Before the Eclipse
by
This is a warning! Nigeria has suffered a massive democratic closure. This is like a heart attack and should be viewed seriously as the patient (Nigeria) is on life support instrument in the emergency wards.
This diagnosis is based on current events. Nigeria's case history is a long and continued one of missed opportunities as I chronicled in Misgovernment, (1993) and Missing Fundamentals (1999). I will next write about how the new "EFFICIENT LEFT" can build on the "Old Left Ideas" and use new concepts to get things right, and avoid the eclipse. But let me tell you about misgovernment.
Babra Tuchman, the late distinguished American historian, said that misgovernment is of four kinds, often in combination, Tyranny or oppression, Excessive ambition, Incompetence or decadence, folly or perversity.
Policy commentators describe misgovernment as the pursuit of policy contrary to public interest. They ask why holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests. Surveying history, Tuchman explored this paradox and identified Folly's hallmark: the self- destructive act carried out despite the availability of a recognised and feasible alternative.
It is plain that most politicians have no interest in good governance today but re-election in 2003. This is folly in full amplitude. Folly or perversity is at its worst when individual sovereignty overpower national institutions. Our politicians have so thoroughly overwhelmed and undermined our national institutions that they have caused Nigeria to back slide on the four cycles of democratic consolidation. Nigeria has indeed suffered a heart attack.
The four movements on democracy's consolidation table may be described as first, authoritarianism, characterised by dictatorship, (1983 - 1998). The process that brought Pre-sident Obasanjo to power was a transition from authoritarian to semi-democratic rule. Democracy scholars refer to this phase as formal democracy in that you have an illusion of democracy without real democracy. Political choices are severely limited by an uneven field of play. The political leaders often sound and act like military dictators only that they wear civilian clothing. Electoral processes are limited and no competition is allowed. The present danger in Nigeria is posed by threats caused by the folly of politicians who want to cordon off the electoral space in 2003 by crowding out the rest of us. The challenge therefore, is to urgently deepen democracy's processes and institutions. If we succeed, we would have reached stage three of the cycle in 2003 namely: liberal democracy, which is characterised by open political competition. The consolidation oscillation would have moved from authoritarian through semi-democratic to liberal and possibly advanced democracy, the last stage, where the rules of the game recognise full political and economic competition. But democracy often backslides. This has happened in Nigeria and we are all challenged to ask if this democracy is really working. I do not think so. Rather, we have moved from semi-democratic to semi- authoritarian status in Nigeria. Indeed, we are just a step ahead of a full backslide if Arthur Nzeribe's present scheme to foist, a sole presidential candidate on us succeeds. And it just might.
Nigeria is in deep trouble. I arrived at this grave conclusion by looking at the symptoms plaguing Nigeria; executive-legislative clash, weak political parties, electoral autocracy, failure to manage pluralism, slow constitutional reform process, ethnic and religion tensions, continued centripetal federalism, seen in failure to decentralise and devolve federal powers, social exclusion and barriers to participation, marked by mass poverty, unemployment, failed infrastructure and social services. The failure to strengthen democratic institutions and engage actors in, civil society, media, labour, women, students, business and judicial systems, is a signal weakness of the political system.
So I ask, how do we confront the challenges of democracy? Will reinventing federalism provide the answers? Will models of federalism help?, say, Russia's Council of the Federation, in which centralised democracy co-opts regional blocks or in the United States in which the 10th amendment excludes the federal government from the scope of powers reserved to the states; the so-called reserved powers protection; or will India's Finance Commission/Fiscal Federation model help with our difficulties with resource allocation? Then Mexico's principle of subsidiarity, which leave to the states what they can do best and to the centre, common national issues.
If we question how we might support Nigeria's ailing democracy, I will answer by suggesting that civil society and the media must begin to make those demands, which the political opposition in Nigeria cannot or will not make. We need to demand constitutional reforms and electoral reforms as a starting point and see to it that the Arthur Nzeribe's do not reduce the elections of 2003 to a farce. This is Nigeria's final chance.