work.

In his inaugural speech earlier referred to, Obasanjo listed for Nigerians the priority issues he would address immediately. They include "the crisis in the oil producing areas, food supply, food security and agriculture; law and order with particular reference to armed robbery and cultism in our educational institutions. Exploration and production of petroleum; education; macro- economic policies, particularly exchange rate management; supply and distribution of petroleum products; infrastructure -water supply, energy, telecommunications; resuscitation of manufacturing industries," etc.

Obasanjo's score cards on these are as follows. The crisis in the oil- producing areas was solved by the Odi killings where a village was wiped out by soldiers Obasanjo deployed. Law and order with particular reference to armed robbery is being attended to with the massive attack by jobless youths who have turned to armed robbery worse than ever before. The result of the exchange rate management is manifest in the rate of the naira to the Dollar that has soared from about N85 to N123 at present.

The result of his battle against corruption, drugs and 419 is marked by the arrest of the Lanre Shittus of this world, the misappropriation of funds by our senators and the renewal of strength of the 419 operators. Obasanjo's promise to ensure adequate supply and distribution of petroleum products is fulfilled in the scarcity of the products all over the country such that a litre of diesel sells for N42, PMS N30 in the hinterland and kerosene at N40 as opposed to N20, N22 and N17 respectively.

Obasanjo also promised harmony in the inaugural speech within the three arms of government saying "it is my resolve to work harmoniously with the legislature and the judiciary to ensure that Nigerians enjoy good and civilised governance. What Nigeria has witnessed between Obasanjo and the National Assembly is everything but civilised governance.

So, the Anenihs in the Obasanjo government have to go back to the drawing board. If there will be no vacancy in Aso Rock, they have to spend the next two years mending all the cracks, correcting all their failures and showing Nigerians they deserve the votes come 2003. If the manifest failures of the past 18 months are what Anenih thinks he would deploy to re sell Obasanjo to Nigerians, he has failed right from the start.

The writer is based in lagos