Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Why does the village idiot take his bedroom door off the hinges, and hide it underneath his bed every night before he goes to sleep? Is it because he is afraid that somebody might peep through the keyhole if he left the door in tact? Who could possibly disagree with such nebulous and diversely interpreted notions like "unity in diversity", "equity", "peace", "progress", "faith", "indivisibility", "territorial integrity", "justice", "human dignity", "environmental safety", "patriotism" , "anti-corruption", "prosperity", "tradition", "discipline", "transparency", or "international community"?

In keeping with the rudiments of hard-core propaganda, the proponents of "nascent democracy" are full of exciting altruism, and tantalizing "dividends", that Nigeria so admirably assumes, in its unquestionable self-imposed self-righteousness, as Africa’s last and only true hope, (whatever that means). Unfortunately, such noble abstractions are being used to cloak the unacceptable face of predatory autocracy, disguised as democracy that defines the aspirations of the current crop of leaders in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, at all tiers of governance.

Apparently, Lord Lugard and his fellow British colonial military administrators (MILADs) preferred muscle-endowed, bellicose congenital semi-imbeciles to acquiescently enforce funny colonial laws against their fellow Nigerians, and also maintain the peace, unity, tranquillity, stability, and order of the Nigerian sector of the British Empire. Those were the bad old days of British colonialism, or so it appears to be.

Today, 42 years after independence, on the one hand, some Nigerians belch out balls of fire, as they boil and stew with satanic rage that:

On the other hand, others are amazed, but not amused that:

And so, it came to pass that the yet to be accurately determined population of post-colonial Nigeria continues to explode, against all known laws of demography, while the country’s economy implodes progressively, leaving behind, a thoroughly short-changed, and disoriented citizenry, who are routinely terrorised by a shamelessly sadomasochistic (armed) Nigerian Police Force, 42 years after independence.

While various Nigerian military dictators deliberately degraded the (armed) Nigerian Police Force, for reasons of power gluttony, supposedly democratic civilians co-opt the (armed) Nigerian Police Force mainly to rig elections, sustain themselves in power, and procure the services of policemen as rented escorts, whose modus operandi is no different from those of the "Tontons Macoutes" of Haiti, as personal security guards, indeed, over-glorified mai guards, even for their wives, mistresses, girlfriends, children, friends, relations, and cronies. Meanwhile, the very persons that brought about the degradation of the Nigerian Police Force are all well and alive, busy playing "elder statesman" games that Nigerians play; games that have been costing, and continue to cost Nigeria, an arm and a leg.

By the way, Chief (Mr.) "Fix It", the unelected "Leader", and the Federal Minister of Works and Housing, in a universe where the propensity for extortion, intimidation, blackmail, back stabbing, and intrigue for personal advantage, are recognised political assets, far in excess of the utility of ministerial competence, is a retired (armed) Nigerian Police officer. No wonder!

The result is General Obasanjo’s latest recipe for disaster, otherwise known as the "Hope Project".

If Nigerians have ever wondered why Nigeria is a country that other countries simply find irresistible to detest, then the past forty-one (41) months of "hope" lay the reasons out in full grandeur for all to see.

What is really the attraction to partisan politics in Nigeria? How do we minimise the influence and values of the hidden persuaders that dictate the norms of partisan politics in Nigeria? What are the incentives for playing "clean" politics, instead of the usual "dirty" politics in Nigeria? How do we minimise the lure to power addiction? How do we curtail the abuse of political power in Nigeria? How do Nigerians demand accountability from their representatives, be they councillors, Local Government Chairpersons, members of the state Houses of Assembly, state Governors, Federal representatives, Senators, or the President?

Why is the Nigerian polity so over-heated, and yet, it is apparently resilient? Could the Nigerian condition make a quantum transition to a worse condition, or maybe to a better reality, or could Nigeria simply stagnate ad infinitum? Is there any need to change the status quo in contemporary Nigerian politics? Are the rules of engagement in Nigerian politics overdue for drastic changes? How do we minimise the resultant entropy in the Nigerian political system? What are the most optimal and workable short-term solutions that can assure long-term resolution of Nigeria’s political dysfunction?

What, if any, could be the positive attributes of our "Made-in-Nigeria" kind of politics that is so heavily populated with predatory autocrats, young and old? Are there any other viable alternatives to democracy that may best suit the Nigerian condition? Is the Nigerian condition actually being remote-controlled from outside, for the worst? Should Nigerians endure or tolerate their deliberate underdevelopment by their kith and kin? How do Nigerians peacefully and effectively transit from the politics of personalities, to the politics of issues, and measurable development?

Are Northern Nigerians not "patriotic" enough to be bona fide members of "The Patriots"? Did General Abdulsalami Abubakar really promulgate a decree that summarily foreclosed any further civil or criminal litigation against the surviving members of General Sani Abacha’s family on the matter of treasury looting? Is it true that just the personal vote (alone) of a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is N18 million, for the year 2002?

What are the relative values of the legitimate earnings (official salary, and the monetised equivalent of all legitimate official fringe benefits) of the President of Nigeria, or a member of the National Assembly, or a state Governor, or a Minister, or a Commissioner, or a local Government Chairperson, as compared to the GDP per capita in Nigeria?

Suddenly, state and Federal governments are sponsoring beauty contests, while sermonising to Nigerians about the need to decouple government from business. Should federal, state, or local government -owned establishments be allowed to donate generously to "pet projects" like the "Child Care Trust", or WOTCOLEF? Is the "Child Care Trust" (CCT) "pet project" of Her Excellency Chief (Mrs.) Stella Obasanjo any different from, the "Better Life Programme" (BLP) of Her Excellency Hajiya (Dr.) Mrs. Maryam Ibrahim-Babangida, or the "Family Support Programme" (FSP) of Her Excellency Hajiya (Dr.) Mrs. Maryam Sani-Abacha, beyond the sheepish regurgitation of seemingly pre-programmed slogans, particularly those unoriginal, and unconvincing refrains about caring for the so-called "less privileged", and the stereotypical "disadvantaged"?

Given the recent, and rather sudden "liberalisation" of the Nigerian political space, vis-à-vis the formation, and registration of political parties, is there any need at all for a realignment of political like-minds, or do we undertake a deliberate radical surgery, and depart from the paradigm of the existing six (6) anthrax-coated fingers of a generically modified, politically squint-eyed, and kwashiorkor-ridden geriatric dwarf’s hand, conveniently disguised as INEC-compliant political parties?

Why is Transparency International still condoning the embarrassing presence of General Olusegun Obasanjo’s continued membership of that body, given his pathological abhorrence for accountability, probity, and transparency in governance?

Should General Olusegun Aremu Mathew Obasanjo, Senate President Ayim Pius Ayim, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Ghali Umar Na’abba, Chief Justice Muhammad Uwais, the 36 incumbent state Governors, the 36 incumbent Speakers of the states Houses of Assembly, the 36 incumbent Chief Judges of the states, and the current so-called caretakers of the 774 local government councils nationwide be begged, cajoled, or, if need be, forced to quit partisan politics, in the wider interest of the Nigerian Federation, even if they may not yet agree that they have become moribund, visionless, fossilised, and hence, counter-productive to the interest of Nigeria?

The narcissistic betrayal of deep-rooted megalomania, with the smokescreen of tenacious insistence on the democratic right of General Obasanjo to contest the presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, without further regards to any other counter arguments within the wider Nigerian context, is to say the very least, stupid, and very nauseating.

Consider, or imagine, just for a moment:

It is self-evident that the Nigerian condition calls for political re-engineering. However, it must be borne in mind that the basic requirements of re-engineering entail radical surgery, so to speak. This means that some voluntary or involuntary sacrifices have to be made. Based on the principles of effective organisational change management, it is practically self-defeating, and unimaginative to contemplate a recovery strategy of gradual reformation, or guided re-democratisation, or continuous, or piece-meal improvements, the way that General Obasanjo would prefer, for a dysfunctional system with more than 10% systemic error, such as the Nigerian political system is. Re-engineering is the optimal solution. However, if re-engineering is the prescription, should the change process be voluntary or involuntary?

Clearly, it would be most desirable if the re-engineering of Nigerian politics happens voluntarily, otherwise, the outcomes could be very unpleasant. Any attempts at resisting the systemic changes that manifest sporadically because of the glaring internal contradictions of the Nigerian political culture space, could be irreversibly fatal for the country and its people.

If it is causing someone with a previous exposure, experience and taste of ultimate political power in Nigeria, like General Olusegun Obasanjo, this much pain to gracefully bow out of partisan politics, one wonders the intensity of agony brewing in the minds of neophyte Senators, Representatives, Governors, Ministers, Commissioners, States Assemblymen, and Local Government Chairpersons.

It is self-evident that the Nigerian condition calls for General Obasanjo to negotiate his exit, and if need be, secure a general amnesty for his fellow living former predatory autocrats of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

Suddenly, General Obasanjo accepts that his coronation on 29 May 1999 had conditionalities. Suddenly, General Obasanjo feels generous enough to submerge his undisguised patronising indifference to the predicament of the people of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, and to now want to address the threatening consequences of his past insensitivity, and greed for the pillaging of the petroleum resources of that region, by dialogue, not contempt. Suddenly, state Governors take powerful delegations to the President of Nigeria, begging for the exercise of the prerogative of mercy for treasury looting. Suddenly, the President of Nigeria exercises his prerogative of mercy, as requested by such powerful delegations. Suddenly, even INEC accepts the glaring fact that the products of its endeavours to date are unconstitutional.

Suddenly, Nigeria and the world woke up to a nightmare in Abuja, when a Senator introduced a twist to the Presidential impeachment drama. The Senator claims that he returned an alleged bribe, intended to forestall the impeachment of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Quite interestingly, the distinguished Senator further revealed that the anti-corruption commission, General Obasanjo’s facade for transparency in his presidency, is yet to express interest in the allegation. Suddenly, everything in Nigeria, under the direct supervision and command of General Obasanjo, is wrong. Suddenly, even Mr. "Fix It" is voiceless, and suddenly, General Obasanjo is realising that the expressway from Otta to Abeokuta is bad! Suddenly.

The alleged bribe was targeted at some 66 Senators, as a build up to a press conference, in which a group of supposedly "concerned" Senators, led by suspended Senator Nzeribe, would dissociate themselves, citing "patriotism" and "national unity", to break the ranks of Senators who had started the impeachment of General Obasanjo. The climax of the conspiracy was to be an address to a joint session of the National Assembly on Tuesday, 1 October 2002, in which General Obasanjo would be projected as a magnanimous leader, trying to forgive an unruly and naughty National Assembly. The Presidency also planned to use the PDP praise singers’ club to exonerate General Obasanjo, and to raise fresh blackmails against the National Assembly, especially the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and the Senate President. Phew! Wow!

More damning news of bribery and abuse of office emerged from the National Assembly as suspended Senator Francis Arthur Nzeribe, and his former colleagues in the Senate, went for each other’s throat. Suspended Senator Francis Arthur Nzeribe declared that N300 million was deployed to soften the hearts of at least 84 Senators, in order to stop the impeachment of General Olusegun Obasanjo (GCFR). According to him, out of that sum, Senate President Anyim Pius Anyim pocketed N60 million for himself, while other distinguished Senators got N3 million each. Phew! Wow! Chei!

The Deputy Senate President flatly denied ever collecting any bribes from suspended Senator Nzeribe. He expressed alarm that Senator Nzeribe would tell such blatant lies, with so much malevolence. Apparently, the conspiracy unfolded beyond the borders of Nigeria. Suspended Senator Nzeribe claimed that he coordinated the cooption of allies in a counter-plot to impeach the Senate President, in Brazil. Suspended Senator Nzeribe even bragged that he had N500,000,000 to distribute to 100 lawmakers.

Furthermore, suspended Senator Chief Francis Arthur Nzeribe insists that he neither defrauded the Senate of over N22 million, nor forged any document, as alleged by the Senate President, and that his innocence is borne out by the fact that the police has not arrested him yet, and that no legal charges have been made against him, as threatened by the Senate president earlier. Blah, blah, blah! How very cleaver, but silly. Unfortunately, there is no safety in numbers, and there cannot be any honour among thieves.

Suspended Senator Francis Arthur Nzeribe has argued that the process through which he was bribed is the same process used in bribing every Senator. And so, he insists that all Senators must be categorised and branded the same: Corrupt.

Chief Francis Arthur Nzeribe has opened the Pandora’s Box. However, the Senate President’s investigation revealed that certain amounts approved for suspended Senator Francis Arthur Nzeribe on vouchers, were either forged, or inflated.

The problem now is how to spot the "distinguished" liar: Is suspended Senator (Chief) Francis Arthur Nzeribe, or the Senate President, Chief (Lawyer) Ayim Pius Atim telling a lie, or are both of them telling the truth? By the way, beyond "Arthur" and "Francis", what are Chief Nzeribe’s IGBO first and middle names, and what is the impact of his theatre of the absurd on General Obasanjo’s foreign investor friends, vis-à-vis the investor attractiveness of Nigeria? Why is General Obasanjo suddenly quiet, deaf, and blind to the horrible innuendoes that link him to the cesspit in the National Assembly?

At any rate, according to a recent World Bank revelation, Nigerian government officials alone consume about US$12 billion annually (i.e. 80% of Nigeria’s yearly income from oil and gas). In other words, less than 1% of the Nigerian population enjoys about 80% of its revenue, while the remaining 99% of Nigeria makes do with just 20% of the wealth of the country. How generous!

The World Bank has suggested that Nigeria should, as a matter of uttermost urgency, create a leaner government instead of General Obasanjo’s over-bloated patronage-fixated state structure, which is bleeding the Nigerian treasury badly. At its present state, the Nigerian economy must grow at an almost impossible minimum rate of 10% annually, for the next 10 years, for its economic survival to be assured. It is up to Nigerians to make their leaders more accountable. It all depends on Nigerians whether or not they hold their leaders accountable.

Two wrongs do not make a right.

The essential objective of science is to predict why, when, and how things happen. Throughout history, scientists have laboured hard to improve on the techniques and precision of their predictions. From the magicians, hierophants, witches and wizards of the Dark Ages, to the mediaeval astrologers, and alchemist through Sir Isaac Newton, to modern day quantum physicists, the objective has essentially been the same: the capacity to predict.

In the mid 20^th century, a French applied mathematician, Dr. Rene Thom, started an apparently crazy quest for predicting sudden discontinuities in nature. Previously, scientists were comfortable with the prediction of smooth changes like the trajectory of planets, or the half-life of a radioactive material, or the outcomes of chemical reactions. However, Dr. Rene Thom wanted to predict, with reasonable precision, such abrupt changes like aggression, bankruptcy, cowardice, divorce, economic collapse, paranoia, prison riots, social unrest, schizophrenia, the sudden transition from peace to war (and vice versa), and several other everyday events in the lives of ordinary people, applying such fuzzy, and subjective parameters such as "fear", and "threat" as inputs for gaining insights into seemingly complex, and mathematically intractable problems. Dr. Rene Thom’s work is referred to in scientific circles as "The Catastrophe Theory": the mathematics of sudden change.

Applying the very basics of Dr. Rene Thom’s Catastrophe Theory to the Nigerian condition, the unique sporadic unfolding of group self-contradiction among Nigeria’s political elite, coupled with the high frequency of unpredictability, and changes in the polity, are all symptomatic of paranoia. Paranoia may be induced effectively by the simultaneous injection of fear, and threat into the minds of normal humans. Nigerians, especially their leaders, badly need someone who can speedily minimise the fears and threats that have lurked in their brains for close to half a century now. General Obasanjo has shown his limitations. Paradoxically, General Obasanjo has, without meaning to do so, shown Nigerians the root cause of the country’s political enigma: The Nigerian politician’s fear of life without autocratic licence, and privilege.

Thanks to nascent democracy!

 November 2002