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The Economic Impact of the September 11th Terrorist Attack on America By
"It's not whether you get knocked down. It's whether you get up again." Vince Lombardi
Brief Synoptic: The whole world was flabbergasted and sickened by the horror of the September 11th terrorist attack, an operation of unparalleled adulteration on the heartland of America. The astonishment centered on the organized method of the attack, sophisticated and the amount of collateral damage inflicted. The Courier News of September 27, 2001, pB2 reported that "IMF compared the attacks to the costliest natural disaster in modern history, the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan. That quake caused over 6,400 deaths, 35,000 injuries and property damage of $120 billion."
Usually, the experts tend to equate terrorist act or the whole concept of terrorism with illiterate Islamic fanatics. This point of view holds that terrorists tend to be unemployed youths with bleak future, or have a narrow-minded perception of the world. They were regarded as weak-minded individuals that could be easily manipulated with blanket promises with citation accredited to the Holy Koran that every Moslem in a lifetime must participate in a jihad or a holy war. They are promised that those who die while fighting a holy war as defined by the false Islamic leaders that encourage terrorists acts, would automatically become myther and ascend to heaven to a perpetual bliss.
People, not just Moslems do pernicious things in the name of religion. We have Christian fanatics such as in Northern Ireland where Catholics and the Protestants have been killing one another for centuries. Yet, both group pray to God through his son, Jesus Christ, asking for forgiveness and a chance to be admitted into the kingdom of God.
Then, there are Middle East fanatics especially, the Palestinians who strap themselves with dynamites and blow themselves up in Israel among innocent civilians. There are also the Jewish fanatics who are bent on achieving the biblical writings of a Promised Land. The later group would do anything to achieve their obfuscated goal including killing, displacement and confiscation of Palestinian land.
The attack on the World Trade Center (WTC) in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC ranked among the highest man made tragedies by despondent and deranged individuals in the history of mankind. It marked the transformation of the term terrorism, as we know it and perhaps, the beginning of an end to this horrific tactics in human endeavor. It redefined the perception and meaning of terrorism. According to the Los Angeles Times of September 19, 2001, the United States of America lawmakers gave President Bush a blanket authority to combat terrorism. They implore Bush to be prudent and exercise caution by making response decision devoid to emotion. They argued that it would be unwise to kill innocent people indiscriminately in the name of revenge.
This is the second such attack on WTC. The first occurred in February 1993 where bomb was planted on the WTC garage, an explosion that cost six lives and 1,000 injuries. Ramzi Yousef, the master mind of the 1993 attack and his cohorts were apprehended, tried and are now serving prison sentences that would never allow them to see the outside world until their death. Again, this is not the first or the second time institutions around the WTC has come under attack by terrorists who are bent on crippling the United States symbol of civilization and economic power. The TIMES of March 8, 1993 reported that "the walls of the Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. are still scarred from the effects of a bomb that was hidden in a horse-drawn wagon on September 16, 1920. When it exploded into a lunch-time crowd, 40 people died and 200 were injured."
This essay among other things would explore the initial economic impact of the September 11th terrorist attack in the heartland of America.
First, the attackers are educated. According to news reports, most of the terrorists migrated to the USA with either student or visiting visas. They enrolled in pilot training schools in Florida and perhaps Michigan where they learned how to maneuver jumbo airplanes, which was hijacked and used in the September 11 attack. According to various news outlets, the nineteen terrorists that hijacked American Airline Flight 11 that crashed into WTC; United Airline Flight 175 that crashed into WTC; American Airline Flight 77 that crashed into Pentagon and United Airline Flight 93 that crashed near Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania were Arabs from the middle east and north Africa. North Africa is now becoming the hot bed for terrorist recruits as poverty and the ravages of wars have made it possible for youths from this region to accept radical religious fundamentalism as the only alternative for eternal salvation.
Second, the event of September 11 taught the world a valuable lesson. It showed the vulnerability of people and countries to terrorist attacks. It showed that no matter the sophistication or fortification of a nation’s national security, and defense and intelligence network, terrorist attack could not be deterred. That does not mean that they would not be apprehended, however, by the time that happens, the damage has been done and that is exactly what happened in the United States of America on September 11, 2001. In a nutshell, if this heinous act could happen in the USA with all its sophisticated high tech intelligence apparatus, then it could happen anywhere, and with ease too.
Third, the attack also featured one significant lesson: how do one distinguish a diabolic person whose goal in life is to obliterate others from the regular person who obey the law and live by it? According to various news sources on September 21, 2001, Mayor Rudolph Guguliani of New York City stated that the total amount of people missing in the New York carnage was 6,333. That list has since been reversed to less than 5,000, where some of the recovered bodies are pending DNA identification. Also included on the list of the dead are 265 firefighters and 85 police officers whose job were to save lives, but unfortunately ended up among the casualties (TIMES, September 24, 2001). So far less than 380 bodies from the World Trade Center have been recovered by the rescuers. In the Pentagon attack, 189 bodies have been confirmed so far and 44 perished in the air crash near Pittsburgh.
The Economic Impact The effect of the September 11 terrorist attack in New York and Washington DC, the economic and political nerve centers of the world respectively, have reverberated throughout the world. According to The Courier News of September 21, 2001 pB2, "informal estimates by Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee illustrate the potential cost and lightning speed with which the government's (USA) books could turn upside down…besides the $40 billion emergency package USA Congress enacted last week, there could be roughly $20 billion in aid to the ailing airline industry; an extra $20 billion for the Pentagon; and $20 billion added to next year's routine spending bills for education, agriculture and other increases." In essence, we are talking of approximately $100 billion plus the cost of hiring new marshals, airport security and the war abroad termed operation Enduring Freedom.
It went further to argue that the federal revenue (intake) would decline from $50 billion to $60 billion next year. This projected revenue decline would further decline if the U.S. Congress approve President Bush's $60 to $70 billion economic stimulus package. The Bush proposal would include more tax cuts and reduction on capital gains tax. Both cuts effect the federal revenue intake.
The attack had a profound impact on the airline industry, which were already suffering from the pinch of labor disputes, lackluster economic slow-down and general decline from air travel. All these happened when the USA economy was beginning to slow down despite Bush administration’s tax cut that was suppose to prop up the economy. Unfortunately, the tax rebate coupled with a series of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts did little to boast the economy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in August 2001 that the country’s unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent and it has been argued would reach 5.3 percent for October.
The Chicago Sun-Times (September 28, 2001, p58) noted that "the Conference Boards in New York said … that newspaper want ads, a key barometer of the job market and the economy, had sunk to an 18-year low in August, even before the attack... the Labor Department reported that for the work week ending September 22, new jobless claims jumped by a seasonally adjustment 58,000 to 450,000, the highest level since July 25, 1992. This figure is expected to go up as soon as all the ramifications of the attack such as filing of unemployment claims by the recent job lay off kick in. The Courier News of October 5, 2001, pB2 reported that "… the number of Americans filling for unemployment claims shot up to a nine-year high of 528,000, last week."
Less than a week following the worst terrorist attack in the United States, the already volatile economy experienced more turbulence as the airline industry began positioning themselves avert bankruptcy. They began to lay off thousands of employees. It has been estimated that by the time the dust settles, close to 100,000 airline employees would lose their jobs.
Tim Goodyear, a spoke person for the International Air Transport Association in Geneva, said during its recent meeting in Belgium that the airline stood to lose about $11 billion by the end of the year. This estimate does not include the effect on United States domestic flights that is currently anemic due to lack of public confidence to fly again (Courier pB2). Furthermore, Leo mullin, the chairman and CEO of Delta Airlines told the House Transportation Committee on September 19, 2001 that the fallout from the hijack attack would cost the airline industry between $18 to $33 billion this year (Courier, September 20, 2001, pB3).
According to the Washington Post news report of September 18, 2001, pA1, the entire airline industries has an annual revenue of about $125 billions, with a workforce of approximately 1.2 million people. This calculation does not include the hotels, casinos, independent contractor, cruise lines and other forms of tourism that are directly connected to the smooth running of airlines operation. It has been argued that it would take the airlines and other symbiotic industries roughly six months to one year to fully recuperate from the adversity of the terrorist attack of September 11. For instance, according to Mr. Mullin, Delta Airline used to average approximately 300,000 domestic passengers per day prior to the attack. Today, they average 140,000, about 33 percent to 35 percent of its full capacity. When combined with international passengers, it used to average 1.3 million compared to 561,932 passengers as of September 18, 2001(Chicago Sun-Times. September 27, 2001 p51).
Days following the September 11 attack; the airlines began to lay off their employees. The biggest of all came from Boeing, the manufacturer of the jumbo airplanes that was hijacked and used in the terrorist attacks on the WTC, the Pentagon and flight 93 that went down near Pittsburgh. According to CNN world news of September 18, 2001 and Chicago Sun-Times of September 27, 2001 p51, Boeing planned to lay off about 31,000 employees, a process that would continue until the end of 2002. United Airline whose airplane was used in the attack laid off 20,000; Continental Air furloughed 12,000; US Air laid off 11,000; American West laid off 2,000 and Virgin Atlantic Airline planned to lay off 1,200 of its 6,000 employees. Others are American Corp. which include American, American Eagle, TWA would lay off 20,000; Delta up to 13,000; Northwest 10,000; British Airways 7,000; Air Canada 9,000; Bombardier 3,800; Swissair 3,000; Textron 2,500; Sebena 2,000 and Midway would shut down which would affect 1,700 employees. As a whole about 100,000 peoples would see the pink slips by the time the lay off ends.
The bad time is not confined to airline industries only. It was projected that New York City, according to the New York Times of September 19, 2001 would incur the most adverse affect from this attack. Its $25 billion per year tourism would be reduced substantially as many people tend to stay away from the city or fly in airplane. The Courier News of October 5, 2001, p1 projected that the New York City economy would lose approximately $105 billions over the next two years.
The LA Times of September 19, 2001 reported that the US cruise industry was affected by the terrorist attack. Its booking declined and its stock fell by 40 to 50 percent. For instance the share of the "Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. and P & O Princess Cruise went down 32 to 40 percent" on Monday September 17, 2001. Micky Arison, the chairman and CEO of Miami-based Carnival contended that its company's booking dropped by 60 percent compared to what they used to have at this time of the year.
According to Commercial Mortgage Alert, (a weekly update on Real Estate Finance and Securitization), September 17, 2001 contended that WTC served as "collateral for five commercial MBS deals totaling $2.6 billion." The two world towers alone is estimated at $946 million. Now, there is a debate on whether the insurance companies would pay for the damage or not. This debate steams from attributes of President Bush’s initial declaration following the attack which he characterized as an "act of war" a statement which may disqualify insurance claims from damage. Although, the President had since amended his posture and even went as far as holding a discussion with the insurance people. However, the extent of remedial effect is yet to be known.
The stock exchange was not spared from the calamity that befell the United States of America and the world economy following the attack. On Monday September 18, one week after the attack, the US Wall Street opened its door for trading. The stock market took a beating as Dow Jones dropped to an all time low never seen in a decade. The Washington Post of September 18, 2001 contended that "Dow’s loss was well below the 22.6 percent drop during the 1987 stock market crash." At the same time, the airline stocks took the most beating as they dropped 40 percent to 50 percent. It is worthy to know that the market has attained some degree of normalcy, however, it would take awhile before it emerges completely from the rubbles of September 11 after shock.
Emotional Reaction and Psychological Impact The United States quest for retaliation would not ease the burden on the world financial market; rather, it would further escalate the stagnation since more money would be diverted to the war machine. Moreover, history has shown that the USA government policy towards an attack, either to its facilities, personnel or in the heartland always incurs the wrath of military retaliation.
Already, the United States Congress has appropriated $40 billion towards revamping the effect of the attack. But, the same Congress have greeted President Bush’s pursuit of retaliatory action by voicing caution and action devoid of emotional underpinning LA Times of September 18, 2001, contended that some lawmakers has asked both the President and their constituency to exercise restraint in that it would be unwise to kill innocent people indiscriminately in the name of revenge.
Salin Muwakkil wrote in the Chicago Tribune of September 24, 2001 that "the Bush administration's response to September 11's terrorist attack seems focused on the kind of military retaliation that will produce exactly the hatred of the U.S. that Islamic radicals have." However, it is worth knowing that Bush approved shipment of multimillion-dollar humanitarian aid in the sum of $320 million to Afghanistan refugees that sought refuge in Pakistan. This shipment was supposed to send a strong signal to the Islamic world that the American pursuit of Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida networks of terrorists have nothing to do with Islam.
The TIME magazine of September 14, 2001 reported that a "telephone survey of 1,082 adult Americans taken September 13 for TIME and CNN by Harris Interactive "… show(s) that …more than 80 percent of Americans favor military action… 85 percent favor strategic air strikes against isolated military targets … 81 percent support assassinations of leaders responsible for the terrorism (while) 55 percent favor ground inversion…"
Historically, an attack on the USA hinterland or institution always incurs retaliation. On Sunday December 7, 1941, Japanese kamikaze warplanes attacked the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. That attack resulted in the death of 2,400 service men and loss of 19 ships.
The Japanese provocative attack was enough to draw the USA into the Second World War. On August 6, 1945 at 8:15 AM, with the blessing of U.S. President Harry Truman, a US Airforce B-29 bomber known as Enola Gay embarked on a bombing run in an operation termed "Little Boy." The target was Hiroshima, a boisterous Japanese city and heavily populated. The bomber dropped the first atomic weapon ever used in modern day warfare. It was estimated that about 66,000 people died while 69,000 was injured (Atomic Energy for Military Purposes: The Official Report on the Development of the Atomic Bomb Under the Auspices of the United States Government, 1 by Henry De Wolf Smyth and Philip Morrison (undated))
Three days later, on August 9, 1945, another bomber nicknamed "Bockscar" dropped plutonium bomb termed "Fat Man" on Nagasaki, Japan. Nagasaki’s population at the time was between 422,000 to 383,000. It was estimated that 39,000 people died while 25,000 suffered injuries. The outcome of the two bombing runs, a result of an attack on the USA, resulted in the end of WW II as the Japanese surrendered.
The point is that any belligerent attempt by foreign forces to draw the United States into a war that it does not want to participate always backfires. Politically, President Bush has won the war. Prior to the September 11th attack, Bush had adopted a laissez-faire attitude to governance. He went on vacation while the USA economy skid on a downward slope that prompted the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four to five times in an attempt to prevent recession. Moreover, President Bush won a tax relief battle with the US Congress geared towards elevating the sagging economy; still none of these have so far helped the economy until the maniacs of the Middle East attacked.
The attack has afforded the Bush administration the emotional window to pump more money into the USA economy. So far, $40 billion has been appropriated and signed into law to be channeled towards the events surrounding the terrorist attack. Additional $15 billion has been approved by the US Congress as a rescue or bail out for the USA airlines that were adversely affected by the hijacker's use of airplane in their nefarious attack on WTC, Pentagon and United flight 93 that was en route from Newark, New Jersey to San Francisco, California which was speculated to be heading to Camp David before it crashed near Pittsburgh. The quick thinking and coordinated action by the White House, National Security Council, the Department of Treasury, FEMA, FAA, Justice Department, the State Department, and the Department of Defense that closed the USA airspace to traffic and direct all traffics on the air to Canada was argued to have saved the nation from further attack (Washington Post, September 12, 2001). Another $75 billion rescue request by Bush is pending before the U.S. Congress.
Apart from the above mentioned, more money would be allocated in the nearest future, which would go to the war effort. The weapons that would be fired or used during the war against the terrorism and those that harbor them have to be replaced. The replacement would cost billions of dollars coupled with the cost of treatment to injured soldiers. And if George Bush wins, he would be guaranteed a second term, and perhaps the Republican Party control of both houses of the Congress.
There is no question in our mind that America would prevail against the faceless monsters as President Bush declared: "we will win the war and there will be costs." However, the psychological scar from the September 11th terrorist hijack of passenger airplane with passengers on board and eventual crashing of the airplane on WTC and Pentagon would take a long time to overcome both emotionally and financially. Moments after the attack, the American people have become prisoners without boundaries. Federal buildings have been barricaded, travelling by air means giving up some elements of freedom by subjecting oneself to intensive scrutiny.
The Americans have become prisoners in their own country. The other day, I took a long walk at the Chicago financial district, especially around Jackson Street and Dearborn Street, an area where federal structures were located. The buildings were fortified, large solid blocks surrounded them, and there were four to six police automobiles and lot more uniform Police officers. Even the Post Office was fortified. Then, I walked down to the Daley Center where the city of Chicago offices was located. Both Police Officers and vehicles surrounded the building. There were Police Officers at every nook and corner of the city. The same can be said about Pennsylvania Avenue, Constitution Avenue and all the streets where federal buildings were located in Washington DC.
This fortification and presence of law enforcement officers at every nook and corner of the cities reminded this writer of how Ankara the capital of Turkey used to be in the 1980s during the time of its political upheaval. The Bush Government has recommended that Federal Marshals be stationed in every airline that flies within the USA territory. It has also been recommended that the federal government would take over airport securities. Currently, the US army reserves have been stationed at all the airports. All these amount to hiring of thousands of personnel at a time when there is a budget constraint and failing economy.
The dense presence of security personnel at the USA airports is reminiscent of the old Soviet Union. However, it is important that a distinction be made between the current police state in America and that of the old Soviet Union. In the later, it law enforcement officials were used for political tools. They were used as instrument of intimidation and repression whereas in the former, they were used to deter terrorist attacks. The American people have come to accept that after all, it would be for temporary purposes unlike in the old Soviet Union.
Psychologically, the terrorists seem to have an edge on the war of evil versus the good. In America today, people are scared to go to the movies, sports events, and various artists out of fear of possible terrorist attack have canceled concerts. The general moods are some how somber. According to The Courier News of October 2, 2001, pC2 "both of the major readings of consumer sentiment - done by the Conference Board in New York and the University of Michigan - show that confidence has been jolted badly by the Sept. 11 attack." It argued that the "Conference Board reading fell by 14.4 percent in September, taking the largest one-month tumble since October 1990…(whereas) the University of Michigan index of consumer’s expectations about the future fell to 73.5, a plunge of 13.7 percent from August reading. The only two previous times that this index has fallen by similar amounts was the 1990 period leading to the Gulf War and the 1973 Arab oil embargo."
A new psychological fear is brewing and that has to do with chemical and bioterrorism. It has been reported in various news outlets that the terrorists that attacked on September 11 had inquired about acquisition of crop dusters. This tiny airplane was supposed to be used in chemical attack. The news report precipitated consumer rush to purchase gas masks. At this writing, gas masks has become a rear commodity and in high demand. It is also learned that seven hours following the attack on WTC that the federal government shipped anti biological drugs to New York City in the event that they might be needed.
To allay consumer psychological apprehension, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Tommy Thompson testified before the U.S. Congress that although the chance of chemical attack in the heartland of America is possible, that the agency is prepared to contain it. He listed the agency's plan of action one of which was to "hold an annual training conference to teach local emergency workers how to identify and treat biowarfare agents." (Daily Herald, October 4, 2001, p12).
Furthermore, at the present time, billions have been lost due to psychological fear. For instance, the lack of public confidence towards flying by air has cost Delta Airline $1 billion according to the chairman of the company. Some experts have projected that it would take six months to one year before the economy would fully recover. This estimate does not include the cost that would be incurred while the USA pursues retaliatory attack on Afghanistan, which started on October 7th 2001.
Conclusion Terrorism is a cancer, like every other harmful decease must be rooted out and the time has come for that to happen. The goal of this article was to explore the initial financial impact of the September 11th terrorist attack on New York and Washington DC and also the USA reaction when its territory is attacked by foreign invaders. What should the USA and the world do to prevent future attacks on innocent civilians and its effect on global financial structure?
In one of his airwaves speeches, President Bush declared that the "terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundations of America. These acts shatter steel, but they cannot dent the steel of American resolve." The US should turn this human catastrophe into virtue. Too much collateral lives have been lost in this senseless and barbaric aggression. The proposed USA marshal plan where $40 billion has been designated to address the affect of the terrorist attack is a starting point. The disbursement of the $15 billion approved for the airlines may enable them to put back to work those who lost their jobs due to the slack of business. However, that would not bring back the lives of those who perished in the carnage nor would it erase the psychological effect of the attack.
The atmosphere in the USA at this moment was revenge and there is no question in our mind that the USA would prevail, doubters should read the section of this article concerning Japanese attack on Peal Harbor and the after effect. However, most of the Middle East leaders and some experts have opined that terrorism would not abate as long as the problem of Israel and Palestine exists. This bottleneck – land, war and religion of the middle east has to be solved and the September 11th incident have given the American leaders an upper hand to take the initiative.
All the leaders of the world, both civilized and supporters of terrorism have agreed that the use of terrorism to justify an end has outlived its usefulness. So why not call upon the warring parties to accept all the negotiated agreements on the book. The Israelites must withdraw from Palestinian lands and the Palestinians must recognize the existence of the state of Israel. These were part of the original Oslo Agreement that addressed the Jewish – Palestinian problem.
The world terrorists have this tendency of using Islam to justify their heinous acts. When the Israel – Palestine issue is resolved, then the weapon which radical Islamic fanatics have used to justify their acts, such as the bombing of WTC in 1993, the hijack and obliteration of WTC and the attack on Pentagon both on September 11, 2001 would be history.
Meanwhile, the road to world financial recovery seems murky. The longer the loggerheads stick to their demand, the more the financial market is affected. An example is the stock market where investors are scared to invest their money in order to bolster the sagging economic situation. The psychological impact would continue. Some copycats may even exploit the situation by joining in causing confusion thereby throwing the world into turmoil. To help the market, the chairman of federal Reserve have cut interest rates for the eight time since President Bush came into office. It is believed that by cutting interest rates, inflation and full-blown recession would be contained.
The fallout from the September 11th terrorist attack in the heartland of America goes to show the convoluted intertwine of the modern day economy and industries where like dominos effect, paralysis to one sector automatically affect related components. The total cost of operation "Enduring Freedom" formerly called "Operation Infinite Justice" is not known yet.
So far, approximately $100 billion in rescue fund to the economy has been approved. Compared to Desert Storm with an estimated price tag of $61 billion. The Desert Storm figure constitutes the cost of construction, deployment and operation in the Gulf. Desert Storm was more internationalist compared to the current Enduring Freedom. Of the approximate cost of $61 billion, "$54 billion was offset by contributions from other members in the coalition. Two-thirds of the $54 billion was provided by the Gulf States ($36 billion) with the remaining one-third mostly provided by Japan and Germany ($16 billion)."(From Conduct of the Persian War, The Final Reports to the US Congress by the US Department of Defense, April 1992, Appendix P.) The remaining came from the United States, and of course, the cost of hardware, which was predominantly from the United States, was not factored into the overall cost. So far, the cost of operation Enduring Freedom has been borne by the United States and it is still mounting.
Finally, this is a different kind of war and President Bush has a daunting job to do. His first task is to convince the American people that they are safe. Second is to instill public confidence so that people would feel comfortable from their trepidation by flying again and spending their money to boast the economy. Third, he has to assure the American people that the war, which he is about to undertake, would be short with favorable result. But, after all said and done, this crisis would either make or break George Bush’s presidency especially given the circumstances surrounding his election into office.
October 2001
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