Obasanjo and Consensus Candidacy

By 

Arthur Nzeribe

I begin by quoting parts of Amanze Obi's article: "Obasanjo As Consensus Candidate" (THISDAY August 21, 2001) viz; "Soon and very soon, the polity will go awash with campaigns, advertorials and solidarity visits all of which will be urging the President to return for 2003". Continuing, Obi said: "And soon too, we will discover that no mention will be made of alternative candidates. In fact, we will be told that there is no alternative to Obasanjo. At this point, the existing political parties will do the most likely thing - adopt him as consensus candidate for 2003 polls..."

After reading the article under reference, I was tempted to summon my other colleagues in the Movement For National Consensus And Accommodation (MONAC) for the winding up of the organisation. The argument I would have put forward would have been that MONAC has achieved its objective far more ahead of time. For, going by Obi's revelation, an entirely new organisation, which he referred to as "VOA 2003", has already built on the solid foundation laid by MONAC to embark on an "unabashed campaign" to return President Obasanjo as a consensus candidate for the 2003 elections. Obi also suggested that the managers of Obasanjo's presidential project know about the VOA 2003. Besides, there has been no denials as usual.

Obi and the authors of VOA 2003 are not Nigeria but they have, without mentioning it, vindicated MONAC. To be candid, I have never come across any of VOA 2003 campaign messages but I am quite certain that there are multiples of organisations like it already in existence, springing up in the footsteps of MONAC.

It is not "very soon" as Obi tried to predict. It is already happening. Now. Flip through the pages of our newspapers and you will discover that the same matter for which the so-called critics threw invectives on me and my colleagues less than six months ago is becoming a national past time. The "No vacancy" postulation is made every other day, with tacit official approval.

Let me pose one question: When will Nigerians learn to accept the message instead of always trying to throw away both the message and the messenger? Since nobody can actually re-write history, let me without any pretensions or apology, remind my fellow country men of the following: In 1993, I told Nigerians, based on an objective assessment of the situation on ground, that the military was not yet ready to hand over power to civilians. I facilitated the formation of the Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) to campaign for a negotiated exit of the military from governance. Nobody listened. We were dubbed paid agents. At the end what happened? Did the military hand over? Did we as a nation not pay a heavy price for our penchant for the emotive rather than the objective and scientific in our political life? At the risk of sounding immodest, I dare say that ABN would have saved Nigeria the hell it went through between November 1993 and June 1998. Of course, I concede to those who hold a contrary view but I remain unrepentant on my position on ABN and what we had set out to achieve, and indeed achieved.

It was for this reason that I was thoroughly amused by the type of reactions that greeted the formation of MONAC earlier in the year. The arguments I read in disapproval of it were all warped. MONAC was called a re-incarnation of ABN. Well, such observation may not be entirely faulted at least to the extent that I, Arthur Nzeribe, was involved. But there is a lot more to it and today, I dare say: there we go again.

Returning to Obi's article, however, I must state that I was rather disappointed that he shied from dwelling on the logical and scientific reasons why Obasanjo may inexorably end up as a consensus candidate. For me personally, the two scenarios - one of the late General Sani Abacha in 1998 and the one envisaged for Obasanjo beginning from next year - are not similar at least for one reason. The consensus candidacy for Abacha in 1998 was a matter of mechanical precision about which no Nigerian politician had a choice. There was no logic leading to it. It was a command that was to be obeyed. It was crude and unprofessional..

But the 2002/2003 scenario is different. We can see with our clear eyes the sequential logic that will lead to Obasanjo's sole candidacy, devoid, entirely, of any totalitarian fiat. We have presented this logic several times over but we are never tired of doing it again. Obi sounds despondent when he says, "... we will be told. . . " No. Nobody will tell Nigerians. They will see it, feel it, smell it, even touch it. How did we know?

I had in a previous article earlier this year argued that come May 2003, Nigerians will be saluting, as their president, either a re-elected Chief Olusegun Obasanjo or a second - timer, Alhaji Ibrahim Babangida. Barely six months later and in spite of spirited efforts by his teaming supporters, to draft him into the presidential race, it is almost certain that the Minna - born General will not run. IBB, as we fondly call him, will not run for that election unless he is 101 per cent sure that he will win. The IBB I know is not a gambler. From all indications the Babangida Presidency project in 2003 is not on.

Talks about Babangida and the 2003 presidential election have gone on in a manner that suggests that he is the only factor, as if to say that the three political parties as entities do not matter. Of course, that is what the situation has turned out to be. As I had said in a previous article, it is not the parties, the PDP, the APP and the AD, but Babangida that poses a problem to Obasanjo as far as the 2003 Presidential election is concerned.

First, the PDP is his. He is PDP and PDP is him. Ever since his "Mr. Fix it" declared "No vacancy in Aso Rock", no PDP member has said anything significantly to the contrary. Good, Abubakar Rimi launched a presidential campaign but over one month later, how many rallies has he addressed? Only recently, PDP's chairman, Barnabas Gemade, was reported as saying that the party was considering, as a matter of policy of presenting all incumbent elected office holders as its candidates for the 2003 election at all levels. This includes, of course, President Obasanjo. We need not go far to see that it is a way of giving all PDP Governors and Local government Chairmen an incentive to ensure they deliver their areas to Obasanjo. Again, recently something which must have thrown the Obasanjo campaign camp into jubilation took place in Aba, Abia state.

One is not unmindful of the argument by some that all the PDP top brats who left the party to form new ones will empty into the APP in the event that their parties are not registered. This is highly hypothetical but even so, I can not see how the Awoniyis, the Ume -Ezeokes, the Aikhomus etc, would have sufficiently recovered from the shock -of non-registration of their parties- to put up a good fight. If anything, they will be too pre-occupied with seeking legal redress and by the time they finish the elections would have been over.

In summary, what Obi and VOA 2003 campaigners have seen now is what MONAC saw over five months ago. The difference is that unlike them MONAC has gone further to propose to Nigerians to save themselves the rancour or agony of trying to resist this natural sequence of events which is gradually but surely leading to Obasanjo's sole candidacy. I don't care whatever anybody says, this was the type of message ABN gave Nigerians. But we threw away both the message and the messenger with dire consequences. I have heard people talk about "evil genius". A genius is genuine.

Finally, I would like to congratulate the brains behind VOA 2003. They certainly will not get the type of abuses we got in MONAC for the simple reason that today only a few Nigerians will get angry with the mention of Obasanjo as a sole candidate. Besides, the group is faceless. Less than four month ago, it was not so. But we braved it. It was not even the issue of sole candidacy. At the time MONAC come into existence, President Obasanjo's rating was at the lowest ebb. Apart from the Anenihs and the Gemades, nobody wanted to talk about his second term let alone as a consensus candidate. In fact, it was at that time that the phrase, "FORGET SECOND TERM" caught up with many Nigerians. I still take my bet. MONAC has paved the way, let others follow. As I said, it will come to pass or should I say, it has come to pass.