Fallacy of political incumbency
By
The true story is that nobody, no matter how hard he tried, has ever secured and served a second term as President or Governor in Nigeria. The first Prime Minister of Nigeria, Alhaji Tafawa Balewa did not serve a second term in office. The election that was to usher his second term ended in a controversy. This was in spite of the fact that the then Federal Government had 'successfully' destabilised the official opposition and sentenced the opposition leader Chief Obafemi Awolowo and his top aides to lengthy terms of imprisonment.
The Tafawa Balewa-government had thought that by destroying all opposing parties and planting its stooges in the then Regional Governments, its re-election would be smooth. But the result of that scheme is recounted graphically in our history books. The schemers did not only lose their political positions, but most of them lost their lives. They did not get a second term in office.
The first Executive President of Nigeria, Alhaii Shehu Shagari did not also serve a second term in office. The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) did everything in its powers to rig the 1983 elections. The Shehu Shagari administration raised and sustained conflicts in non-NPN states. They abused the police force, the judiciary and even the electoral body.
The National Party of Nigeria announced a landslide victory for itself yet its members did not serve a second term. Three brief months after that shameful 1983 elections, they were swept aside by the strong and unbending arms of history. The perpetrators were punished with lengthy years of imprisonment. Alhali Abubakar Rimi, Chief Jim Nwobodo, Chief Melford Okilo etc will never forget their prison experiences.
Political events have shown that the harder the second term-seekers come, the harder they fall.
The politicians of the First Republic were bent on truncating the young Nigerian state but the hand of fate slaughtered them in their numbers. The Prime Minister was killed. So were Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, Chief S.L. Akintola and Chief Okotie - Eboh. The casualty list was lengthy.
The gladiators of the Second Republic were not spared. They were sent to prison terms that ranged between 20 - 80 years. The trauma of lengthy imprisonment sent some of the governors to their graves. They were Late Prof. Ambrose Ali of Old Bendel State; Late Aper Aku of Benue State; Late Olabisi Onabanjo of Ogun State and Late Alhali Bakin Zuwo of Kano State.
History is about to repeat itself and our politicians are at it again. To avoid a repeat of this unpleasant history, the Committee of Patriots advised President Olusegun Obasanjo and the thirty-six State Governors not to seek a second term and recommended a single five-year term.
The Patriots suggested that the Presidency should rotate among the six geo-political zones of the country. The Nigerian Bar Association also lent its voice to the adoption of a single term of five years and the National Assembly began discussions along this line. But some Nigerians have vehemently denounced these recommendations as unconstitutional.
Nigerian politicians appear to prefer the collapse of the country than relinquishing power. They talk as if when the country collapses it would not hurt. These blood-sucking politicians should be reminded that never in our political history have we felt so much tension; seen so much violence and witnessed so much bloodshed in times of peace.
The cold-blooded murder of Chief Bola Ige and the killing of Tobias Igwe, the Onisha branch chairman of NBA and his wife exemplify the state of anarchy. Newspapers are awash with stories and pictures of political violence and killings yet politicians insist on remaining in office at all cost. Nigerian political history has shown that these political actors will be brushed aside and Nigeria will continue to exist.
Nigeria will survive all the threats against its existence but it will do so without these persons who are bent on destroying the country.
The power of incumbency has not been effective in Nigerian politics. In 1983 more than 50% of the state governors lost re-election. Out of the 19 governors that were elected in 1979, only eight got re-elected.
Among the eleven governors that did not return in 1983, Alhali Balarebe Musa was impeached and Alhali Shehu Kangiwa died in office. The remaining nine governors were defeated in office. President Shehu Shagari's party (the NPN) recorded the only governor who lost the gubernatorial primaries. He was Dr. Clement Isong of Cross-River State.
Where was the power of incumbency when 58% of governors failed reelection? Did governors Jim Nwobodo; Ambrose Ali; Bola Ige; Abubakar Rimi etc not control radio stations and state apparatus? Yet the system threw up its contradictions that drowned these state governors.
Those were even the days of party discipline and party supremacy. Yet governors of the ruling party lost re-election. Those were the days when senators of the ruling party supported and protected the President. Those were the days when state legislators supported their party policies and regulations. Yet the governors that were re-elected did not serve a second term. The system swallowed them up.
Today, the political landscape is congested. It is a jungle. These are periods when PDP dominated National Assembly is in continuous conflict with the President. We are in an era where PDP governors chase PDP Local Government Chairmen out of office. These are periods characterized by individualism and political arbitrariness.
Will God reward these bold and unrepentant political sinners with the novelty of a second term? Your guess is as good as mine.
April 2003