Can We Handle It?:

By

Kòmbò Mason Braide (PhD)

Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Mind-Boggling Scenarios:

Instinctively, decision makers and students of strategic planning always consider three (3) scenarios (i.e. best case, probable, and worst case scenarios), before proffering, or implementing any solutions, no matter how brilliant, or workable their ideas might seem. But then, none of the top contenders for Nigeria’s presidency, some of them, ex-Heads of military dictatorships in Nigeria, is a Business School graduate. Nevertheless, we believe that they must be conversant with the critical need for anticipating alternative outcomes when planning a military assault, or scheming a coup d’état.

Since they have failed to give Nigerians a believable summary of the possible outcomes of their present cantankerous, and/or bellicose postures, we will come to their rescue, and present the following scenarios for their enlightenment, in the interest of peace and progress in Nigeria.

Best Case Scenario:

In the best case scenario, General Olusegun Obasanjo has a genuine Christian conversion experience. Suddenly, following a blinding burst of laser light, accompanied by thunderous celestial music from deeper space, General Obasanjo miraculously regains consciousness (and patriotism), and realises that peace is far better than being blown to smithereens by state-engineered anarchy.

Consequently, he calls an emergency meeting of the out-going National Assembly, the PDP Board of Trustees, and the National Council of States (comprising five (5) retired military dictators, who are veterans of the First Nigerian Civil War, one (1) military-installed civilian stooge, and only one (1) democratically and constitutionally elected septuagenarian civilian ex-President of Nigeria).

General Olusegun Obasanjo then solicits, and wholeheartedly accepts letters of resignation from the Minister of Defence, the National Security Adviser, the Inspector General of Police, the Director General of SSS, the Comptroller-General of the Department of Customs, the elections-wining campaign management team of "Obasanjo/Atiku Consolidation & Continuity 2003", the Chairman of PDP, and the Minister of National Orientation.

He then directs members of his cabinet, including his armada of senior advisers, special advisers, senior special advisers, special senior advisers, special assistants, senior special assistants, personal assistants, ADC, Chief of Staff, Chief Security Officer, official praise singers, the drivers, and security personnel of the presidential convoy, and the Chairman of INEC, to honourably personally hand in their pre-signed letters of resignation to him, in the full glare of the world press.

Also, the National Assembly declares the National Council of States (NCS) an absurdity, and an illegality, given that some of its members also shamelessly partake in active partisan politics, and at the same time pretend to be elder statesmen. Consequently, the National Assembly signs into law, the dissolution of the National Council of States, as presently incestuously constituted: i.e. a conclave of morally stale, ego tripping, ideologically vacuous ex-military dictators, and foxy geriatric autocrats. The President endorses the formal dissolution of the NCS, and ensures it dismantlement accordingly, leaving only His Excellency, Alhaji Shehu Shagari (GCFR) as the sole survivor after the shake-up.

In his new religious fervour, truly born-again General Olusegun Obasanjo (GCFR), in line with his anti-corruption posture, in his capacity as an eminent statesman in the making, and a reformed member of the board of Transparency International, tells the Attorney General of the Federation to speedily prepare water-tight charges against the top ten donors to the Continuity 2003 presidential campaign project, particularly some local "core investors", including several other chronic tax-evading rascals, whose business ethics, personal morals, and treasury-draining records are like a public toilet frequently used by genetically unmodified pigs. They are cordially invited to discuss the payment schedule of their outstanding tax defaults, mercifully limited to only 30% of their respective presidential campaign donations, for the sake of the peace, unity, and stability of Nigeria.

To show the whole wide world that indeed the spirit of the Lord Jesus Christ has gotten right into his head, General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo exercises his executive prerogative to start a massive reconstruction, rehabilitation, and reconciliation project in the Niger Delta region, so that Nigerians, indeed, the whole world will truly testify that the Lord Jesus Christ has finally truly infiltrated both his conscience, and his consciousness, despite all odds.

General Obasanjo uses his clout to get local and international institutions to rebuild Nigeria’s decrepit economy, and also resurrect from the dead, the country’s industrial infrastructure, particularly the local refineries, since one of his major slogans is to "liberate" Nigeria from the grip of "fuel scarcity". With no holds barred, full speed ahead is ordered for the development of a workable national strategic development plan, a la "Vision 2010", followed by the production, for the very first time ever, since 1914, of a proper constitution that is approved by Nigerians, through a referendum of acceptability.

It will be recalled that Nigeria’s post-independence medium term (5-year) national development plans suddenly ceased to form the basis of continuity in governance and/or national planning, ever since the then Brigadier Olu Obasanjo led a military junta in Nigeria, over a quarter of a century ago, following a mutiny, and assassinations, glaringly aided, and abetted by external democracy-loving interests.

Moreover, the Independence Constitution, upon which the principles and modes of federal association were predicated, (which were duly negotiated among the various peoples of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, prior to independence), was unconstitutional jettisoned, or rather, discarded by General Obasanjo in 1979, without any referendum. His so-called 1979 constitution surreptitiously force-fed a US-style executive presidential system on Nigerians, but was subsequently subverted in 1983, with over-assuming audacity, by Major General Mohammadu Buhari, the presumed loser of the April 19 2003 (4-19) presidential elections in Nigeria.

On completion of the above divine injunctions, General Aremu Olusegun Mathew Okikiolahan Obasanjo (GCFR) gallantly, patriotically, humbly, and honourably abdicates his presidency before Wednesday, 28 May 2003, after a quiet prayer in the Aso Rock Chapel, the Villa, Abuja.

In essence, in this best case scenario, the timely intervention of God Almighty, via a little tête-à-tête with General Olusegun Aremu Obasanjo, in the quiet ambience of his very kámpé presidential suite in far away Washington DC, has really done a lot of good, and thereafter, Nigerians breathe a collective sigh of relief that reverberates throughout the planet, indeed, across the known universe.

To God, be the glory!

That is the end of our "best case scenario", and it cannot get much better than that.

Probable Scenario:

In this scenario, there is no divine intervention. Nigeria will proceed with the outcome of the 2003 general elections as announced by INEC. However, since Nigerians do not happen to be pushovers, the incumbent President has armoury loads of weapons (of mass action), in readiness for any eventuality.

Meanwhile, Major General Mohammadu Buhari follows through with his threat of "mass action". Specially hand-picked hard core members of the Nigerian status quo prevail on General Obasanjo "not to kill a ranting ant with a sledge hammer". Of course, the Nigerian power elite are not dumb. They ask themselves: "What is the use of burning up Nigeria? Then we will have no one to rule. (God forbid). In a Nigeria blown to pieces, there would be no Nigerian slave left to serve us, the Nigerian nouveau riche. In the confusion of the moment, the grizzly remains of our dead party supporters, and thugs will litter the streets of Nigeria". (God forbid bad thing.)".

As usual, the so-called independent mass media of the so-called "Lagos-Ibadan", "Abuja-Kaduna", and "Port Harcourt-Yenagoa" axes help propagate the anaesthetic gospel of the "indivisibility of our potentially great country" to Nigerians, in the spirit of "patriotism", and "responsible journalism".

In other words, as usual, General Obasanjo would be persuaded to "let sleeping dogs lie; let bye-gone be bye-gone, for the sake of Nigeria’s wobbly unity, nascent democracy, and corporate existence. No victor no vanquished. Reconciliation. Warm embrace. Rehabilitation. Blah, blah, blah". And then, nothing happens: Back to "business as usual"! Back to "Square One!"

Major General Buhari is duly "rehabilitated" as the Minister of Petroleum Resources, and the pioneer Chairman of a new, improved, and expanded Petroleum Products and Crude Oil Sales Trust Fund (PPCOTF), with maximum empowerment this time around. He patriotically accepts the offer, for the sake of unborn generations of Nigerians. (Wow! We have broken the civilian-to-civilian jinx: Buhari!)

Incidentally, since Nigerian politics has been taken into the realm of cyberspace (e.g. INEC, and presidential campaign web sites; cyber-news, cyber-analyses and cyber-commentaries), Nigerians will now be better aware of the power, speed and range of influence of data, information, and knowledge propagated in cyberspace. Therefore, hereafter, Nigerians will find ways to manipulate data, information, and knowledge systems that can affect their social, economic, and political well-being. In other words, cyber-crime will be one likely offshoot, even if unexpected, of Elections 2003 in Nigeria.

Disgruntled politicians and disenfranchised Nigerians may resort to cyber-terrorism in expressing their perceived grievances. And so, the financial sector will not be able to operate safely anymore, and business will gradually come to a grind as the information and telecommunications technology systems in Nigeria get progressively vulnerable to deliberate sabotage. The result is predictable: chaos!

At any rate, Nigeria will continue to "manage", as usual. Sporadic acts of urban terrorism will go off like fire crackers on April 19 (4-19) of every year, all over Nigeria, in tandem with the usual terror red alerts of September 11 (9-11) of every year, in the USA.

Paranoia would pervade the country. Mayhem would permeate Nigeria, right to the villages. Thursday, May 29 2003 AD, instead of being referred to as "Democracy Day", like two others before it, will be renamed "Day 1 of the Nigerian Dark Ages (NDA)". The new Nigerian calendar will have that date as Monday, 1st day of the new January, 001 NDA.

That is our "probable scenario", and, of course, the possibilities are various.

Worst Case Scenario:

There are no big surprises in the worst case scenario: It is "business unusual, as usual". In this worst case scenario, Major General Buhari successfully overheats the Nigerian polity, north and south. ANPP loses out at the Elections Tribunals. Triumphant PDP hawks celebrate at post-landslide victory galas, at NICON Hilton, Abuja, Sheraton, Lagos, Obasanjo Farms Nigeria (OFN), Otta, Le Méridien, Port Harcourt, and Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.

An attempted phantom coup d’état fails woefully. As usual, even though undemocratic, many heads roll, and Major General Buhari is democratically arrested, and jailed for ten solid (10) years, with hard labour, for his own good, in the VIP wing of Abakaliki Prison, Ebonyi State, as duly judged and sentenced, by the Supreme Court of Nigeria. Subsequently, sporadic outbursts of general mayhem, and various other premeditated acts of "mass action" erupt in protest, in the traditional ethnic cleansing centres of Nigeria.

As usual, General Obasanjo would not bother to listen to the loud groans emanating from the depths of the mangrove swamps of the Niger Delta. As the President-in-charge, and (more importantly) as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, he reasons that as long as he has a few machine guns, mortar bombs, grenades, armoured cars, patrol boats, and helicopter gun ships, why not use them "patriotically"? After all, he can get a little return on his investment, in the good old "free market economy" way: i.e. "Fire-for-fire".

Given recent events, the swamp dwellers of the Niger Delta could find reasonable justification to throw a few grenades, or/and launch a couple of bazookas, or/and even lunch a few mortar bombs, and/or shoulder-launched surface-to-surface missiles, or/and surface-to-air missiles at a couple of onshore oil rigs, or/and at a few offshore oil rigs, and/or even at an aircraft, or two, from time to time, as the need may arise.

Of course, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, whose interests are being unduly threatened, will, once again, be most willing to speedily form a "coalition", so as to get into the business of "liberating" Nigerians quickly, from the terror of their leaders, and their aggrieved terrorist fellow countrymen, for the benefit of humankind, in view of the massive crude oil, condensates, and natural gas reservoirs that are conveniently located offshore Nigeria, in the Bights of Biafra, and Benin, in the Gulf of Guinea, in the mid-Atlantic Ocean: i.e. in the middle of No-Man’s-Land. (No wonder, there is "onshore-offshore dichotomy"! Now, we know!)

Subsequently, the numerous giant presidential and gubernatorial elections campaign billboards and posters that littered the Nigerian landscape, before and after the 2003 elections, would start coming down, in the same manner as those of the immediate past megalomaniac predatory autocrat of Iraq did.

Of course, there would be massive looting of private mansions, markets, warehouses, tokumbo car sales open air show rooms, shops, public and private art galleries, government properties, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) vaults scattered across the country. Virulent witch-hunting ill will happen. Most likely, the only survivors will be the cockroaches.

Ultimately, there is an irreversible national catastrophe: the total collapse of the Nigerian system, indeed, the West Africa sub-region, as we know it today. Nigeria gets to be fully Rwandarised firstly, then "liberated", just in time, by the "Coalition of the Willing Few", in exchange for the offshore oil fields in the Bights of Biafra, and Benin, as part-payment for the cost of "liberation"!

Executive Request:

As you can see, the worst-case scenario is not all that too bad after all, since none of us will be around to wonder how to put Nigeria back together again. (The "Coalition" is willing to do it for a fee.)

By the way, does His Excellency, Mr. President, have a better answer than the above scenarios we have tried to present here for the citizens of Nigeria?

If so, then Mr. President should please tell us urgently, if we can handle it.

Can we handle it?

I welcome your comments (via e-mail: kombomasonbraide@msn.com), and encourage this article to be freely reproduced, published, photocopied, scanned, faxed, reprinted, reformatted, broadcast, digitised, uploaded or downloaded, in whatever manner or form, with or without acknowledgement, or further permission.

Appendix:

The Divine Tête-à-tête:

In this scenario, while engaging in one of his rather noisy conversations with God in Aso Rock Chapel, Abuja, God, in His infinite wisdom, and usually mysterious way, injects the following thoughts into General Olusegun Okikiolahan Aremu Mathew Obasanjo:

Aremu! You have been relying on a number of biblical passages to plot your plans against your political opponents, Mohammadu and 28 others. I do not want you to go overboard and continue to develop your decisions without also considering some other equally significant biblical verses. I will refer them to you, and then let you decide how you will handle it". (1, 2 &3)

In many of the passages, I tried to impress on earth beings that they should always show tender loving kindness and mercy, even to those they consider their enemies. Now, I know that you are not going to come across a major adversary, whose ass has gone astray. (OK, Olusegun. Come on now; wipe that silly smile off your face; an ass is a donkey!)

I decreed that you should take back that donkey to its owner, even if you two hate each other very passionately. Now, Okikiolahan, you need to apply that teaching to the current situation in Nigeria. So, go ahead, and hug Mohammadu, Chukwuemeka, and Gani.

I insist that nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war again. Now, I know that you do not use old-fashioned battle plans any more, and that the Nigerian armed forces do not fight with swords. But please, Aremu, figure out how you can apply my words in 2003, in Nigeria.

Let me just quote one more of my favourite prophets, Amos, to you: "Let justice roll down like the waters, and righteousness like an ever-flowing stream."

References:

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May 2003