How Many Nigerians Are There Today? 58.4 Million, I Dare Say!
by
Burtonsville, MD, USA
INTRODUCTION
In an earlier 'Saturday Essays' of October 3, 1998, which I reproduce
below, I wrote the following:
QUOTE
"No nation can progress properly without accurate data about not only
its population, but its population density. Population density in
particular is important in terms of provision of services, agriculture
and food availability and potentials for voluntary migration/planned
resettlements (?) due to efforts to ease congestion and improve the
quality of life. It will serve us well if our nation makes a greater
effort to get accurate information and put all of these issues into
consideration during national planning. "
UNQUOTE
The present controversy over presidential election figures has provided me
another incentive to ask the pertinent: how many Nigerians are there
really?
I have come to a hand-wavingly 'accurate' figure: 58,405,755. That is,
we are really about half of what we are cracked up to be!
How did I arrive at this figure? Please follow me closely.
THE CALCULATIONS
So far there have been three official censuses in Nigeria:
Table 1: Official Census Figures and Some Estimates
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Official Effective
Census Population
Year Figure %Growth Rate Comment
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1953 31.6 5.8 figure prob. undercount; g.rate too
high
1963 55.5 1.68 figure prob. overcount; g.rate too low
1991 88.5 3.2 figure in doubt; g.rate OK
1998(est;1) 110.53 1.54 figure in doubt; g.rate too low
2050(est;2) 244.00 alarmingly high figure!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate 1 is given in the CIA Factbook, with a website
{http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/country.html}. The estimate
of 244 million is given in the following news report of March 23, 1999:
--
QUOTE
World Population Seen At 9 Bln By 2050
Tuesday, March 23, 1999
By Anthony Goodman
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The world's population, expected to reach six
billion in October, will be nearly nine billion by the year 2050,
according to the latest U.N. estimate Monday.
``Fifty years from now, the U.N. Population Division projects a much
larger world population than exists today. We are anticipating a world
close to nine billion inhabitants,'' the division's director, Joseph
Chamie, told the U.N. Commission on Population and Development.
But he said a U.N. projection for the year 2000 calculated 40 years ago
was remarkably accurate in predicting a figure of slightly more than six
billion, even though in the aftermath of World War Two, when the world
population was slightly above two billion, few believed it would nearly
triple by the end of the century.
Chamie said the population increase of some three billion by the year 2050
was expected to take place in less developed regions.
He said India alone would grow by 50 percent in the next five decades,
from one billion to 1.53 billion, and would be the largest country in the
world.
Nigeria and Pakistan would both grow even more rapidly, by roughly 120
percent -- from 156 million to 345 million for Pakistan and from 112
million to 244 million for Nigeria.
China now has the world's biggest population. Chamie gave no figure but it
is generally estimated at some 1.2 billion.
But he said China's fertility rate, which in 1950 was among the world's
highest with approximately 6.2 children per couple, was now well below
replacement level, at 1.8 children per couple.
Chamie gave no reason for this but Beijing enforces a strict ``one child
per family'' birth control policy.
He said that between now and 2050, the populations of 30 countries were
projected to decline. They include Germany, from 82 million to 73 million;
Japan, from 126 million to 105 million; and Russia, from 147 million to
121 million.
UNQUOTE
--
That total estimate for Nigeria is rather alarming! However, it means an
unrealistically 1.54% growth rate over about 50 years from 112 million to
244 million: the 112 million is either too low or the 244 million is too
high!
Now the 1953 census figure of 31.6 million is reported to be about a 10%
undercount. If we therefore assume a 1953 population of 35 million, and
project an increasing growth rate as each decade progresses, we get the
following table of estimates:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2: Estimates of Nigerian Population Figures Based on 1953 Figures
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Estimates Growth Rate Comments
1953 35 2.25 figure assumes 10%
undercount
1963 43.7 2.50 - growth rates indicate
improving
1973 55.9 2.75 health conditions
1991 91.1 3.0 up until 3.0
1998 112.0 2.75 g.rate reduction due to family
plan.
2050 459
alarmingly high figure!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Again, we recover a population of about 112 million in 1998, but with an
estimate of 459 million Nigerians in the year 2050!
We can only accurately obtain our population by conducting a credible
census. In the time being, is there a way to better estimate how many we
are?
I believe that by looking at the countries surrounding Nigeria - Benin,
Togo and Ghana to the west, Cameroon to the east and Niger and Chad to the
north - and assuming that there POPULATION DENSITIES are correct, we can
begin to CALCULATE an ESTIMATE for Nigeria.
The basic information is presented in the following table, and is
obtained from the CIA Factbook for each country:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 3: Comparative Population information for Nigeria and Neighboring
Countries
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nigeria Benin Togo Ghana
Cameroon Niger Chad
<--- west of Nigeria ----> <East of Nig> <-north of
Nig->
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Area
sqkm
----
totl 923,770 112,620 56,790 238,540 475,440 1,267,000 1,284,000
land 910,770 110,620 54,390 230,020 469,440 1,266,700 1,259,200
watr 13,000 2,000 2,400 8,520
6,000 300 24,800
w/t 1.41% 1.78% 4.23% 3.56%
1.26% 0.02% 1.93%
Population
----------
110,532,242 6,100,799 4,905,827 18,497,206 15,029,433 9,671,848 7,359,512
Population density
(based on land area)
------------------
/sqkm 121.36 55.15 90.20 80.42
32.02 7.64 5.84
Age structure:
-------------
0-14 45% 48% 48%
43% 46% 48% 44%
15-64 52% 50% 49%
54% 51% 50% 53%
>65 3% 2%
3% 3% 3%
2% 3%
Military Issues
--------------
Age 18 18
- 18 18
18 20
Avail. 25.23mill 1.31 1.06 4.39
3.29 2.05 1.65
1.38
Fit 14.46mill 0.67 0.55 2.43
1.66 1.11 0.852
0.70
Ann. 1.15mill 0.065
0.18 0.16 .099 0.68
Reach 0.065
Population growth rate
---------------------
2.96% 3.31% 3.52%
2.13% 2.81% 2.96% 2.66%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note on military issues: number of personnel available, fit for military
service and reaching military age annually are all in millions. For each
country, all numbers are for males, except for Benin, which also supplies
female figures (second number.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now Benin, Togo and Ghana are all below the Niger to the west of Nigeria,
Cameroon below the Benue to the east of Nigeria and Chad and Niger are far
to the north of the Niger and Benue. We will assume that these
neighboring countries' population densities are AKIN to the actual
population densities of various STATES within Nigeria (being close to
them.) In fact, we DOUBLE/or TRIPLE their population densities
accordingly to obtain the estimates for the akin states.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 4: Calculating Population Using States Akin to Neighboring
Countries
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Countries <-Pop. Dens-> Akin States Total Area
Popul'n
Avg Used*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benin, Togo, Ghana 75 110 SW, {Edo, Delta} 266,166 29,278,260
{Kwara,Kogi,Benue}
78941+38646+148579
Cameroon 32 110 SE,
{Rivers, 125,359 13,789,490
Bayelsa}, {Ak-Ibom
Cross-River}, Taraba
29908+18090+28361
+49000
Niger, Chad 7 20 NE,
NW 430,743 8,614,860
271998-49000, 207745
Other Mid-States 25 65 Niger, Plateau
103,433 6,723,145
Nassarawa, FCT
74240+29193
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
925,701 58,405,755
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Population
Density
<----- 63 -------->
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Note: 110 is double of average of 75 and 32. 20 is TRIPLE of 7. 65 is
average of 110 and 20.
Thus we get a population estimate of 58.4 million, with an average
population density of 63 persons per square kilometer.
Hopefully, in the next civilian administration, getting our accurate
census is a task that must be done.
Best wishes all.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
REPEAT OF PREVIOUS SATURDAY ESSAYS
__________________________________________________________________________
SATURDAY ESSAYS: Where Nigerians Live, and How they Are Packed
by
Mobolaji E. Aluko
Burtonsville, MD
October 3, 1998
_____________________________________________________________________
Where do Nigerians live, and what is their population densities AND their
distribution nation-wide?
Below, in two tables, I have tried to inspect some data based on the 1991
census count for 30 states + Abuja, and reliable area data for the
nineteen pre-1991 states. New states and former states have also been
taken into account in some aggregate fashion.
----------------------------------------------------------
Table 1: State-by-State Analysis of Population Densities
----------------------------------------------------------
State Area
1991 1991
(sq. km) census
Rank pd Rank
SOUTH EAST
Imo } 10,675 2,485,499
[17] 448 [2]
Abia } 2,297,978 [21]
Anambra } 19,233 2,767,903 [14] 308 [3]
Enugu } 3,161,295 [11]
Ebonyi }
--------------------------------------------------------
Total S-E 29,908 10,712,675 358
SOUTH-WEST
Lagos 3,576 5,685,781
[1] 1,590 [1]
Ogun 17,409 2,338,570 [20] 134 [9]
Oyo } 36,818 3,488,789 [9] 155 [7]
Osun } 2,203,016 [22]
Ondo } 21,138 3,884,485 [7] 184 [6]
Ekiti }
-------------------------------------------------------
Total S-W 78,941 17,600,641 223
SOUTH-SOUTH
Delta } 38,646 2,570,181 [16] 122
[10]
Edo } 2,159,848 [23]
CrsRiver } 28,361 1,865,604 [27] 149 [8]
AkwaIbom } 2,359,736 [19]
Rivers } 18,090 3,983,857 [5] 220 [4]
Bayelsa }
------------------------------------------------------
Total S-S 85,097 12,939,226 152
NORTH WEST
Kano } 43,069 5,362,040
[2] 190 [5]
Jigawa } 2,829,929 [12]
Kaduna } 70,206 3,969,252 [6] 112 [12]
Katsina } 3,878,344 [8]
Sokoto } 94,470 4,392,391 [3] 68 [13]
Kebbi } 2,062,226 [26]
Zamfara }
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total N-W 207,745 22,494,182 108
NORTH CENTRAL
Niger 74,240 2,482,367
[18] 33 [18]
Kwara } 74,240 1,566,469 [28] 43 [15]
Benue } 74,339 2,780,398 [13]
Kogi } 2,099,046 [25]
Plateau } 29,193 3,283,784 [10] 112 [11]
Nassarawa }
--------------------------------------------------------
Total N-C 252,012 12,212,064 48
NORTH EAST
Borno }105,106 2,596,589
[15] 38 [16]
Yobe } 1,411,481 [30]
Adamawa } 99,245 2,124,049 [24] 36 [17]
Taraba } 1,480,590 [29]
Bauchi } 67,647 4,294,413 [4] 63 [14]
Gombe }
---------------------------------------------------------
Total N-E 271,998 11,907,122 44
FCT 378,671 [31]
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total 925,717
88,515,581 96
------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2: Comparative Regional Analysis of Population Densities
--------------------------------------------------------------
Region
Area 1991 Rank Population Rank
(sq. km)
census Density pd
South-East (SE) 29,908 10,712,675
[6] 358 [1]
SouthWest(SW) 78,941 17,600,641
[2] 223 [2]
South-South (SS) 85,097 12,939,226 [3] 152
[3]
NorthWest(NC) 207,745 22,494,182 [1]
108 [4]
North-Central (NC) 252,012 12,212,064 [4] 48 [5]
NorthEast (NE) 271,998 11,907,122 [5]
44 [6]
FCT
- 378,671
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 925,717
88,514,581 96
South 193,946 (21%) 41,252,542
(47%) 213
North 731,771 (79%) 47,262,039
(53%) 65
-------------------------------------------------------------------
[1995 World Almanac Figures]
Libya 1,759,540
5,057,000 3
Russia 17,075,352
149,609,000 9
USA 9,809,156
260,714,000 27
South Africa 1,225,821
43,931,000 36
Ghana 238,533
17,225,000 72
Nigeria 923,772
98,091,000 106
China 9,572,899
1,190,431,000 124
United Kingdom 244,110
58,135,000 238
India 3,166,428
919,903,000 290
Japan 377,752
125,107,000 331
Bangladesh 148,394
125,149,000 843
Africa 30,303,000
701,000,000 23
World 149,961,000
5,642,000,000 38
Some Observations
-----------------
It is interesting to note from the above data that while the whole of
Nigeria has an average population density of about 100 persons per square
kilometer, Lagos State has about 16 times that number, which gives an
indication of the congestion of that state and drift to the economic
center of Nigeria. Next to Lagos State is Imo State, which has about
four-and-a-half times the average Nigerian population density. The least
is Niger State, with about one-third the average population density of the
country.
On a regional basis, the South-Eastern region (Igboland), despite being
the region with the least population AND least land mass, has the highest
population density which is about three-and-an-half times that of the
National average. On the other hand, we have the North-West region
(Sokoto-Kebbi-Niger axis), which has the largest land mass and only about
a million persons more that the South-East region, but it has just over
one-tenth the population density of the South-East.
On a North-South basis, the North has about four times the land mass of
the South, and just 6% more in population. This results in the South
having just over twice the national average in populatin density, while
the North is about two-thirds of the national average.
Conclusion
----------
No nation can progress properly without accurate data about not only its
population, but its population density. Population density in particular
is important in terms of provision of services, agriculture and food
availability and potentials for voluntary migration/planned resettlements
(?) due to efforts to ease congestion and improve the quality of life.
It will serve us well if our nation makes a greater effort to get accurate
information and put all of these issues into consideration during national
planning.
Best wishes all.
_________________________________________________________________________