I am a member of no political party in Nigeria, but my strong sympathies
are with the Alliance for Democracy (AD).  The permanent split of AD at
its convention on November 1 comes as no particular surprise, and merely
completes the new arithmetic (or is it differential calculus?) of
multiparty maneuverings in Nigeria. In this short piece, I read the tea
leaves and make some projections.

The Alliance for Democracy (AD)
-------------------------------

On November 1, this party had two conventions, with two different sets of
new officers as follows:

                         Adebayo-Led  NCC           Falae-led Convention
                         (approved by INEC)         (not approved by INEC)
                         'Abdulkadir Faction"      "Mamman Faction"

1. Nat. Chairman         Alhaji A. A. Abdulkadir    Amb. Y. Mamman (NW)
2. Dep. Nat. Chairman    Chief Mike Koleoso  (SW)   Chief Ayo Adebanjo(SW)
3. Vice Nat. Chairman    Alh. A. Alakija (NC)       Alhaji Salisu Musa(NC)
                         Mr. Benson Atanga (NE)     Alh. G. B. Ahmed(NE)
                         Alh. Tudum Wada (NW)       Comrade Adamu Song(NW)
                         Chief P. Iloegbulam (SE)   Chuba Cel. Egolum (SE)
                         Charles Eno (SS)           -
                         Sen. Chief A. Fasanmi (SW) Mr. Niyi Afuye (SW)
4. National Secretary    Dr. Chudi Nwike (SE)       Chief Okwu Maxi (SE)
5. Dep. National Sec.    Dr. Femi Babalola           -
6. Asst.National Sec.    Noah Adeyemi (NC)           -
                         Alhassan Sultan (NE)        -
                         Umar Farouk (Kaduna, NW)    -
                         Hon. F. Ogenechi (SE)      Rev. O. C. Obioha (SE)
                         Dr. Ken I. Mordi (SS)       -
                         Rev. Tunji Adebiyi (SW)    Mr. T. Ajasin (SW)
7. National Treasurer    Dr. Stella Dorgu (SS)      Mr. Mike Baah (SS)
8. Dep. Nat. Treasurer   Mr. Lafiu Sabu              -
9. Nat. Financial Sec.   Mr. Yunana Shibkau (NW)     -
10. Dep. Nat. Fin. Sec.  Alh. Samaila Hassan Yusuf  Alh. I. A. Jimoh (NC)
11. Nat. Pub. Sec.       Chief Rafiu Jafojo         Bar. Supo Sonibare(SW)
12. Dep. N/Public Sec.   Rev.(Dr.) M. Abubakar(FCT) Mr. Jimmy Imoh (SE)
13. Nat. Leg. Adv.       Henry Dickson              Mr. S. Asemota (SS)
14. Dep. Nat. Leg. Adv.  Alh. Mohammed B. Umar       -
15. Nat. Welf. Off.      Chief Segun Adegoke        Chief M. Odurinde (NC)
16. Dep. Nat. Welf. Off. Hajia Hassana Sajo          -
17. Ex-Off. Mem.         Mr. O.  Obisesan (NC)       -
                         Alh. M. Kwairanga (NE)      -
                         Alh. Yerima Damburam (NW)   -
                         Mazi Chidinma Okoro (SE)    -
                         Chief Tony Amadi (SS)       -
                         Alhaji Kola Oseni (SW)     Alhaji Yomi Alliyu(SW)

The above list of officers appears to be reasonably
federally-characterized, with posts inflation to satisfy the troops, one
cannot fail to observe. So why all the calumny against AD, I wonder?
Calling a good dog a bad name just to hang it, ehn?

Anyway, the approval of the Adebayo-led convention by INEC came with the
most blatantly partisan statements that can by made by Shehu Musa, the
acting Chairman of INEC, who commended my Governor Adebayo for:

    "....................................organising a successful national
    convention...[To] The newly elected chairman of AD and all executive
    members, we in INEC feel very happy today that we have come to the end
    of a very long journey. We had expected the convention to be conducted
    in July, but this is November. Nevertheless, it is better to be late
    than never. We are grateful to Almighty God that detractors of AD did
    not succeed in destroying Alliance for Democracy...Today, the position
    of INEC about making sure that the crisis in AD is solved
    constitutionally, the election conducted by the convention committee
    has vindicated us (INEC)....We (INEC) wish AD the best of luck. We
    want the whole country to know that the National Convention Committee
    duly informed the INEC about its agenda on congresses held at ward,
    local government and the national level. All our officials were
    involved in the process. We are not only supervising the root, but we
    have also supervised the foundation and the building itself".".
           - The Guardian, Friday November 3, 2000

All that is left is for former Census Chief Alhaji Shehu Musa, who has a
knack to be at the right place at the right time when (controversial)
counting is to be done, to be given an AD party card.

Well, the party is now split into the Afenifere-AD (AD-1), led by
politician Falae, and the Non-Afenifere-AD (AD-2), led by politician Ige,
and present Justice Minister and Attorney-General. To my mind, the remote
cause of the split is udoubtedly the selection of Falae over Ige as
presidential candidate for AD (and ultimately of the APP/AD coalition back
in February 1999), from which shock Ige still has not recovered. The
nation would probably have not recovered either if Ige it was who had been
beaten by Obasanjo in national elections.  We thank God for that, in a
perverse way.

The immediate cause? A need by Obasanjo to secure, with Ige's assistance,
a firm party base in Yorubaland, with AD-2 being the vanguard and the
heart of a new national party politics re-arrangement. While Adesanya-led
Afenifere will remain the "Baba Lehin Ogba" (the supportive Grandfather)
of AD-1, the newly constituted and Alayande-Thompson-led,
all-comers-are-welcome Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE), hurriedly
inaugurated before the November 1 convention, with Diya, Arikesola and
Adedibu inscrutably allowed to play such prominent roles in their opening
volley, would be that of AD-2.

Despite denials, the proverbial Jacob posing as if his is the hand of Esau
is of course President Obasanjo, who has taken advantage of his being
Yoruba to further muddle historical loyalties in Yorubaland, and attempt
to weaken resolves such as the Sovereign National Conference,
restructuring and autonomy under a True Federalism and the like in that
political zone, and to smash any vestiges of Awo-puritanism. He will not
succeed in that dubious venture - wallahi tallahi! [my slips are showing,
I know] - but he sure will try. Hopefully, we will not all be consumed in
the process.

The senatorial spread (2 senators for AD-1 and 17 for AD-2) and
gubernatorial spread between AD-1 (Ogun's Osoba and Ondo's Adefarati)  and
AD-2 (Oyo's Adesina, Osun's (shaky) Akande, my Ekiti's Adebayo and Lagos's
Tinubu)  is surprising only in one instance: Tinubu. His bait?  The draw
may be more than the power of Obasanjo's incumbency - but enough said.
Tinubu's historical vulnerability makes his choice of new bedfellows very
unwise indeed, friend to friend.

So what are the prospects for the Alliance for Democracy come 2003?  From
the above analysis, by that time, three sub-parties will have emerged:

       AD2003-1  - Original AD
       AD2003-2  - Obasanjo's AD
       AD2003-3  - Non-original, Non-Obasanjo, Disenchanted Peoples AD

So let us keep watching.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
----------------------------------

This party in power has the distinction of also being its own opposition
party - and a powerful opposition party at that!  The ever-increasing
bitter tussles between the Executive and the Legislature amply bear that
out.

So what are the issues here with the PDP?  Fairly complex, yet fairly
simple at the same time.  There are several extant factions at the initial
stages:

   (i)  The PDM faction of Yar'Adua - to which Obasanjo/Atiku belong;
  (ii)  The NPN faction (with Awoniyi and Ekwueme as prominent members);
 (iii)  The Military faction - in which past military actions were to
        be protected in a new civilian dispensation.
  (iv)  The Power-seekers faction, who, looking at the all the above
        calculations, felt that PDP was the party to be in if they
        were to drink from the national treasure.

There are quite a few people in PDP, who shall remain nameless, who belong
to ALL the factions above - the proverbial opportunists!

However, all of these factions have been blindsided by (i)  the unexpected
entrance of the political Sharia, coupled with (ii) the stinginess and
dictatorial obduracy of Obasanjo (some of which accounts for his running
battle with the legislature) and (iii)  his resolve not to be UNFAIR and
not to UNNECESSARILY punish his Yoruba people for not voting massively for
him in his presidential elections.

So, I believe that there are four political PDP sub-parties that will
emerge on the road to Year 2003:

   PDP2003-1:  The PDM PDP
   PDP2003-2:  The Sharia PDP
   PDP2003-3:  The Economically and Socially Marginalized Peoples PDP
   PDP2003-4:  The Power-Seeking Peoples PDP

The All Peoples Party (APP)
---------------------------

This is the strangest party of the three, and describing it as a party is
really an overstatement.  Run essentially by three people (Olusola Saraki,
Yusuf Ali and Umaru Shinkafi (more silently)), it is kept constantly in
the news by the voluble duo of (contested) Chairman Yusuf Ali, Publicity
and National Secretary Chief George Moghalu who are constantly asking
Obasanjo to resign - or else!  Or else what, one might ask?

Presenting a front more united that it really is, the APP has also been
blindsided by Sharia, and I see two subparties emerging in 2003:

    APP2003-1:  The Sharia APP
    APP2003-2:  The Non-Sharia APP

What will the  Ashes of AD, PDP and APP be like?
-----------------------------------------------

Overall, the current messy party situation was a result of a rushed
transition programme which threw up strange bedfellows as the mad rush to
ensure that Obasanjo emerged as the presidential candidate by all means
necessary was being initiated, and a counter-rush to ensure that Western
Nigeria (perjoratively referred to as the South-West during the Abacha
period, and unwittingly being adopted even by the Yoruba) was not
railroaded in the process.

So what re-alignment of forces should we expect for Year 2003, what new
parties, and how will they be constituted from the above sub-parties? They
are as follows, from my tea leaves:

   NewParty2003-1  = AD2003-1

   NewParty2003-2  = AD2003-2  +  PDP2003-1 + PDP2003-4 + APP2003-2

   NewParty2003-3  = PDP2003-2 +  APP2003-1

   NewParty2003-4  = AD2003-3  +  PDP2003-3

Note that whether Obasanjo and Atiku Abubakar will be in the same NewParty
remains unclear, because a lot of water - and hopefully not blood - will
still pass under the bridge between now and 2003. Furthermore, there might
be an initial attempt to re-align along the same present three-party
lines, but uproar from the disenchanted and marginalized, as well as
jockeying for advantage by the traditional party chieftains, will cause
INEC to relax its rules on party formation, and will lead to formation of
more parties such as the fourth one, NewParty2003-4. However, at least
three additional generically-identified parties should and WILL form if
they are smart:

   NewParty2003-5  = Ethnic Peoples Parties, because they do not figure
                     strongly in any of the above parties.  Examples
                     could surely be the Igbo PP, the Yoruba PP,
                     the Ijaw PP.

   NewParty2003-6  = The Youthful Peoples Parties, because, quite frankly
                     many people of "our" younger generation are tired
                     of the shenanigans of these old men fighting old
                     battles and backstabbing each other and
                     marginalizing "us".

   NewParty2003-7  = Party of Independents, who just want no party
                     affiliation, and want to be voted for on their
                     own recognizance.

Thus I see a total of nine, possibly ten, political parties in Year 2003
and an option for Independent candidacy emerging.

One can only hope that two, possibly three, of these parties will be based
PURELY on IDEOLOGY, and nothing else.

But will 2003 ever come ?
-------------------------

Calendar-wise, it might come - if Jesus Christ does not return before
then.  May He come quick!  However, on this side of eternity, as far as
politics is concerned in Nigeria, it is the million-dollar question.

To answer it, first, a bit of sadness.  18 months into this "nascent
democracy", little or nothing has happened to improve the lot of
Nigerians.  While impeachments, "contractocracy", fist-fights and
bribe-cash display occur in the Legislature, world-wide travels, executive
interference in the legislature, bannings of freely associated people and
a spectacular public caning occur from the presidency. NEPA is still
erratic, personal security of life, limb and liberty is still
non-existent, jobs remain a mirage, three-meals-a-day a luxury for most.
The people are "shuffering" but certainly not "shmiling."

Yet we talk about some elites jockeying and calculating for raw power in
Year 2003.

Yet we will have to jump over the hurdle of the 2002 census - which will
certainly result into blood on the table if not properly handled.  Then
the election registration process, party registration process, conventions
and choice of candidates will result in BITTER battles, the likes of which
that country have never seen, if clear electoral reforms to prevent
rigging are not put in place between now and then.  Mind you, the current
party chieftains are experts at rigging, and therefore know what kinds of
tricks they each played to get to where they are now, and will probably
want to prevent others from taking the same advantage of them now that
they are re-aligned in different camps.

So will we survive the ensuing cataclysm?  I am not so sure - unless there
is a Sovereign National Conference before then.

But let us work and pray.

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Appendix:

See:

http://www.vanguardngr.com/30102000/fc105110.htm   - A general report
http://www.vanguardngr.com/30102000/fc205110.htm   - Mamman Yusuf
http://www.vanguardngr.com/30102000/fc305110.htm   - Gov. Niyi Adebayo
http://www.vanguardngr.com/30102000/fc605110.htm   - Bola Ige
http://www.vanguardngr.com/30102000/fc705110.htm   -  Bola Tinubu

for some interesting reactions to the AD convention.

On plans for electoral reform, see:

http://www.vanguardngr.com/30102000/mg405110.htm   - Abel Guobadia

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