Cross River at Crossroads
By
The normal quiet ambience of Cross River political scene was shattered penultimate week. In two instances of escalating political crisis the state Governor Donald Duke was attacked; and at another political rally, order broke down and two lives were reportedly lost in a fracas.
In the nearly four years of this dispensation, Cross River was a model of peace and tranquility. But with elections around the corner, politicians, aggrieved or desperate are reportedly employing every tool available including violence to make their point. Cross River, the recent host of the botched Miss World beauty pageant, would certainly not have been highly rated and accepted as a centre for such a fiesta had the state established itself as a centre of instability and violence.
For the watchers of Cross River politics, the seed of incipient crisis was sown long time ago, and is now manifesting at a very critical movement. The main point of dispute by those who hold their grudge against the governor is his style which they say tended to alienate some power brokers in the state.
However, on the matter of statecraft there is some evidence even though some disputes still exist that Governor Donald Duke, has some idea of what to do to turn around the state. His policy on agriculture has received praises and is considered far reaching in terms of scope and investment.
From inception, the state government moved in the direction of harnessing the huge land mass and favourable weather to cultivate cash crops like cashew, pineapple orchid etc.
Part of the government’s policy it promised was that it would set up or help facilitate the building of semi-processing industries to turn these cash crops into processed products, for export and for local consumption. The thinking behind this policy the administration explained is that rather than just export the crops as mere commodities which may not earn high return on foreign exchange, if it is processed the value addition would make it more competitive in the global market.
But, and this is significant, the opposition sneezes at the suggestion by the state government that it has done so much to improve agriculture and earn foreign exchange from it. They query the administrations claims arguing if Cross River state has earned anything from agriculture, why is the state still poor and wholly dependent on federal allocation? Why is unemployment amongst urban and rural youths still high. Chief John Okpa, Duke’s erstwhile deputy, claims that a third of young people in the state are without jobs. So, if this estimate is correct it means, that well over 400,000 people are without jobs in the state of about 2 million people.
But Duke on issues like this, exhibits confidence about the record of his government in reducing poverty and unemployment. He once enthused in an interview that his joy is that in under three years of introducing this policy, a number of people have through it broken the poverty circle. He claims to have received report about people who had by embracing the agriculture schemes built houses and bought cars.
Even though, Governor Duke sees some of his achievements as modest, he insists that his opponents cannot challenge him over questions of performance. Duke tells anyone who cares to listen that his state is the fastest growing economy outside the core oil producing states.
He claims he persuaded the federal government to change the Calabar Export Processing Zone to Export Free Zone. A change that encouraged substantial growth in the number of companies that are operating in the area. A development that helped reduce unemployment as the companies setting up shops are depending more on locals to sustain some of their operations, he says. Expatiating further on his drive to reduce unemployment Duke says the efforts of his administration encouraged Dangote Cement to site a multi-billion naira industry in his state. Nevertheless, despite the governors record, the actual index of reduction in unemployment is not available.
On another level the Duke administration considers the Miss World pageant a good advertisement of the state’s tourist potential. But his opponents demure, arguing that it was a frivolous expenditure of the state’s scarce resources. They claim that the cost benefit analysis shows that it(Miss World show) was a white elephant project, which has not yield reasonable returns to the state. Indeed, the decision of the state governor to go to London to watch the grand finale after the event was cancelled in Nigeria following anti-Miss World protest in Kaduna and Abuja was heavily criticised.
What some observers say could not be taken away is that because of the Miss World the state government was nudged to pay more attention to resuscitating critical tourist attractions like Obudu Ranch. The governor impressed by the level of renovation, once quipped that the ranch would by the time the changes are completed be Nigeria’s tourist destination. In recent days, the state government has begun promoting Obudu ranch as ready to receive guests and offer excellent services. For the moment the idea has not caught on yet, but the potential is there.
Aside the brick bats over performance, the real issue it is believed in Cross River politics is power play between Duke and in many instances his estrange loyalists. With election to hold in a matter of weeks the battle cry in Cross River is between continuity and regime change.
The Duke/Okpa ticket, which won the 1999 governorship election very shortly on assuming office disintegrated. Some how the real reason why this affair went sour has never fully been disclosed to Nigerians. The closet anyone came to understanding the problem was the unsubstantiated allegation that Okpa wanted to be governor in 2003. However, it was an allegation Okpa strenuously denied. Initially, both men adopted submarine tactics on this matter: they quarrelled privately, but in public gave the impression the team was intact. Very shortly, however this make belief was removed and the duo began sniping at each other on the pages of the papers.
Though while the differences lasted, Okpa got the short end of the stick. He claims that his office was denied all recognition and statutory grants due to it. Duke denied that he tempered with his deputy’s entitlements, maintaining that despite differences he has to respect his deputy’s office.
At another point, when this matter was getting out of hand Okpa alleged that Senator Liyel Imoke, one of President Obasanjo’s senior aide was the unseen hand behind his troubles with the governor. At this time also there was rumours that Imoke was positioning himself to run against Duke in 2003; subsequently the story changed that Imoke was eyeing 2007, and was positioning himself to succeed Duke after the governor’s second term. Whatever the case the relationship between the two is quite close and might have been the source of the stories flying around.
Yet, as everyone in Calabar says, Okpa in 1998, was key in stabilising the Duke’s campaign that was floundering. Duke who had a stint in 1991-1993 under Clement Ebiri as commissioner of finance was never a ‘home boy.’ His grip on grass roots politics of Cross River was said to be shallow and his running for governorship would have ended in defeat had Okpa not been drafted in the story goes.
Perhaps in accepting to be Duke’s deputy was Okpa’s miscalculation; because in deftly pulling out the chest nut out of the fire for Duke, helped to instigate the envy of core Duke forces, who feared that Okpa’s growing influence could hem in the governor, the former deputy governor’s supporters aver. Or the quarrel resulted as some conspiracy theories hold that Duke never believed his former deputy has the mental acuity to run a state like Cross River, especially if in the governor’s estimation there is somebody more capable around. Indeed, some nugget of the governor’s thinking slipped out sometime ago when he urged the people of the state not to allow people with dubious credentials to win office.
Even as Duke, the seeming novice was dismantling the Okpa structure around him, some other forces who never believed he (Duke) could make it were getting short shrift as well. Rev Ikobia, the pioneer PDP state chairman was being shafted by pro-Duke forces; Senator Musa Adede, Chief Kanu Agabi, Federal Attorney General amongst others fell out with Duke.
But to be fair to the governor, it is said that the situation he met working with these men was impossible for him to operate. It is believed he felt suffocated and doubted the success of his political future if he allowed some of these men to have such control over party and other power structures. Some analysts, who support Duke’s aggressive take over of the party structure cite the Mala Kachalla of Borno State and Chinwoke Mbadinuju of Anambra state, two governors who found themselves out on a limb at a crucial moment of their political life.
While Duke was alienating some elders of the state, he was counter balancing his hold by recruiting some others into his camp. For example, Senator Joseph Wayas, second republic Senate President, who was in ANPP crossed over to PDP and has since moved into big things within the party. As a young man, Duke’s main supporters are from the ranks of young people. It is said by his supporters that the governor since assuming office has worked to recruit into his camp young, agile and aggressive people as foot soldiers. In fact, one of the reasons he gave for not supporting Ikobi, was that the man is old and should give way to younger people with energy to deepen the party at the grass roots. However, Duke’s reason did not wash with the opposition, who left the party after several attempts at reconciliation failed.
With the failure of internal party mechanism of PDP to solve these problems, Okpa who initially professed his desire to stay on the ticket with Duke had to leave. But the manner of his exit was untidy. Okpa switched party and still refused to resign his office as deputy governor until the House of Assembly threatened impeachment. But by far the greatest obstacle to Duke’s re-election bid is the ethnicisation of the politics of the state. Duke, an Efik is a clear minority and cannot on the strength of his ethnic stock win power in the state.
On the other hand those opposed to him has cleverly constituted a platform which they called Atam People’s Congress, (APC) as a rallying force for the peoples of northern and central Cross River. In playing this card, those involved are mobilising their people on the grounds that power must shift from Cross River South to North in 2003. They assert that nothing has accrued to them from Duke’s government. A claim some Duke loyalists dismiss. They point at Obudu cattle ranch and the strategic Monikaya bridge, amongst other infrastructure development the state government had initiated to reduce poverty and open up northern Cross River to development.
Despite these claims and counter positions by the two sides it does seem as if the people sponsoring APC are making substantial inroad in getting their people to stand with them. If they succeed as is feared in many quarters, Duke might end up a one term governor. At the present time APC has stalwarts like John Okpa, General Edward Unimna (rtd), Maj. General Anthony Ukpo, Senator Musa Adede, Major Akpan Obi Odu, Prince Eyo Okon Eyo.
In fact, it is said that in a place like Akpabuyo for instance, Duke has lost a lot of ground to a budding politician like Okon Eyo, despite his many foot soldiers.
But on balance of forces, Duke is believed to have a slight edge, how much of that is uncertain. The balance of forces in Cross River is so narrow according to some sources that the only way Duke can be re-elected is if he rigs. That maybe a little far fetched, but the views sampled by Vanguard appears to indicate that such a belief exist in real terms. What however cannot be ignored is that as governor, Duke has the patronage and the reach not available to his opponents, especially amongst the young people.
Curiously, one politician who has demonstrated resilience is Okpa. As far as anyone can say Okpa never had the kind of resources to run an effective campaign despite his grass root network. His emergence as ANPP candidate in a state that party marginally lost to the PDP in 1999, was a surprise. The other strong contender to Duke is Akpa Obi Odu, of NDP, who was immediate past ambassador to South Korea. But Obi Odu’s campaign is not particularly strong, as there appear to be some undisclosed alliance between him and Okpa. On the whole the struggle to win Cross River government house may turn out to be harder for all than originally thought.
April 2003