I RECALL an article, "The stolen presidency", published in the Sunday Tribune of November 4, 1979. It was written by Tai Solarin whom I shall simply describe here as a great Nigerian and a leading member of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). He was writing five weeks after the installation of Shehu Shagari, on October 1, 1979, as president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

In that article, Tai Solarin, now late, made an unusual kind of political projection: "if this government (meaning the Federal Government of President Shehu Shagari) lasts for four years, the four-year NPN (National Party of Nigeria) will have been firmly planted as Government Party everywhere, and the UPN, GNPP, the NPP and the PRP will have been drained to annihilation, both in membership" it is already starting" and in morale. The 1983 election would , therefore, be between the NPN and the Revolutionary Party, which having studied how the NPN came to power, knows exactly what to do to supplant the NPN for the presidency. There would then be a confusion on the national raft. Then a splash. Then commotion among the sharks. And we, the common people, will have, as victims, paid the supreme sacrifice".

Tai Solarin's projection can be separated into three parts. The first was that within four years, the "victorious" NPN would have been "firmly planted" as the government party everywhere, that is, including the Western States whose governments the UPN then controlled. In the second projection, Tai Solarin said that within four years the parties in opposition to the NPN, that is, GNPP, NPP, PRP and his own party, UPN, would have been "drained to annihilation" in membership and morale, that is, as a political force. The third projection was the boldest of them all.

It was that the election of 1983 would be between NPN, that is, the Government Party, and the Revolutionary Party which was yet to emerge as a consequence of NPN installing itself as a government party everywhere and the opposition parties being drained to annihilation. History realised the first two projections in full. For its realisation, the third projection required both objective and subjective factors. The objective factor was presented by history, in full; but the subjective factor was tragically missing.

We may take the first two projections together. Chief Obafemi Awolowo's last political battle was to keep his party, the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) together against the relentless pressure of the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) between 1979 and 1983. As soon as Shehu Shagari was announced winner of the presidential contest, Chief Awolowo rallied the other presidential candidates: Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigerian People's Party (NPP), Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim of the Great Nigerian People's Party (GNPP) and Mallam Aminu Kano of the People's Redemption Party (PRP).

The four veterans held a joint press conference, rejecting the result of the presidential election. The critical ground of rejection was that Alhaji Shehu Shagari did not score at least one-quarter of the total votes cast in each of at least two-thirds of the total number of states in Nigeria. The published results showed that Shagari scored at least one-quarter of the votes cast in only 12 of the 19 states into which Nigeria was then divided. The critical question was: What is two-third of 19 states? Awolowo said it was 13. The electoral body, following the opinion of NPN, said it was 12 two-third. The Supreme Court of Nigeria decided it was the latter, and Shagari was proclaimed president.

The opposition parties later formed the Progressive Parties Alliance (PPA) of four parties, or rather, of the governors elected on the platforms of four parties: UPN, NPP, GNPP and PRP. UPN controlled the governments of the five western states: Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ondo and Bendel. NPP controlled three states: Anambra, Imo and Plateau. GNPP controlled two states: Borno and Gongola; and PRP controlled two states: Kaduna and Kano. The ruling NPN controlled the remaining seven states: Rivers, Cross River, Kwara, Sokoto, Bauchi, Benue and Niger. Thus, on the face of it, the opposition was formidable, especially given the fact that their combined strength in the National Assembly, if applied, could block any federal legislation. But this was not to be. Before long, NPP reached an "accord" with the NPN and joined the federal government. The PRP leadership, after "expelling" its two governors from the party, moved close to the ruling NPN and got some of its leading members appointed advisers and assistants in the NPN federal government. The GNPP leadership also dealt with its "erring" governors and was accordingly compensated.

The NPP governors could not be expelled: rather, the governors forced their party out of the federal government. But in doing this, the NPP lost some of its leading members to NPN. The "draining to annihilation" predicted by Tai Solarin had started. Chief Awolowo and his party, the UPN, appeared impregnable. But not for too long. The crises in the UPN took three main forms: defections from the party to NPN in search of "greener pastures", struggles to supplant incumbent UPN governors as gubernatorial candidates of the party in succeeding elections; and opposition to Awolowo's alleged "rigidity", dictatorial tendencies", and "tribalism". Except that I do not subscribe to the charges against Chief Awolowo, I would say that the three forms of party crises were also present in Alliance for Democracy (AD) in Obasanjo's Republic.

By the time the first post-1979 general elections were held between August and September 1983, the UPN had been thoroughly shaken: it had not yet been "drained to annihilation", but Chief Awolowo had started to lose control of his party and many of his leading disciples. And, as a consequence of this, his ability to check the power of the federal government had begun to decline. Thus, the electoral body was able to announce, in August 1983, not only that Azikiwe and Awolowo were defeated, once again, by Shehu Shagari in the presidential election but also that the ruling NPN had increased the number of states it controlled from seven in 1979 to 12 in 1983. From UPN, NPN "captured" Oyo and Bendel States; it attempted to "capture" Ondo State, but failed.

It required the sacrifice of hundreds of human lives and millions of naira to make NPN disgorge what it had almost swallowed. The NPN released Kwara State to UPN. From NPP, NPN "captured" Anambra State. Imo State was spared because incumbent NPP governor, Sam Mbakwe, went on air to declare that if his mandate was stolen, then the robber would not live to use it. The NPN robbers knew he was serious. From PRP, NPN captured Kaduna State; and from the GNPP, the "ruling party" captured Borno and Gongola States, the only states the party controlled. In dealing with the opposition parties in this way, the NPN did not distinguish between the UPN and NPP which had remained steadfast in their opposition, and the GNPP and PRP, or rather their leaderships, which had since adopted the principle of "politics without bitterness", another name for accommodation with NPN. A similar thing has happened two decades later, in 2003. History has been repeated: only that in 2003, the party which sought accommodation with the Government Party, and was devastated, was the one flying Awolowo's flag.

We now come to Tai Solarin's third projection: the emergence of a Revolutionary Party which, "having studied how the NPN came to power knows exactly what to do to supplant the NPN for the presidency". It was a loaded projection. Unfortunately, we cannot recall Tai Solarin from his terminal slumber to throw more light on it. But I hope that Nigerians who went through the just concluded "elections" in the country will appreciate his line of thought. In any case, the projected Revolutionary Party did not emerge between 1979 and 1983.

It also did not emerge between 1999 and 2003. The Second Republic alliance of four parties and 12 governors did not lead to the emergence of a Revolutionary Party. When some of the governors reached out to leftists and socialists outside the party system, this did not lead to a Revolutionary Party which, according to Tai Solarin's projection, was the only means of supplanting the NPN. Revolutionary Leftists, on their own, did not succeed in forming or producing a revolutionary party. And NPN won again in 1983.

History has now been repeated before our eyes. In 1999, the PDP came to power under circumstances and considerations similar to those under which NPN came to power in 1979. What happened between 1999 and 2003 seemed to follow the script written for the Second Republic (1979-1983). PDP is the child of NPN. A revolutionary party did not emerge between 1999 and 2003 elections to engage this child, having, in the words of Tai Solarin, studied how it came to power in the first place. The PDP therefore "won" a second-term using exactly the same methods used by its father, the NPN, in 1983. Did I say "the same methods"? Yes, the same methods, but now thoroughly perfected. Do you ask me what methods? You know. Are you aggrieved? Then seek accommodation with the victorious PDP, or go to elections tribunals, or go back to Tai Solarin's historic projections. You cannot short-circuit history.

May 2003