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Obasanjo's oily Gamble by
They say art imitates life and life imitates art. All the outlandish things the irrepressible Fela sang about Nigeria has been coming through. So too what Chinua Achebe wrote in his novels and in that little volume of commentary, The Trouble With Nigeria.
So to find the answer to the question why Nigerians are not buying that hard sell that the most wonderful gift Nigerians stand in need of now and which will solve all their material problems is an increase in the pump price of petrol, let us turn to a musician. Meatloaf is his name. He plays hot scintillating hard rock. In the Bat Out Hell CD, there is this light-hearted track, "I'll Do Anything For Love." Towards the end, there is this dialogue between every boy and every girl (including even you).
Boy: "I would do anything for love, I'd run into that hell and back. You know its true and that's a fact. I'd do anything for love and there will be no turning back. There is one and only, the one and only promise I can keep: as long as the wheels are turning, as long as the fires are burning as long as your prayers are coming true, you better believe it, that I'd do any thing for love, but I won't do that."
Girl: "Will you raise me up, will you help me down? Will you get me out of this Godforsaken town? Will you make it a little less cold." Boy: "I can do that, I can do that." Girl: "Will you hold me sacred, will you hold me tight? Can you colourise my life, I'm so sick of this black and white? Can you make it a little less cold?" Boy: "Now, I can do that, oh, oh, I can do that." Girl: Willl you make me some magic, with your own two hands? Can you build an emerald city with these grains of sand? Can you give me something I can take home? Boy: "No, I can do that, oh, I can do that." Girl: "Will you cater to every fantasy I got? Will you hose me down with holy water if I get too hot? Will you take me to places I've never known?" Boy: "Oh, oh now I can do that." Girl: "After a while you will forget everything. It was a brief interlude and a brief midsummer night's fling. And you'll see that its time to move on." Boy: "I won't do that." Girl: "I know the territory, I've been around. It will all turn to dust and we will all fall down. And sooner or later you will be singing around."
You could notice the mournful tone of, and the fall in the boy's voice as he said his "I won't do that", knowing that he was matched against an experienced, worldly-wise-wench. That is the story of this year's IMF debate for that is exactly what the oil deregulation debate is.
Yet some folks are just lucky. Take President Olusegun Obasanjo and his main "dude", the Vee Pee Atiku Abubakar for instance: They seem to wear Telflons such that nothing, not even dust, can hang on them. Sometime in the not too distant future, students of media history will begin to analyse Obasanjo's seeming unending romance with the mass media. Please note that this romance is notably one-sided as the President was never a slave to publicity or journalists. This makes it all the more remarkable for anybody who has been following the Nigerian media, should know how iconoclastic they have been. It will not be enough to say that Obasanjo will have the support of the South-West axis or the mass media simply because he is from that zone.
For one, recent events have shown that both the herd mentality and the might of that section of the press have been terribly exaggerated. Take an event for instance despite the unbridled howling for the head of the Speaker of the House of Representatives by a certain section of the media, nothing and absolutely nothing happened. Oh, sorry, something happened, a shy fellow from Kano, who is as unassuming as they come, was turned into a folk hero and national figure of some sort.
The great rapprochement which took place between the presidency and the legislature, spoke volumes about Obasanjo both as an individual and as a statesman. Throughout history societies have gone through tragedies just because their leaders could not summon the courage to retrace their steps from all certain doom. With their bloated egos as their primary interests, they never hesitated to embark on marches of folly.
Ego? Obasanjo appears too down to earth to be encumbered by that great affliction of the terribly vain. And Atiku appears tool humble for that. So why this fixed intention to hazard all their personal good names and achievements on this oily gamble? Moreover, why are they so willing to hazard their re-election on that same oily gamble? Most importantly, why do they want to hazard the comfort of the citizenry on a throw of the dice?
It is now clear that the government is hell-bent on effecting the increase in the cost of petroleum products. And it is so bullish in doing this as though those in the present administration have the monopoly of love for this nation. Also they act as though all other Nigerians cannot begin to understand the issues affecting the price of petrol. And yes, they behave as though the issue if so crystal clear therefore only imps and unpatriotic citizens are against the price increase.
Yet, are there pertinent questions that Obasanjo and his advisers on petroleum have not answered. May we field some here?
Why must a people live on the banks of the River Niger and still wash their hands with spittle? When is the price of fuel too high or too low? Whose duty is it to stop fuel smugglers? And if the Customs and the Police have surrendered that fight to smugglers, is it not theirs and Obasanjo's failure? Should Nigerians be debating how to increase petrol price just to finally fix the smugglers when they should be talking of voting into power an administration that will deal with smugglers? And if the NNPC leadership has not been able to get Nigeria's four refineries optimally functional why have they not been fired 18 months down the road? When did Moses bring down that 11th commandment from God that it is only when the price of fuel is increased by a yet unknown margin that Nigeria will become awash with petrol? If the present price of fuel is increased today and the value of the Naira falls tomorrow, will there not be another need to increase the price yet again? If yes, will it not be better to first shore up the Naira rate of exchange before deciding the adequate and realistic price of petrol as any loss in the Naira value will automatically affect the price of petrol?
Yet the most important story of all is this: when will Nigeria begin to correct the mistake it made when she accepted the IMF jumbo loans of the late 1970s? Without those loans, Nigeria would not have been in this mess; and for anyone to deny that the hand of IMF is in this is to lie to himself. How right Chinweizu was! He warned in an essay in Africa magazine that Nigeria would be falling into the espionage trap if it took the IMF loans.
More about that later. May we just return to the IMF, sorry, oil deregulation debate. From the government's point of view, the debate is becoming awry. No matter whatever any government functionary says, the answer is the same; no fuel-price increase. Why is nobody willing to even give the government the benefit of the doubt?
The answer is easy. In 1973 Gowon increased petrol price. Obasanjo did the same in 1979, so did Babangida in 1986, 1990, 1991 and 1993. Abacha followed suit in 1994, Abdulsalami in 1998. they all sang the same song, told the same tales, made the same promises...told the same lies... In the end the citizenry ended up more pauperized, even as less and less amount of fuel was available in the streets. All the while, nobody offered any apologies.
Why is it that in Venezuela the per litre price of petrol is N15? Kuwait N22, United Arab Emirates, N26 and Saudi Arabia, N26? All of them are oil producing countries. Venezuela, a third world country has a GNP of $3,020. Our leaders will not ask themselves such questions. Instead they will lie to themselves and their own country by coming up with a fallacy when they begin to compare petrol prices in the USA or France.
What is the per capita income in some other places? Sorry, this line of argument has to wait for another day for on this Thursday March 8, 2001 night, a press release came in from the office of the Secretary to the Federal Government, Chief U.J.Ekaette, confirming the government intention to increase the fuel price no matter what happens.
The release announced the setting up of a committee of 25 under the Mr. Deregulation himself, Chief Rasheed Gbadamosi which will (a) "establish an information data bank through liaison with all relevant agencies to facilitate the making of informed and realistic decisions on pricing policies". In other words, the government had all along lacked the information on which to base "realistic decisions." But do not dwell too much on this government speak which really means nothing though it is clothed in flowery plumes of important sounding words.
The committee will (b) moderate "volatility in petroleum products prices, whilst ensuring reasonable returns to operators." That is to say, this committee will be another standing one even in this most bloated of governments. Where is the down-sizing that is supposed to come with privatization?
To fast forward to the main issue in the release, please go to the next item; "To oversee the implementation of the White Paper on the report of the Special Committee on the review of Petroleum Products Supply and Distribution as they relate to its functions, taking cognizance of the phasing of the specific proposals." That really is the sole reason of that release except that it also named those who are to inflict this punishment on the citizenry. What about the debate on the issue which the government set up? Is not listening to the people akin to an exercise of the people's mandate? Perhaps, this is true in this unfortunate part of the world where leaders do whatever they liked. By last September, some parts of Europe suffered fuel shortage. Britain which was involved toyed with the idea of adding just two pence to its per litre pump price. Immediately, newspapers were awash with the forecast that the increase will cost Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour Party government the next election. On the same Thursday night as the reporter was writing this piece, word came that the two pence increase in Britain has been rescinded.
In Nigeria such things are never tied to elections. So our leaders behave like oracles... with all the answers. Yet, is there such a thing as the curse of oil? The answer may have to wait for another day. January 2001
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