On One

On One-Term Obasanjo Presidency and Rotatory Succession

Burtonsville, MD, USA

An interesting development is brewing in Nigeria - again.

Back in late-January 2001, Chief Sunny Okogwu, Kaduna-based multi-millionaire businessman, the Ojise of Asaba (not to be confused with Chief Sonny Odogwu, the Ide Ihaba of Asaba), and brother-in-law to General Ibrahim Babangida dropped a bombshell which has set political tongues in Nigeria and abroad wagging. He alleged the existence of a political power pact (an "executive agreement") between politicians and military known only to a select few, particularly the pioneer chairmen of the three political parties. The content of the purported secret agreement as he explained it in an interview was to the effect that the nation's political power was to rotate among the three political parties with APP and AD following the current PDP in that order, AND between the South-West, South-East and South-South geo-political zones in that order for the next 12 years, with each doing ONE TERM each. The clincher, according to Okogwu, was that failure to respect the agreement would see the military return to power.

See: http://allafrica.com/stories/200103190578.html

'I Am Not Lying' - Okogwu Newswatch (Lagos) INTERVIEW March 19, 2001

This rather undemocratic "one-term" secret pact and complicated rotatory succession with a blackmail of the specter of return to military rule seems to be rather far-fetched at first bat, even though Okogwu is not known to publicly dabble into making political statements. The disclosure has suddenly led to increased vocal interest in the 2003 presidency from various quarters in Nigeria, individual and ethnic.

However everybody - and his mother - has since denied the existence of such a pact: VP Atiku, former (?) AD vice-chairman Ayo Adebanjo, Barnabas Gemade (PDP), Alhaji Abdulkadir Ahmed (AD) and Chief George Muoghalu (APP); Director, Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Godwin Ugbo, Lt.-Gen. Victor Malu, Nigeria's Chief of Army Staff and Dr. Olusola Saraki, to mention just a few. This denial has been reassuring to a few people, but to others, not so fast: they simply believe that you cannot deny what you were not called to be a party of. You can simply say that you don't know about it, but cannot swear that it does not exist.

The strange thing of course is that President Olusegun Obasanjo has kept mum about it, so has former head of state Abdusalami Abubakar and a few others who could probably know. And of course IBB, arguably the chief instigator of Obasanjo's candidature.

Enter Prof. Omo Omoruyi, one-time Center for Democratic Studies chairman in Nigeria and a one-time close adviser (confidante) to IBB. Digging into his memory archives, and writing recently in an article titled: "There was a one term pact": President Obasanjo should tell Nigerians the truth" he expressed no surprise at the Okogwu's disclosure, stating inter-alia:

QUOTE

"GO BACK TO POST EXPRESS OF MARCH 2, 1999.

I wish to refer to a newspaper account credited to one Senator-elect, Alhaji Ibrahim Kura Mohammed of Kano State in the POST EXPRESS of March 2, 1999 that General Obasanjo promised to serve for only one term. And he added the blackmail to the bombshell, in my view, that he would honor his pledge as he did it in 1976"

UNQUOTE

This (minor?) bombshell of its own appeared as a typical Omoruyi throw-away line, but if true - and noting that this was BARELY THREE DAYS AFTER THE FEBRUARY 27, 1999 presidential election contest between Obasanjo and Falae whose "hot" court contest of the results was barely getting off the ground - there would be much credence given to such an unsolicited disclosure of ONE-TERM presidency by then Senator-elect Kura Mohammed.

So I went looking for the reference, and indeed I found it:

QUOTE

http://www.postexpresswired.com/postexpress.

Category: Politics Date of Article: 03/02/99 Topic: Obasanjo is a Democrat, says Mohammed

Author: Bassey Inyang, Kano Full Text of Article:

A SENATOR-elect in Kano State, Alhaji Ibrahim Kura Mohammed has dispelled the rumours that a government headed by General Olusegun Obasanjo would scuttle democracy in Nigeria. Kura told The Post Express in Kano that the fact that General Obasanjo was backed by some retired Generals would not make his government a military one. When reminded that the Second World War II hero, Adolf Hitler assumed power through democratic means before transforming into a dictator, Kura said the situation in the pre-World War Germany was different, adding that dictatorship could not thrive in the country. Apart from the present political circumstance in the country, the senator-elect explained that his antecedence and present orientation was sufficient to allay such fears.

Kura described Obasanjo as a gentleman and an eminent international personality who he said, believes in the tenets of democracy, arguing that the nation stood to benefit from his presidency.

He equally reminded Nigerians that the general has promised to spend only one term, adding that he would honour his pledge as he did in 1979. (note: underline mine for emphasis)

The senator-elect also disclosed that Obasanjo would work under the control of National Assembly, saying that he could not act arbitrarily as a military head of state.

Kura said the upper and lower houses of the National Assembly would be composed of eminent personalities who would be guided by the overriding interest of the nation.

So, this time around there is going to be a world of difference between the former National Assembly and the new one," he stated.

UNQUOTE

Prof. Omoruyi was right about his reference after all - and very SINGULARLY attentive on this score! One would therefore like to ask from this rather colorful Senator Ibrahim Kura Mohammed: what did he know, and when did he know it? Where did he know it and how?

So what is my own verdict, reading the tea-leaves?

I believe that this informal pact does exist, because I am convinced that President Obasanjo could not, at the time he agreed to become president at the insistence of his backers so soon after Abacha's gulag, REALLY have had the stomach to be thinking of a second-term of presidency. I strongly believe that he felt that what needed to be done by him for the country could be done in one term and he would clear out for those more ambitious in politics than himself. I do not believe that THEN he had much stomach for re-election politics.

But that was then and this is now. President Obasanjo, seeing the monumental task that he took upon himself, and smelling failure after just a one-term presidency, may now be re-considering his options, and hoping to tear up whatever informal gentleman's agreement that he had back then - "for the sake of the nation that still needs him at a time like this." As a compromise, I also believe that he is negotiating a new agreement to extend his term by at most two years - hence the move to have forced through a constitutional amendment, to have a five-year or six-year one-term provision made retroactive to when this present administration started. Strange - but stranger things have happened before in Nigeria!

It is being re-packaged as a device to avoid civilian re-election traumas that we had in 1964/65 (leading to the coup in 1966) and 1983 (leading to Buhari's coup in December 1983 that toppled Shagari). That would be merely postponing the evil day. The fact of the matter is that it was not just the RE-ELECTION of incumbent persons that was the problem, but the RE-ELECTION of incumbent parties. Without electoral reform, and with the existence of a wide scope for rigging, that problem will not go away with one-term presidencies or governorships.

Stay tuned for further interesting developments.

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