|
If I were an Igbo man… (Part 1) By [Saudi Arabia]
There is no doubt whatsoever in mind that some political maneuverist are scheming to disprove the logical consequences of the bona fide political order. These individuals (or groups of individuals) I suspect, must have read or heard about PNP 101, an article where I spelt out the Politics of Nigeria People- as a basic course. In that fateful article, I formulated the political equations of the near future, in which it was proven that the root and consequences of an Obasanjo re-election for another 4 years; (i.e. OBJ + 4x), is equal to the eventual consignment of the Yorubas into 24 years of presidential isolation (i.e. Y – 24x). As a result, we can now hear desperate calls for a 5-year single non-renewable term for the elected C-in-C.
Recall that the North would have had to rule for 8 years, before the presidency is rotated down to the South, for a South-Easterner or South-Southerner, to reign for another 8 years (making 16 years). Naturally, albeit logically, the North would eagerly grab and win Aso Rock for another 8 years before the South-West is given a shot to produce an Octogenarian to lead us in 24 years time. This is assuming they continue to consign their fates to Afenifere for ever more. And be not fooled, dear readers, by the miraculous sway that the PDP holds in the South-West today. All na eye service. The South-Westerners are smart enough to know which way the political wind is blowing, and if that wind is laden with the aroma of amala, kpomo and gbegiri soup, then the better for them. I bet you AD or Afenifere, will quickly recover in 2006 just in time to re-take the ‘O’ states during a non-Yoruba presidency, starting 2007. Mark my words.
In any case, my other salient predictions in PNP 101 have come to pass. I refused to support Buhari, because (as much as I admired and trusted him to be able to deliver some dividends) I knew that he would be flogged at the polls. Indeed, he was. Furthermore, I asserted that he was politically untutored for the present scheme of things, and how naïve he was to expect that IBB would just back him up. So now that IBB has begun to show his intentions as an agenda that is not quite hidden, perhaps those readers who were aggrieved by my earlier predictions and conclusions would pay more attention this time; most especially my beloved Nna Brosses. But, biko, wait first... is it not strange too (like I foretold) that in the coming 2007 duel, no one is mentioning Buhari again? Every political analyst worth his salt (or pepper) has been focusing on the clash between IBB and Atiku and in some cases Marwa. Maybe it is because Buhari is preoccupied with his court battles. Well, for the sake of judicial involvement and rule of law, I agree that he should seek redress in those instances where for example, there is clear proof that he lost Kaduna, because one sergeant Audu stuffed ballot boxes with fake votes. Nevertheless, I was right. Oh yes, Buhari has been relegated to political insignificance for now; and has been registered in the mental hard disk of the average northerner as a one-time loser. From the depths of our political recycle bin, some people stand to benefit tremendously from this development. It is up to him to fashion out a way of ressurrecting and taking his rightful place amongst respectable leaders of Nigeria.
Anyway, my dear Igbo brothers and sisters, crying for political attention would not bring any genuine sympathy from the two other ethnic groups vis-à-vis the Hausa/Fulanis and the Yorubas. Hammering about your neglect, your turn to rule, bla bla bla, will achieve little more than a running mate for now. The North is more prepared, more determined (by way of powershift) to snatch the presidency in 2007 and believe me, whoever gets there would want to witness 8 annual Sallah/Christmas holidays before retiring to his farm, wherever it is.
If I were an Igbo man, I would genuinely start paying close attention to those calling for a five-year, non-renewable presidency. Obviously, they must largely be composed of people who hail from ethnicities that would benefit from a swift return to the sudden political utopia that they have tasted. But who says the next 5 years can’t be for an Igbo man? Then again, what plans have the Igbos got for taking over apart from expecting political sympathy? Agitating for your turn at presidency is not enough and in fact, is irrelevant right now. What is required is a grand political strategy on how to force the presidential pendulum to swing in three directions. Without such a strategy, my fear is that you would see more Alex Ekwuemes humiliated at party conventions!
It is pertinent to realize that each of the other two major ethnicities in Nigeria have their unique contemporary ways of getting and sustaining political power. The North shall continue to bank on its shrewd politicians, substantial north-wide population and the fact that the south as a whole, can never speak with one political voice in the near future. The southwest has already expended its ‘we are the best’ mentality as well as the June 12 sympathy. Now they have to scheme up new tactics for future polls, and I trust that they will. As for the Southeast, there is one sure way for them achieve long-lasting political success on the national stage and guess what? it has everything to do with regional economics and little to do with Abuja-politicking - with the exception of good governance, that is.
Firstly and most importantly, the Igbos should isolate their block from any wasteful exercise into the presidency for now because believe me, inasmuch as I trust the capabilities of the average Igbo man, that is not what will get you the keys to Aso Rock. If political morality and honest sense of purpose is the wining formula in Nigeria, Gani would have been governor of Lagos long ago. By concentrating on the development of the South-East, you will make other ethnic groups drool saliva in envy after the next 8 years of northern rule. This, you can only achieve by enforcing security and undertaking ONLY in those quality projects that will create much needed employment and foreign exchange. Such foreign exchange could be from the so many products and services in which you have excelled thus far. The Southeast is the only part of the Nation blessed with enough immediate human and material resources needed to free their people from the shackles of unemployment and mismanagement. You could not get your political confederation by use of arms, but you can achieve something similar through an effective economic strategy; that is administered efficiently.
As far as I see it, Nigeria is just slowing the Igbos down economically and if they can review and start a systematic approach to their areas of specialty, then the sky would not be the limit. Ask Ojukwu (or anyone) to come back and lead you into an ‘economic war’ with the rest of the world and not just Federal Republic of Nigeria. Channel your skills, resources and hardwork properly towards an economic revolution. The Igbos don’t need a political Ohaneze. You need an economic think-tank that would fashion out the road-map to your economic dominance in the country! Afterall, what has the Ohaneze achieved for you apart from vice-presidency and failed presidential candidates? If such an economic strategy though an Igbo think tank can come up with a vision (e.g. fund their universities in ONLY those courses and areas that would bring results), you would justify the estimations of Fredrick Forsythe. When he corresponded for the British Media during the Biafran war, he affirmed that at that time, Eastern Nigeria had more doctors and engineers than the rest of Africa put together. Is that situation still true as of today?
I foresee a time soon enough, when the Igbos in the East would proudly put “Made in Aba” as a sign of genuine international quality on shoes, bags, automobile parts, luxury goods and what have you. I anticipate a future, not too distant, when information technology spare parts and devices would be churned out from your silicon valley. I dream about the Igbos modernizing our national transportation not just through Chisco-type of luxurious buses, but through a well established high-speed train network across the Niger and Benue. This would not only facilitate the movement of people, but as well as goods from our congested ports. Should the rail network be made to also carry petro-chemical products, then this would not only make pipeline vandals go out of business, but would also save resources and lives and create many more jobs in the process.
Only Igbo men and/or South-southerners can achieve this for now. The rest of our wealthy men and thieving politicians don’t know anything about investment, ehmm, well except for running unprofitable chicken and yoghurt farms along express roads. By the time you teach the rest of Nigeria, what it means to be a productive component of the failed federation, then, I am positive, PDP, ANPP, AD, QDX, JBR, KNPP or whichever parties that have the sharpest claws; would be falling over each other to sign your illustrious sons as presidential candidate. Yet, this will not happen over night. Nonetheless, if and when this happens, the South-East would find ready supporters and voters most especially in the North, where the SI unit of abject poverty and neglect is derived. A time would come when the poverty- and radically-inspired clashes and killings (across the nation) will be a thing of the past. When cultural and religious self-respect becomes ingrained in the mindset of the average northerner, he would not mind voting anyone who will cater for his interests. You may be right to ask at this stage why the north or northerner? Well, the answer can be found in the electoral results of the few erratic democracies Nigeria has experienced so far. If Charles Taylor, himself can get the support of the northern voter today, he would lead Nigeria tomorrow.
Now, let us examine an immediate possible scenario…what if a lot of Ghana-must-gos change hands in our Senate/National Assembly and the constitution is modified for a single 5 year term?. Ah… don’t smile yet oh! Obasanjo got the keys to Aso Rock on May 29th 1999 simply because by acts of omission and commission, the Southwest was prepared to take up the post. The ground work was laid out in the dying days of IBBs regime all though the NADECO days of international outcry and blackmail. We all know now that it does not matter that Obasanjo does not attend AD party meetings. We all know his agenda and inclinations. So the question is this…If the Igbos are allowed by PDP (for instance) to produce the candidate for 2007, how can they guarantee victory against an IBB or an Atiku who may as well decamp to ANPP? Remember, all that anybody needs to be a president, is the Northern votes. The Southwest learnt this biter lesson through the 0.0013% or so votes that they gave Obasanjo in 1999 (through his blood relatives). So tell me, what are the plans on ground to guarantee that you Igbos will not be stabbed in the back by an alliance between an Atiku and a Falae?
The situation then would be unsalvageable and we have just two years to go. That is why I keep emphasizing the need for all efforts to be geared towards an Igbo presidency after the next northern experiment. This would make it 2012 (assuming a 5-year term) at the earliest or 2015 (assuming an 8-year term) at the latest. As un-chewable and grossly unpalatable as this may sound to some Igbos, if any of you can show me an alternative way (apart from hollering at Ohaneze meetings about your turn to rule) then, I promise to lobby the webmaster of this site about creating a special column for me and others for campaigning on Igbo presidency by 2007. I know 2012 or 2015 seems like forever, but if you have waited this long, you can wait again but this time, plan well. The collective mistake Nigeria made as a whole was that when power was agreeable allowed to shift to the South in 1999, we took it for granted that it should be a South-westerner. History likes to repeat itself when people don’t pay attention to it. In any case, events in PDP have shown the unprepared ness of the Igbos. Besides, the north is hungrier than the South-east right now for Aso Rock. But the Igbos have a choice now to either do their homework or watch a South-westener fold his agbada on the steps of Aso Rock by 2012 or 2015.
I do not see any leader from any other part of the country having sufficient good-will and chronic determination needed to take Nigeria out of this mess as for now, apart from an Igbo man or possibly a South-southerner. I admire the current success of some of their governors. If it means working towards this goal while waiting till the time is right, so be it. I shall be patient. Those of you, who see even a small sign of logic and reason behind this article, may decide to forward this article to your fellow Igbo men and your close ethnic next of kins. Importantly, start doing something about the sort of economic grand master plan afore mentioned. As for those who think I am simply a paid writer sponsored by an interest group to dissuade you from contesting in 2007, well; you are entitled to your opinion and myopic prejudices. Just don’t send me any angry email. Write a rejoinder to this website and present your point of view instead. All I am saying is that 2007 is infeasible and if you don’t make hay now, come the year 2012 or 2015, the political sun will NOT shine on you and I will write the concluding part of my trilogy, and deep down inside your heart… you know I will be vindicated when a Southwesterner beats you to the steps of Aso Rock.
God Bless Nigeria.
April 2004
|