Is Awo's prediction coming to pass?
By
I cannot now remember the circumstances, but I think it had to do with the Second Republic behemoth of a party, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). In the 1983 general election, the NPN won its famous landslide, seaslide and moonslide victories.
Some of these victories were fraudulent such as the snatching of the old Enugu State from Azikiwe’s Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) and old Oyo State from Awo’s Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN).
The loss of Enugu and Oyo, the heartlands of both Zik’s and Awo’s political empires respectively, was an act of great humiliation to both founding fathers of Nigeria. The defeat was deliberately inflicted to humiliate these old men and to give the warriors of the NPN the sadistic glee that their party was it. In fact, a notorious NPN apparatchik was heard boasting that there were only two parties in Nigeria: NPN and the military.
About two months after this insensitive boasting, the other party, the military, won a stunning, unscheduled "gunslide" election against their rival and proceeded to remain in power for 15 long, harrowing years.
Let us get back to our NPN, Zik and Awo’s story. While the late Owelle of Onitsha, the Right Honourable Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe lamented the questionable loss of Enugu to the all-conquering NPN by maintaining in his usual philosophical calmness that "history will vindicate the just", the late Chief Jeremiah Obafemi Awolowo said in his jeremiad that if this generation was not careful, we would not witness democracy in our lifetime.
Events in the political scene today have compelled me to ask the question: Will Awo’s chilling prophecy come to pass? It is as if a demon pilot has taken over the saddle or cockpit of our ship of state and is determined to ride it relentlessly until it crashes against a rock.
The times we are in call for statesmen. But all we seem to have are politicians whose sole motivation is selfish ambition and vain conceit. Every step they take seems clearly designed to beg the military to come back and take over the reins of power.
Every blessed day we have a remarkable replay of the evil events that led to the fall of the Second Republic. For a start, our ruling party today, the PDP, is a replica of the NPN of the Second Republic. And the PDP is a very poor replica indeed. The NPN was a much more disciplined and cohesive party whose single-minded goal was to dominate its environment.
Although the PDP has a similar desire, its members are undisciplined. Although they are a majority in both houses of the National Assembly, even executive Bills do not sail smoothly through in the place. In fact, many of the president’s Bills have been rejected outright.
The NPN then had what used to be known in communist system as the party ideologue, the guardian angel of the party, the Mr. Fix It, the Man Friday or person of that description in the person of Alhaji Umaru Dikko, the PDP has its replica in Chief Tony Anenih who is known either affectionately or derisively as The Leader.
While Umaru Dikko told the late M. K. O. Abiola in a coded message that the 1983 presidency was not for sale, Anenih’s own version of the same message to the likes of Gemade, Rimi, Atiku Abubakar and Ike Nwachukwu, is that there is no vacancy in Aso Villa for the year 2003.
Towards 1983, there was clamour that the democratic space be further opened so that Nigerian can have wider choices by having many more parties. The NPN was very unwilling to accede to that clamour. And when it grudgingly did, it merely allowed FEDECO then to register Tunji Braithwaite’s Nigeria Advance Party (NAP), a concession that was calculated more to weaken Awo’s UPN than to present a choice for voters.
Now, the ruling PDP appears unwilling to allow the registration of many more parties when it is clear that doing so will improve the fortunes of the party rather than hurt it. Is there a cruel, invisible force that is pushing us to our own doom in order to fulfil some curse or prophecy against us?
The parallels between 1983 and 2003 are not over yet. What led to the collapse of the Second Republic is not so much incompetence or non-performance. The single most important factor was the deliberate attempt to deny others their legitimate right to get to positions of power. The coup de grace was the cheating of Awo and Zik of their "safe" states.
As it was in 1983 so it does appear it will be now. Today, it is not just the PDP, the equivalent of the NPN, which seems determined to play politics of exclusion. All the existing parties are bent on doing so, through the charging of exorbitant nomination fees. The PDP is asking governorship and presidential aspirants to pay three and five million naira respectively while the ANPP is charging its own five and ten million naira.
This is certainly a mischievous design to keep out not so wealthy but honest persons from aspiring to these important positions. Such mischief breeds deep resentment and frustration on the part of those targeted to be excluded. Some of such silently or openly pray for the military to come back.
When did money become a test of manhood, a test of one’s seriousness to offer service? As at today, no one has answered Olisa Agbakoba’s witty poser about why an applicant for a job should pay an application fee that is higher than his expected remuneration.
Democracy is supposed to be an inclusive system – the poor, the rich and the not-so-rich are all supposed to be part and parcel of governance. But what we see today is a deliberate, mischievous and wicked attempt to constrict the space, to narrow the door to the democratic kingdom against the disadvantaged.
In 1983 there was a greater willingness on the part of party leaders to allow for a free and fair contest between incumbents and challengers. Today, leaders of the three major parties all appear very reluctant to provide a level playing field for incumbents and aspirants. Left to them they will enthusiastically grant incumbents automatic ticket for the sake of "continuity".
Party elders or rather "owners" believe that continuity of individuals no matter how woeful ther performance, is more important than continuity of the system itself. Part of what makes democracy a preferred system is the excitement it provides such as when a dark horse defeats a favourite against all odds. Now, our party elites want to deny the system of even some small excitement.
No room is being allowed for aggrieved voters to vent their anger on non-performing elected officials. There is one Senator I know who cannot name up to 100 persons from his constituency of five local government areas! He was foisted on the people by power mongers who wanted to make a point that they can do and undo. Yet, with what is being contemplated by all the major parties, voters may not get the opportunity to democratically teach the Senator and his backers a lesson.
Some commentators have written about the Samson instinct among some of our politicians. Few have bothered to think about the probable cause. The truth is that if anyone perceives rightly that he is not being given a fair chance, he will have no option but to wish that the whole house should collapse on all so that there will be no victor but only vanquished! Such is human nature.
From the few comparative examples I have cited, it is clear that we were even more democratic in 1983 than we are now. It does appear that rather than learn from the history of our past mistakes, we seem bent to repeat those errors and even compound them.
This inexorably leads me to Awo’s curse or prophecy: are we of this generation condemned not to enjoy democracy? From the modest spiritual insight that I have, I do know that a person or a people can work out salvation from a curse or a negative prophecy. This can be done through prayer, repentance and a grim determination to forsake the evil ways which brought about the condemnation.
Are our leaders willing that democracy should thrive in our land? Are they willing to open the democratic space for all comers to express their legitimate political rights? If they are, the tall, fierce-looking, no-nonsense Adamawa-born major whom a man of God has predicted will come to shed blood to cleanse our land of all our iniquities may not show up. Rather, God will, in his own way, put into power God-fearing, sensitive, competent and prudent men and women who will steer our ship safely ashore.
The PDP is the single most powerful party in the land today. A lot depends on what the PDP will do or not do. Fortunately, the man who is in charge of that party is a man who is widely known for his integrity. It won’t be too much if I say that the fate of this nation hangs on Chief Innocent Audu Ogbeh. Will Audu Ogbeh "join them" and cause our fourth attempt at democracy to crash or will he separate himself and help us to release ourselves from Awo’s curse?
Dec 2002