IBB AND THE CALCULUS OF 2003

IBB AND THE CALCULUS OF 2003

The latest on the much talked about re-emergence of the stepped aside General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, the famous Prince of the Niger, alias Maradona, into the partisan politics of Nigeria is that he has now personally renounced his widely insinuated testing of the waters, albeit via loyal proxies, preparatory to an eventual declaration of his presidential candidacy. By the words of his own mouth he has forthwith put paid to the speedily spreading rumors by declaring that he will NOT be contesting in the 2003 presidential elections under any political party as long as President Obasanjo, whom he calls his "senior", continues to be interested in the plumb job.

The newspapers that gleefully reported the renunciation of the much-taunted IBB presidential ambition did not however indicate under what circumstances he made the announcement. We are not informed by what deity he swore this time around, for the man had made more important vows to the nation in the past, which he openly attested to by invoking the solemn Ins-shalla, and still shamelessly defaulted on them. If credibility is the issue, it is already a matter of universal acknowledgment that IBB does not keep his promises and it is worse than playing the Russian roulette betting on him. Not once, not twice, did he promise the nation that he was going to hand over power to the people of Nigeria from whom the military stole political power a second time in 1983. Each time, the man defaulted and without any valid excuses. The tragic consequences of those breached covenants are the mounting problems that the nation faces today.

We all know that there is no smoke without fire. The speed and enthusiasm, with which the pro-Babaginda groups mushroomed and propagated within the last few months, more than anything else, are clearly suggestive of some developments that need deeper analyses. It is a fact that IBB himself has rationalized the development to be the result of his former henchmen feeling sidelined and idle in the current dispensation manned by the PDP. That theory may be fanciful but it remains very dubious as many of his men are in the present regime and are indeed the much-fabled moneybags polluting the system. The question of their been sidelined could not have arisen as the PDP is a collection of those who made their fortunes in the various military juntas especially that of himself and his successor, General Sani Abacha. Those of them who are currently not in open politics are simply choking under the weight of their ill-gotten wealth and are itching for space to exhibit them. It is incomprehensible that a party in which he has played such prominent roles does not have sufficient vacancies for his boys. Knowing IBB for what he is, it is most likely that he would always fend for them and sustain their blind loyalty under any circumstance. So they cannot therefore be heard to be complaining while the kingpin himself is all right.

Anyone who truly understands IBB, the Maradona of militics, ought to check his wrist watch a second time if he greets him "Good morning" for the time could indeed be as late as 3:30pm in the hot afternoon. General Buhari will certainly not forget the trick that IBB, as his Chief of Army Staff, played on him. When it was rumored that some boys in the army were becoming restless, IBB went on air to declare that his command was not going to tolerate, in the now famous words, "undue radicalism". It turned out that IBB was in fact the ringleader of the "radicals" when soon after they swept away Buhari and his ever-frowning deputy, Tunde Idiagbon. I am therefore, on the basis of the antecedents of man, unable to believe his sugarcoated denial of his palpable scheming to come back through corrupted ballot boxes. I was more comfortable when he left the matter hanging in suspense. But now that he has pointed to a ‘direction’, it is high time we started to search for his trademark hidden agenda for, IBB by nature does not speak without decoy. That really is the problem right now.

A careful reading of his reported denials reveals a lot of the old Maradonic moves.

First, the man has only conditioned his withdrawal upon Obasanjo’s decision to have a second term. Does IBB truly believe that Obasanjo has a second term? What was the famous secret ‘pact’ between him and Obasanjo suppose to contain? Let’s assume, in arguendo, that the true agreement is that Obasanjo should go for only a single term and Obasanjo accordingly decides to act the gentleman and honor the pact, is the road not then clear for him? If Obasanjo truly expects a second term, why then is he trying to elongate his single term from four to five or more through a dubious constitutional amendment? What was the quid pro quo to that pact, anyway? Again, theoretically, the President could become medically unfit to contest again in 2003 or something worse happens to him. What would such mean to IBB’s present renunciation? It is my thinking that on the basis of these possibilities, IBB could then say; "I told you that I would contest only if Obasanjo does not contest. Now that he is not contesting I am properly in the race!"

Here is a man who had an agreement with Abacha to relinquish power to him after his own illegitimate term as a military president in 1985 but kept the whole deal from the nation for nearly a decade. To effectuate the lie, he pretended to be organizing elections, which he routinely invalidated, knowing fully well that the next person under his secret agreement would be Sani Abacha. Matters came to a head when MKO Abiola who thought that he had secured the go-ahead of IBB himself went into the election and eventually won. Unknown to the world there existed a deal which Abacha and his military notaries were not prepared to forfeit under any circumstance, election or no election. The first indication of this shady deal was when, against all expectations and military tradition, he strangely left Abacha behind in the army when he was pressured to stepped aside, assigning to him the dubious role of superintending the Shonekan contraption--- until the time was ripe for him to assume full control. Abacha did exactly that. And that was how the June 12 election was violated just for the goggled Abacha to mount the saddle. It is just too bad that Abacha is no more alive to tell his own side of the bargain.

Again, IBB wanted the world to believe that he was not going to contest against Obasanjo simply because he (Obasanjo) is his senior. Senior in what? Ostensibly in the army. But was Buhari not his senior when he forced him out of office? When did IBB start to respect seniority and espirit de corps in the military? Did seniority mattered in the army while he was in charge? Was it not the barracks maxim then that "position or appointment pass rank"; when generals looked up to powerful majors for material sustenance? Here is a soldier whom General Bali said tricked the other conspirators after the coup that brought him to power into adopting the anomalous title of a military president now feigning respect for order and decency. Do leopards change their skins so easily?

It is therefore with a pinch of salt that one should take that aspect of his theory for not contesting against Obasanjo. My hunches are that the gap-toothed general has carefully surveyed the field and have seen the obstacles strewed along the path to a democratic entrance into Aso Rock and have started singing a new tune. His supporters who are desperately hungry for the return of the happy old days may be disappointed in the development. But the truth is that IBB is using his head while they are using their hearts. There is no doubt that the man has mountains of cash to buy his way into the office at any time. The real element that must be factored into the calculation by those rooting for him is the critical fact that not all that is possible is probable.

Of course, after several years in the saddle, legitimately or not, IBB should have made a lot of political capital, which ought to see him through many kilometers in the presidential race. But that would rather be the one in hell than in this terrestrial world for now, because he has also made too many enemies who are not about to let go immediately. In a way, it would be a poetic payday for the general as political battles are not the same with coup making. The political calculus on the ground does not favor such a resurgimento for him in contemporary Nigeria. Things may change later, and that is very likely. But right now, it’s a bridge too far for the Minna man. Smartly enough, he himself seems to know that very well but many of his mercenary supporters are only putting him up as a scarecrow against the obviously uninspiring Obasanjo system. As a matter of fact, IBB could decide to deny Obasanjo a second term by sponsoring another candidate but such an enterprise may boomerang on him as there is no guarantee that another president would be so prepared to turn a blind eye to the scandalous financial empire that he had improperly acquired especially if good governance continues to prove difficult due to declining fiscal cum budgetary capability. Certainly, what is good for Abacha ought to be good for his boss, IBB, all in the spirit of justice.

Finally, IBB must have to find a way around the Atiku factor in the emerging power equation. The vice-president may not have money in the same quantity that he has. But the VP seems to have more electoral roots than IBB in many critical areas of the north and, possibly, the southwest. It is very easy for IBB to play the old ethnic and religious game if the opponent is from elsewhere but being a fellow northerner, it may require a totally different arsenal. So if he is not contending in 2003, then 2007 may prove too far away as the smell of his mint Naira would have started to wane as new power bases spring up. One is most likely to bet that if he serves Obasanjo very well as a loyal VP, Atiku may also have creditably pocketed the votes of the Yoruba southwest, something IBB may never hope for in spite of the fluidity of Nigerian political affiliation. We must concede that this so far is a one-track analysis with so many susceptible, if not defective, assumptions. For example, the south/south is not going to let go the opportunity to have a shot at the presidency after Obasanjo. Let us not forget that the Ndigbo is also on their mark anxiously waiting to pick the presidential baton constructed on the Wazobia relay format. In that case, national expediency and political sagacity might lead to the concession of the presidency to either of these zones. Again, this scenario would, for all intents and purposes, effectively postpone the realization of IBB’s presidential dream.

I should think that even if IBB never becomes a genuine president of Nigeria, he should have the satisfaction that he had been able to pretend as one for that long, even through the barrel of the gun. It should not be forgotten that the military took more than three decades to build political and economic power bases for its members and their civilian ‘barracks boys’ allies. Consequently, it would take about that much for them to begin to fade away from the scene. And for that reason, IBB and his fellow coupists would continue to enjoy maximum economic and political attention in the highly materialistic Nigerian society. But the way to democratic progress for Nigeria is for all citizens to begin to have equal access to power on the basis of their individual character and personal charisma and not how much the individual has in his bank account or from which part of the country he hails. That is why the political terrain seems to have been inundated by retired generals and their civilian cohorts. Situations like that only devalue the concept of democracy and make it seem as if it is a game for nonentities who happen to be rich by any means possible.

In the meantime, those who had rolled out the drums for the imminent IBB electoral rehabilitation may be advised to quietly hang up their equipment until the ‘evil genius’ himself thinks the time has come. Because as at today, such a prospect is neither feasible nor opportune. Let us not forget that if Abacha did not die, we would all have just been marking the beginning of his programmed interminable rule. So if God has chosen to save us from hell we ought not to be seeking a clandestine alliance with the devil. Eight unbroken years of IBB is enough for Nigeria. Let those who have not exhausted their goodwill join the fray for the plumb job and the more the merrier and IBB like any other Nigerian should be free to perform his civic duties of voting for the candidates of his choosing. But for him to be the candidate right now I am afraid, the omen is not good at all.

HRP,

Harvard Law School,

Cambridge, MA 02138