The gospel according to Francis Arthur Nzeribe 

By 

Senator Arthur Nzeribe

Four distinct interest blocs are clearly discernible at the starting line for the anticipated presidential election in year 2003. There are President Olusegun Obasanjo's re-election bloc - OBJ, former President Babangida election bloc - IBB, and the yet to be identified, silent unknown soldiers representing the agitating blocs of the South-South and the Southeast crying marginalisation. The agitating and crying blocs do not deserve to command much space or comment. The nation awaits their arrivals without much enthusiasm believing that the hollow agitations and crying will fizzle out and come to naught. 

I belong to this school of biased thought. Taking into account a mix grill of circumstances, events, resources etc. I predict that the President of Nigeria, come 2003, will not emerge from the South- South, or the Southeast. I defer my reasons. On the other hand, I make bold to predict that come 2003, we will be saluting either a re-elected third timer OBJ or a newly elected second timer IBB. That is the main peg of this thesis. That is the bottom line. But since neither hopefuls will telegraph their clear intentions or make open declarations of intent, I will undertake the risky speculative business of reading their lips.

First, OBJ: An old fox, who has seen it all before. His body language is very deceptive, pretends not to know what he is doing. Stubborn, uncompromising and cherishes challenges. Certainly bold, believes he is God sent and I can adduce superior arguments to support his otherwise strong and justified believe. Possesses an effective, direct and amiable style that is unique to him. He does not have to prove anything to anyone by virtue of his highly impressive CV. I admit being friendly with him of recent but cannot claim to know him close enough.

Second, IBB: Well, what can I say? The reader knows my position with IBB. A friend in the true sense of it. We share and enjoy mutual respect and a telepathic relationship. I trust him implicitly. We argue and debate a lot on issues telling each other the blunt truth from our independent viewpoints. A very, very charming man, capable, full of political sagacity.

Both men do not require much promotion, as the nation knows who they are, what they have done and what they can do. Their CVs are equally impressive and daunting.

Perhaps by a combination of constitutional restraints and tactical logic, OBJ has not formally declared his intention to seek re-election. But the ambition for a second term is there for everybody to see. You can feel it, smell it or even touch it. These days, the refrain among his aides and supporters is that there will be no vacancy in Aso Rock come 2003". Such statements are quite weighty but it seems members of the OBJ camp do not mind so far as it succeeds in putting fear in the minds of potential opponents. As a matter of fact, some of his supporters have made utterances that are capable of providing an easy tool for the President's opponents to go to town with. The other day, a top official of the President's party was quoted as saying that Chief Obasanjo will be the SOLE candidate of his party come 2003. Such assertions go to underscore how seriously the OBJ camp is taking the matter.

Then there is the bloc that seeks to throw up IBB. There is, a similarity between the two blocs essentially in approach. IBB has, for obvious reasons, not formally declared his ambition. This is natural and understandable. Yet, just like OBJ's, the IBB Presidential Project is there for anybody to see, feel, and indeed touch. Those who dismiss it are in a grand self- deception.

Unlike the OBJ bloc, however, there are yet no die-hards from the IBB camp. I read that one self-appointed campaigner was arrested and questioned by state security agents. But on whose prompting? How does his utterances constitute a crime? Well, it is all part of it. Given the immediate past and present circumstances, it would be completely tactless for IBB to personally give an inkling about his desire to return to power. Besides, it is hardly a tradition for Nigerian presidential aspirants, especially the ones that believe they have good chances, to make an early start openly. Only naive politicians would expect IBB to declare his intentions with two years to the presidential race. The late Chief Moshood Abiola, with all his attributes, declared his interest in the presidency only three months to the 1993 elections. Ditto for Chief Obasanjo who made his declaration five months to the 1999 elections. Between the two blocs however, the devotion to IBB is more solid with long standing followers. In order words, members of that bloc are more committed to the project than their counterparts in the Obasanjo camp. In the latter camp, I see the interest to back the president only limited to the desire of most of the members to retain their present jobs. It is perhaps necessary to warn Mr. President never to take anyone who swears to commit suicide if he fails to get re-elected seriously.

But I can state with certainty that as soon as members of the IBB camp get the faintest green light, that is, see a clearer coast, they will storm the political terrain with a ferocity that may catch their opponents napping. Of course, the major constituents of this bloc, from the North are known for their tacitum nature especially in matters like this. For now the Maradona is playing his game, which he is good at and can better anyone else at. On the whole however, Obasanjo and Babangida are the main issues at the moment as far as the 2003 presidential race is concerned. Let no one be deceived, they both nurse the ambition and they both have the resources to match this ambition. Despite the reticent approach put up by both so far, the two are in an equal stead to articulate and prosecute their ambition. They do not need to publicly telegraph their intentions for now.

Which brings me to the third bloc: The Southeast or Igbo bloc. I must state in clear terms right from the onset that the desire - which is indeed gradually metamorphosing into a mass agitation - by the Igbo to produce the president in 2003 is a legitimate one. As an Igbo, and therefore quite naturally, I endorse it completely. After all, there is an Igbo adage, which says which child will say - that his or her mother's soup is not delicious. And also that' "Onye Kwe, Chiya Ekwe. (If you consent, so will your gods). The Igbos have consented. Will their gods consent? I Doubt It. The odds against them are too mountainous for now, including the uncertainty of who wears the crown.

However, my constraint, at least as far as this article is concerned, is that while one is able to identify the figures around which the first two blocs are predicated, the Igbo quest for the Presidency has so far remained rather amorphous and unstreamlined. The questions I ask are: Who is the Igbo candidate? Where is he? I am aware that some would also counter that it is too early or unstrategic for one to be identified now but as is well known, every political agitation must have an arrowhead to be result oriented. Unlike the other two, the Igbo quest for the presidency is being prosecuted in a vacuum. Beyond mere declarations, I can't see any evidences to prove that the Igbo are quite out to do battle. Will the five Southeast Governors of PDP pull their resources together behind the most populist of them Orji Uzor Kalu for the contest on behalf of the Igbo that will give them a chance?

This is, however, the problem of the elite because as has been seen of recent, the masses of the people of the Igbo race have demonstrated a voracious appetite to be led out of their political slumber. The Igbo 'Enweghi Eze' mentality seems to give way to that of "we are ready to die for and with you". This explains the Kalu phenomenon and that is why I believe that he is gaining ground and is a factor. Good, Igbo have had presidential aspirants and even candidates in the Ekwuemes, the Iwuanyawus, the Nzeribes, the Nwobodos etc., etc., but - perhaps due to circumstances then - none of them became a phenomenon or was seen by their people as rallying points for rapid transformations of the region, psychologically and materially. That was in the past.

But time has changed. The political elite which thought before that the masses are not conscious had better had a rethink. With the promise that things will become better once the military are chased away not being fulfilled, the people naturally have no stomach for the conventional approach to national politics. This is a point which members of the other two blocs - the IBB and OBJ - must note. When people like Kalu declare that the Igbo will no longer "pour their votes into the ocean," I guess it is a statement any power seeker in the forthcoming dispensation will ignore only at his or her peril. I admonish OBJ and IBB to please not ignore Kalu's populist utterances. It is not just the rantings of youth. There is substance to it.

But then, how serious or prepared is the Igbo bloc in this game? For example, under what platform will an Igbo candidate contest? The Southeast Governors, who made an open declaration recently in support of the project, are all of the People Democratic Party (PDP). Given that for obvious reasons, the Igbo presidential project will receive stiff opposition from the PDP hierarchy, what machinery are there in place to provide an alternative platform? Theoretically, the PDP is there for the incumbent president to manipulate. In fact, it is said that OBJ is sure to be a Presidential candidate in 2003 with or without PDP. The Alliance for Democracy (AD), populated mostly by people of his own tribe, is said to be ready to offer him a ticket anytime. It doesn't matter if he would eventually lose under AD but he would at least be a candidate. Ditto for the IBB camp, who is spoilt for choice between the PDP or the All Peoples Party (APP).

My worry for the seemingly open-ended nature of the Southeast presidential quest is, in fact, heightened by the fact that it appears to be the least potentially feasible of all the four blocs. In spite of the fierce oppositions in the PDP one major reason why the Southeast project looks potentially not viable is that it will not be a major beneficiary of a possible suspension' of the IBB presidential project.

The Igbo quest is interlaced with passion, emotion and vehemence but without substance or strategy. The Southeast project will look good if only a considerable part of the North would want the Southeast to enjoy the real benefits of power shift come 2003. That does not seem to be the case for now. It will not just happen. The Igbo has to work and make it happen.

The disaffection of the North with Obasanjo's administration is real. So, if for any reasons and at any point the IBB project is considered out rightly unviable, the North will most likely go for the South South. Some key politicians from the North are already said to be opposed to the idea of Northern candidate in 2003. This could be for tactical reasons, in order to hatch a grand master plan for 2007. It could also be a decoy to misguide the South, trigger a southern contest which would be stalemated and with no one winning. Then the North will claim the crown as usual `'reluctantly". Of course, there are some die-hards in the North who believe that the mistake,, of conceding power to the South should be rectified immediately. This is the group that make up the camp of IBB whom they believe is the only Northerner that can wrench power from OBJ.

If for obvious reason the Southeast quest is abandoned and considered non viable, the tilt of Igbo votes would be towards the North. Of course in politics, they say, anything can happen. There could be shifts in the political frontiers. But the truth is that the OBJ camp cannot today boast of being in a consummate romance with the entire South. Clearly, what to do to get back to their hearts is not the type of things some of the Igbo members of this camp, are reported to say. They merely succeed in alienating their master from the people of the area. OBJ, in order to succeed must expand his cells in the Southeast to include "others", not just his town criers but across the political spectrum. Yet, the Southwest, where President Obasanjo comes from is certainly not done with Aso Rock. As the South East agitation hots up, the Southwest will see the former as the greatest threat to their own quest for a .`well deserved', second term. I have heard some Igbo politicians argue that it would be better for Igbo to maintain a low profile for now so as not to incur the wrath of the Southwest for challenging Obasanjo's second term. I disagree. The fight is better in the open and the earlier the better. Let the stronger win.

Enter the South south. For reasons that are too well known to be mentioned here, the South south zone is only available for the OBJ and IBB camps to predate. It will be strange if the Southeast bloc gets any sympathy from the region. In any case, its people are also forming an interest bloc for the Presidency. But to be candid and for primordial reasons, this quest would suffer more set backs than that of any other three. Although the zone will as usual play a pivotal role, this will be determined by the balance of forces between and among the first three blocs. I think the Igbo had their best chance in 1999 with Ekwueme in the PDP, Iwuanyawu and Onu in the APP. They lost on both sides. I predict that year 2003 is not the Igbo time. It is for OBJ or IBB. That is the naked bitter truth.

It is significant to note that the political leaders of both blocs are the principal promoters of OBJ and IBB. I do not see the personnel from both zones to effectively compete. If there is any, then the time to start the journey is now. No other would-be candidates in the country have the advantage of OBJ and IBB in the sense that they have structures on the ground with real resources, not just what is perceived. Both men are trying to out fox each other. Both are experts at playing political hide and seek. The contest is developing gradually and interesting to follow. The presidency may turn out to be a one horse race if OBJ decides to play a Mandela - that is to say, not to seek re-nomination but to sponsor IBB. Pundits will say, in order to return the compliments IBB paid in 1999. Or, on the other hand, IBB may decide to renew his support for OBJ as in 1999 to ensure his re-election in exchange of support for year 2007. Will they make a deal or fight for it? What is it to be? What is the choice? Six of one or half a dozen of the other? 

Do Not Ask Me.

Senator Nzeribe Nzeribe is a senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria