The many troubles of Obasanjo 

by

 Dele Shobowale

"A clown is a man sitting on a throne of ice wondering when it will all melt away" Red Skelton, American comedian 1968

President Obasanjo is not a clown; far from it. Although he frequently regales his listeners with rib-cracking humour when he is in the mood for jokes indicating that he probably missed his real calling as a stand-up comedian. Some have argued, in my opinion, with envy that his jokes are not really that funny; people only laugh because "a rich ( and powerful) man’s jokes are always funny "(T.E Brown 1830 - 1897) at least to his camp-followers. Still Obasanjo, an astute observer of human events cannot possibly find what is happening around him and right before his eyes funny. Against his will, Aremu, can observe a convergence of forces which are aimed at one goal. That is to ensure that Obasanjo does not get a second term. The man who said "I dey kampe" in response to Senator Nzeribe’s failed impeachment bid and his top "errand boy" (courtesy Governor Kalu) who preclaimed "No vacancy in Aso Rock in 2003 must be wondering if they had not spoken too soon. Hubris can bring humiliating consequences as Senator Okadigbo has found out to his chagrin.

The parallel between Okadigbo’s fall from grace and Obasanjo’s predicament are not far fetched as some might suppose. Shortly after escaping the second attempt to remove him as Senate President, a reporter had asked the Oyi if the repeated attempts were not part of our learning process. The reply was vintage Okadigbo: "Others may be learning, but I am no longer learning. I am a master of the game". well, the master of the game just got trounced by "learners". So much for hubris. In the same vein, when Obasanjo announced "I dey kampe and his echo replied : No vacancy in Aso Rock" they both spoke against the backdrop of rapidly shifting political under-current whose overall effect might lead to Obasanjo’s ouster from Aso Rock in 2003. Last year, the PDP appeared as solid as, well, old yam pounded without water. Today, holding the party together and maintaining discipline, never mind esprit de corps, is like trying to sew buttons on agidi. Suddenly the President appears to have more enemies within his own coalition of groups constituting the PDP than amongst opposition parties. Ironically, it is Governors of the Alliance for Democracy; some from APP and an eccentric APP Senator who have started to champion Obasanjo’s re-election in what could turn out to be a kiss of death; especially the AD governors endorsement. From my point of view, Obasanjo is in deep trouble; he has in the two years leading up to May 29, 2001 alienated broad segments of the political class who brought him into power even when rigging is acknowledged. What follows is not an exhaustive list, but by itself it should be of concern to the President and his few, very few, loyal supporters because the forces are formidable.

Gowon's revenge: General Yakubu Gown’s downfall as Head of State propelled Obasanjo, who was his Federal Commissioner for Works, to the post of Chief of General Staff under General Murtala Mohammed who was assassinated a few months after in a coup attempt by Lt-Colonel Dimka. Obasanjo suceeded Murtala and the armed forces conducted an inquiry (or was it an inquisition?) which implicated Gowon in the assassination. General Bisalla, Lt-Colonel Dimka, Major Ola Ogunmekan and others got the bullet; Gowon was convicted in absentia, dismissed from the army and became a fugitive. Only God knows if indeed Gowon was an accomplice; but the rapid slide down the greasy slope from grace to grass which Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821) said requires only one step must have wounded Gowon’s pride. It is doubtful, if Gowon whose rank and entitlements were restored by Babangida could ever have forgiven Obasanjo that disgrace despite his new profile as in itinerant preacher and leader of NIGERIA PRAYS.

Since Gowon’s return from exile, the path of the two former Heads of State had not crossed; so Gowon never had a chance to retaliate, until now. Obasanjo’s ascendancy to the Presidency for the second time would ordinarily have again placed him beyond Gowon’s reach if Nigeria’s political quicksand had not brought the opportunity. The north which had imposed Obasanjo on the nation had become increasingly disenchanted with his even-handedness which was an affront to a region accustomed to lopsidedness in it’s favour in the allocation of revenue and resources. Today, the north is set to dump Obasanjo; but to achieve that objective, the north needed to regroup under a unified regional organisation. Enter Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) which Gowon now heads after the usual sort of denials and obfuscations.

Although Gowon proclaims that his descent from national leader to regional champion has national unity as its objective, only dimwits will believe him. Primordial instincts are at work and there is personal vendetta as well. From his new vantage point, Gowon could help bring about the downfall of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government and just as Abacha used Obasanjo’s own 1979 decree to nail him; the northern President ACF installs could once again put Obasanjo in the dock using the anti-Corruption Act passed last year. "And thus the whirling of time brings in its revenges" (Shakespeare 1546 - 1616).

National Solidarity Association (NSA): The National Solidarity Association can proxy for about half a dozen or more political associations portending the inevitable realignment of political forces in Nigeria. General Abubakar’s hasty and partly fraudulent transition programme which returned Obasanjo to power produced all sorts of strange bedfellows in the three political parties and the strains are showing. Added to that is the usual carpet-crossing associated with unprincipled politicians who would decamp to winning parties after each election. To be sure the last election was one almost totally devoid of principles since every party except AD lacked any manifesto; still principles count for some. But the real impetus for new political associations is widespread dis-enchantment with Obasanjo by various groups, quite often for different and sometimes contradictory reasons. The core north had supported Obasanjo because he could be trusted not to disturb the status quo under which the north received the lion’s share of national income produced largely by the south especially the oil-producing states. Obasanjo’s even-handedness in that regard and in appointments have offended them. It is natural for those who garnered thirty-four Commissioners of Police out of thirty-six and over seventy-five percent of Federal top appointments under Abacha to assume that it is their birth right to continue to do so. The north wants inequity to continue. South-East and South-South had become disenchanted for various reasons especially on the matters relating to derivation, on-shore/off-shore dichotomy; true Federalism and now resource control. Today, the battle line is firmly drawn and Obasanjo has a major task on his hands holding the people in line. His recent tour of Bayelsa and Imo states would not fit under the title "How To Win Friends and Influence People". He was extremely annoying to Igbos.

Even the North Central (or is it Middle Belt) and the South-West remain dicey. Rubbishing Gemade in public; supporting Gemade against Awoniyi in 1999 for PDP Chairmanship; side-lining former Chairman Solomon Lar who piloted the party to victory and earning himself the undying enmity of Senator Kuta cannot exactly constitute the best strategy for holding the area. And despite the campaign of South-West AD governors for Obasanjo’s second term; their own need for re-election on the platform of AD will eventually force them to drop Obasanjo and return to the fold of AD. At any rate, AD governors will not vote at the PDP Presidential primaries in 2003; that is, assuming there is still a PDP worth talking about. That the PDP might not survive intact, and the fact that major elements in PDP now constitute the members of the emerging political associations will constitute the most difficult challenge to Obasanjo’s re-election. He might simply find himself abandoned with a few heavyweights in the PDP while the vast majority from North, South-East and South-South drift elsewhere. and without the followership, Obasanjo who is not a charismatic leader; neither is he a founder of PDP might not have the votes for re-election assuming he emerges again as PDP flagbearer. A decimated PDP will be no platform for re-election in 2003.

The man who announced "No vacancy in 2003" might have spoken too previously. There might indeed be no candidate called Obasanjo in 2003 ........