Obasanjo's Re-election and Foreign Policy
By
The re-election of President Olusegun Obasanjo has raised the problem of legitimacy and by extended implication, that of foreign policy. On the one hand, international election observers have, in their reports, given impression that the April 12 legislative election and the April 19 gubernatorial and presidential elections were "marred by serious irregularities and fraud," and mat minimum standards for democratic elections were not met. On the other hand, there have been well-informed analyses explaining the rationales for the electoral success of President Obasanjo at the polls.
For instance, the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) noted "many instances of ballot box stuffing, changing of results and other serious
irregularities" in Cross River, Delta, Enugu, Kaduna, Imo and Rivers. It said that "the elections in these states lack credibility". More importantly, the EU
EOM also noted that delayed and repeated polls "for the National Assembly Elections were not conducted in a transparent and credible manner"; that the federal
and state-owned media did not provide equal access and fair coverage of all political parties. On me contrary, they demonstrated political bias in favour of the
ruling parties at federal and state levels; that the nomination of candidates was often characterised by a process of selection rather than by election, in
other words, party politics in Nigeria is at best weak; mat the INEC failed to provide information on the exact dates and constituencies up for repeat and
postponed election in Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Anambra, Delta, Enugu, Kogi, Rivers and Zamfara states; that mere were "serious discrepancies between polling stations
level results and collated results in some constituencies in Edo, Enugu and Rivers States. In Kaduna State, an INEC official was observed thump-printing ballots
in favour of the ruling party. Similarly in the Calabar Municipality, a party agent and the presiding officer stuffed the ballot box. In Enugu, the police
stuffed ballots in the box. In fact, "in a cluster of four polling stations in Imo, the count revealed that 1100 ballots were cast when only 800 were officially
issued... Forgery of results, falsification of result sheets were noticed in Cross River, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Kaduna, Nassarawa state."
Most importantly, the EU EOM also raised the structural shortcomings of the 2003 elections. The independence of the electoral aumorities is not guaranteed by
the legal provisions governing the appointment and removal of INEC Commissioner. "Moreover, the legal provisions for complaints and appeals do not provide
voters with an easily accessible mechanism for seeking redress."
The foregoing observations and complaints by the EU EOM are pertinent in terms of their implications for credibility and legitimacy of the whole election. The
international monitors have suggested in this regard that irregularities be thoroughly investigated and addressed without delay, that election results be
published with a break down by polling station to enhance the transparency in me process and increase confidence in me final results, and that aggrieved parties
should resort only to legal remedies through the judiciary.
Thus, in terms of the foreign policy implications for me Government of Nigeria, foreign attitude towards the government and people of Nigeria may be largely
influenced by the EU EOM report. The report cannot be ignored since the EU EOM was invited by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and has been in the country since
11 March, 2003. The EU EOM deployed 118 observers all over Nigeria and is very likely to let all the member states of the EU believe that the 2003 election is
fraught with irregularities and fraud. Put differently, the first foreign policy challenge is how to better educate the international community about the
elections. The truth is mat, there might have been some irregularities and frauds, they are however, limited to some areas. They are not general. In the South
East for instance, even if the ruling party were to have lost the elections there, the PDP would still have won in the overall count. There is no disputing the
fact that, generally speaking, most Nigerians prefer Obasanjo's candidacy to all others.
Without doubt, President Obasanjo has his own inadequacies like all others. But when a choice has to be made between and among a given set of inadequacies, the
better inadequacies must be chosen. Nigerians have emphasised the need to protect democracy in their voting by accepting me election and its problems as they
are. Not only have most of the defeated candidates for legislative, gubernatorial and presidential seats, accepted defeat and congratulated the winners,
Nigerians want progress and peace.
The elections were generally peaceful and EU EOM has noted mis in its report. Even if there were flaws, there is room for improvement in the organisation of
future elections. A good attempt to transit from a civilian to another civilian regime was made consequently, the purpose of me EU EOM report must not be to
undermine the 2003 election but should be seen as an instrument to improve future elections. It should be a means of further reflection. More importantly, it
should not be a source of division but a basis for political dialogue among all parties in Nigeria. This is also necessary for maintaining national cohesion.
The report has the potential of igniting national disunity. In fact, the protesting political parties relied heavily on the report to justify their protests.
The Voice of Nigeria should be directed to play a major role in me enlightenment of all citizens of the world.
Apart from the need to re-explain the EU EOM and putting it in its proper context, the election also has other foreign policy implications. First, it points to
continuity of policy strategies. The use of the international environment to promote domestic growth and development will continue. In other words, emphasis on
foreign investments, personal diplomacy courtship of the developed countries, strengthening the capacity and capability of Nigerian professionals abroad and
encouraging them to provide assistance to government in national development efforts etc. will continue.
In 1999, the Government envisaged that the whole world would be the center-piece of Nigeria's foreign policy. True enough, emphasis was placed on Nigeria's
general interests in the world. However, the experiences of the past four years have clearly shown that the world cannot but begin with Africa in Nigeria's
global calculations. There is no world without Africa. Consequently, Africa is likely to continue to retain greater attention in foreign policy calculations.
This cannot but be so for many reasons. Crises and conflicts, especially in West Africa will compel a dynamic foreign policy. Nigeria's mediation role cannot be
ignored. ECOWAS parliament is scheduled to fully take off in 1995. Preparations for it will be challenging. The issue of NEPAD and AU will also retain greater
attention as well. In fact, US concerns about Africa not being used by terrorists against American interests will make Nigeria-US entente more important and
relevant. In fact, Nigeria's active presence in African affairs should also be understood in the context of the new office of the Special Adviser on Africa
(OSAA) at the United Nations. Nigeria's Professor Ibrahim Gambari has been appointed by Mr. Kofi Annan as the Special Adviser on Africa in compliance with UN
General Assembly resolutions 57t7 and 5?/300 of 2002. He will head the OSAA. In this regard, Kofi Annan said, the "OSAA shall provide backstopping to the
Secretary General in promoting a coordinated system-wide response in support of Africa's development, particularly the implementation, of the NEPAD." In other
words, the purpose of the OSAA is not different from Nigeria's objective of development in Africa. It is therefore expected that Professor Gambari will relate
more with Nigeria in achieving the objectives of the OSAA.
While the international environment will be set for Nigeria to play major roles, the domestic environment may not be good enough for sustaining Nigeria's
leadership role in the world. There is need for a strong economy, a Nigerian society that wants to work in order to produce, an efficient and effective
educational system in which the desire to go on strike will be at the barest minimum, a political class that is not self-serving but Nigerian-concerned in its
focus etc. In a society where people complain about impropriety of leaders, especially at the level of public officials, and the next reply is to dismiss the
complaint and the complainant, in a country where politicians are removed from office for reasons of impropriety but are thereafter appointed or nominated as
flag bearers and candidates of their parties and constituencies, in such a society, governance can never be based on objectivity of purpose and principle of
dint of hard work. Then it will be Nigeria of consumers rather than producers. Consequently, the success of Nigeria's foreign policy in the period 2003-2007
largely depends on the extent to which the domestic environment can be rebuilt to support our external operations.
May 2003