In 1935, when Nigeria was just only 21 years old as a forcefully amalgamated contraption of Lord (Colonel) Lugard (rtd.), a nuclear physicist, Dr. Erwin Schröedinger, was busy championing strange concepts in quantum physics. The novelty of his ideas conflicted very much with established principles of classical physics. To his peers, the gospel according to Dr. Schröedinger was tantamount to sheer blasphemy. Central to his views is the idea that unobserved phenomena are radically different from observed ones. Essentially, Schröedinger was saying that, in the quantum world, nothing is real. You cannot know anything about something, if you are not looking at it. Nothing has happened to it until you observe it. In the quantum universe, what you see is what you get: WYSIWYG. … Heavy! Weird! Crazy!

The strangeness of quantum physics lies in the pattern of discovery that characterised many of its major findings. Typically, a lucky guess, based on shaky arguments and absurd ad-hoc assumptions, gives rise to a formula that, somehow, turns out to be very correct, even though at first, nobody saw why on earth it should be so. … Crazy! Weird! Hairy!

The "Nigerian factor" is a national cliché, whose meaning makes sense probably only to Nigerians. The "Nigerian factor" is analogous to the concept of the "hidden variable" in quantum physics. It defies conventional wisdom. The layers of complexity, the sense of things being beyond our control, or out of control, are but signals of our failure to understand a deeper reality of organisational life generally, and the Nigerian condition in particular.

Now then, what exactly is this thing that we somewhat intuitively refer to as the "Nigerian factor"? Accepted that the term is universally unique, but what is, and why, the "Nigerian factor"?

For the information of those who have made it their habit, or hobby, or duty to study Nigerians, the first-level construal of that rather nebulous but unique neologism evokes benign connotations of uncertainty, paradox, arbitrariness, selective logic, possible breeches of expectations, twists of tales, and a generally reverse-engineered reality. The problem of this article is to attempt to sharpen our grasp of the "Nigerian factor" by the systematic deconstruction of its key elements, for the ultimate practical benefit of Nigeria and Nigerians, especially before the Presidential elections.

A very curious scenario is playing itself out in Nigeria, little by little, slowly and steadily. Indeed, it was very tempting, while the official sycophants were really jittery last week, to agree with Abuja’s "Office of Strategic Image Laundry" that comparisons between General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo and General Sani Abacha were indeed unfair. But then, the Presidency has been engaged in taking Nigerians for a jolly ride, for some time now. The Nigerian media usually plays right along, but now the foreign press is beginning to complain about inducements and bribes that originate from the very embodiment of a so-called national anti-corruption crusade, the Nigerian Presidency. For the benefit and enlightenment of any visiting Martian who may have strayed to this side of the Milky Way by chance, a few obligatory briefs will now follow:

With the benefit of perfect hindsight and hard data, it is now very clear that there are certain dominant factors that generally influence Nigerians, and the conventional wisdom of their rulers in particular. Two of such factors are the quality and duration of national leadership at any point in the country’s existence since independence. Other factors include:

This piece was, in part, inspired by the works of two distinguished writers, separated in time by about 135 years: They are, Michael Bakunin ⁽¹⁾, and Breyten Breytenbach ⁽²⁾. Though the exact subject of their respective works were far removed from Nigeria, the mind-blowing synchronicity of the contextual bearings of both writers with events in Nigeria today, almost to a point of perfect déjà vu, was such that we exercised the liberty to replicate, and sometimes, deliberately fused portions of their writings, almost verbatim, with ours.

By May 29, 2003, the Nigerian nation would have gone through 43 years, precisely 15,580 days, of post-independence experience, in which eleven (11) Nigerians would have had the historic privilege and responsibility of presiding over the affairs of Nigerians as Heads of State/Government. In other words, by May 29, 2003, the arithmetic mean tenure of Nigerian rulers (civilian and military) would be 1,416 days (i.e. 15,580 divided by 11).

Of those eleven Nigerians that have ruled Nigeria so far, only six (6) would have ruled Nigeria for more than 1,416 days by May 29, 2003. They are General (Dr.) Yakubu Gowon (3,287 days), General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (2,922 days), General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo (2,787 days), Alhaji (Sir) Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (1,932 days), General Sani Abacha (1,664 days), and lastly, Alhaji Shehu Shagari (1,552 days), in descending order of length of tenure. Of those six (6) above average-lasting Heads of State of Nigeria, two were civilian politicians (Tafawa Balewa and Shehu Shagari), four are/were military politicians, in and out of active service (Yakubu Gowon, Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida, and Sani Abacha), two are dead, two have apparently retired from active partisan politics, and two are not only still involved in active power politics, but are playing a choreographed hide-and -seek about their possible roles in the lives of Nigerians beyond May 29, 2003.

By May 29, 2003, of all the past Heads of State/Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the cumulative tenures of Alhaji (Sir) Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, General (Dr.) Yakubu Gowon, General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo, General Sani Abacha, and General Ibrahim Babangida would amount to 12,592 days, which is equivalent to about 81% of the total duration of Nigeria’s post-independence reality. Therefore, on the balance of statistical probability, the most significant living influencers of the collective self-image of Nigerians are General (Dr.) Yakubu Gowon, General Ibrahim Babangida, and General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo. In other words, for good or for bad, those four (4) soldiers, are the principal behavioural triggers of contemporary Nigerian reality. In fact, they constitute the root cause of the Nigerian condition, the so-called "Nigerian Factor" .

Very much in line with past observations on the dynamics of power, ⁽¹⁾ the Nigerian state is nothing else but domination and exploitation, regularised and systemised. Let us begin a mind experiment by conceptualising the consequence of government by a few persons that are very intelligent, and are as devoted as can be, in an hypothetical nation, founded on a free franchise and an equitable social contract between the rulers and the ruled. Let us again hypothesize that the government is confined only to the very best of its citizens. Initially, these citizens are privileged not by right, but by merit. The people elected them because they are the wisest, most devoted, intelligent, and courageous. Taken from the mass of the citizens, who are regarded as equal, they do not yet constitute a clique, but a group of men privileged only by office and for that reason, singled out for election by the people. Their number is necessarily very small, for at all times worldwide, as experience teaches us, the number of men endowed with such attributes, so extraordinary that they automatically command the absolute respect of a nation, is very small. Therefore, at the risk of making a bad choice, the people will always be obliged to choose their rulers from amongst them: The "Chosen Few".

At this juncture, society is divided into two categories, of which one, composed of the substantial majority of the citizens, submits sheepishly to the government of its elected leaders, the other, formed of a small number of their privileged compatriots, recognised and accepted as such by their subjects, and charged by them to provide them good governance. Depending on popular vote, they are at first distinguished from the mass of their citizens only by the very qualities that recommended them to their leadership position and are unquestionably, the most devoted and useful of all. They do not yet assume to themselves any privileges, or any special rights, except those of exercising the special functions with which they have been charged, provided the people wish it so. By their manner of life, by the conditions and means of their existence, they do not separate themselves in any way from all the others, so that a perfect equality continues to reign between the leader and the led. But really, can the leader and the led be equals for too long? Can this utopia be maintained for long enough? We assert that it simply cannot.

There is nothing more dangerous for man's personal morality than the habit of command. The best man, the most intelligent, unbiased, charitable, and untainted, will unfailingly be spoiled by power. Two sentiments inherent in power never fail to produce this demoralisation; they are: (1) contempt for the masses and (2) the over-estimation of one's own merits. Eventually, our archetypal perfect leader starts thinking to himself, "Hey! My subjects recognise their inability to govern themselves. They have accepted me as their master. By that very act, they have openly declared their inferiority and my superiority. Among this crowd of people, with hardly any equals of myself, I can direct the affairs of this country all alone. The people have need of me. They cannot do without my services, while I, on the contrary, can get along all right by myself. They, therefore, must obey me in their own interest. For condescending to rule them, I am actually doing them a favour.".

Some how, from time to time, understandably, such satanic verses must have flashed through the minds of the top three longest-ruling Heads of State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, General Gowon, General Babangida, and General Obasanjo, given their habit of centralised command and control.

This is the mindset of the archetypal Nigerian leader:

Being human, he can hardly know up to 12,000 Nigerians genuinely and personally, that is to say, less than 0.01% of the imagined, and possibly inflated, population of the country (Nigeria) he rules. And so, there is no reason why he should listen seriously to what 99.99% of his subjects may have to say. Nobody expects him to have the time to pay attention to views that do not, correspond to his own. As a soldier, he calibrated the expectations of Nigerians down to size, way down to the lowest imaginable limit of their perception of their self worth: a kind of institutionalised advanced nihilism. In fact, naturally, the typical Nigerian leader does not listen to anybody who does not say what he wishes to hear, as he believes himself to have been singularised by virtue of either having suffered (at the war front or in jail), or having been entrusted with a special mission from God. Occasionally, Nigerian rulers bore their subjects (almost to death) with tales of the sacrifices they made for Nigeria, when they fought a transparently stupid civil war that they engineered in the first place, some 35 years ago, when over 80% of all living Nigerians, the under 35s, were not even yet born! ⁽⁴⁾ Political Alzheimer!

An unabashed manifestation of the Messiah complex in a once seemingly "disinterested", and "unwilling" military Vice President in the mid-1970s, later a reluctant Head of State, later a supposedly wrongly accused victim of phantom coup plotting who was jailed, later pardoned and released, and now born-again military politician, stirs 65 years young General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo to demonstrate graphically, the vast difference between Dr. Nelson Mandela and himself: Nelson Mandela was past his 80^th birthday when he retired from active partisan politics. Olusegun Obasanjo has 15 years more. Nelson Mandela was jailed by Whites. Obasnjo was jailed by Blacks. Nelson Mandela was imprisoned on an island in South Africa, below the Equator. Obasanjo was jailed on mainland Nigeria, above the Equator. Nelson Mandela was allowed to read the Economist magazine while in prison. General Obasanjo was only allowed to read the Holy Bible while in jail. Mandela did not rule South Africa before he went to jail. Obasanjo ruled Nigeria before he was imprisoned. Nelson Mandela was a bloody civilian all his life. Obasanjo is a Nigeria-Biafra War veteran commander, and of course, a Grand Commander of the Federal Republic. Nelson Madela has only one wife. Chief (General) Olusegun Obasanjo has many. Ingenious! Very brilliant! Case closed!

The Abuja "Office of Strategic Image Laundry" concludes that, in the overall interest of Nigerians, Obasanjo should be given the opportunity, once more, to "Mugaberise", if possible, beyond 2007 AD, for the ultimate good of Nigeria, and to the everlasting Glory of God! To add affront upon gripe, General Olusegun Obasanjo warns Nigerians of the very dire consequenses of not returning him to rule them yet again ,after his current tenure. How paternalistic. How conniving and insensitive. What arrant tripe. What brazen impunity. Even with deafening groans of disillussionment continuously expressed by Nigerians over the past three years of fumbling quasi-diarchy, Chief (General) Mathew Obasanjo has the loquacity and temerity to reduce Nigeria to a very ripe Banana Republic by even verbalising such supremely demonic brain wave. What a pity. Poor Nigerians, their brutalisation never seems to grow any less, all because of the "Nigerian Factor" that resides deep inside of our reluctant Messiah.

We apologise very profusely if our tangential allusions to the Messiah complex hurts. It is because of the reverberations from the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt regions of Nigeria, where several innocent Nigerians have been, and continue to be the victims of an "appropriate punishment", probably directed by Jehovah All Mighty, through the Commander-in-Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces. Nevertheless, how else is one to attempt describing the comportment of Nigerian soldiers, especially given the unrepentant posture of their Commander-in-Chief who is probably convinced of the divine immunity granted him by virtue of his privileged celestial connections? Unfortunately we are human. We are appalled and weighed down by the dreadfulness of what General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd.) has done, is doing, and may do by 29 May 2003, on eventual completion of 2,787 cumulative days of his life, presiding over Nigerians.

Our use of the phrase, "Messiah complex", does not come lightly. We are conscious of the need to keep our expressions devoid of cheap and/or provocative sentiments that may cancel out objective grasp of the complexity of the observed phenomena, by a flurry of rage, indignation or sensationalism. Certainly, Apartheid was not Nazism. Neither is Zionism, tribalism. Moreover, the undisguised intimidation displayed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the helpless people of the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt regions should not be equated with tribalism, Zionism, Apartheid, or Nazism. Each one of these processes and political systems is obnoxious enough to merit a comprehensive description of its own embodiment.

But then, there are correspondences and distinctions: This intransigence insists that lethally armed marauding soldiers of the Nigerian Army, under Obasanjo’s specific orders, were actually victims! General Obasanjo predicates his justification of their awful atrocities on a laughable "constitutional" right to self-defence, shamelessly manipulating perceptions with executive lies. The attendant disillusionment in the collective spirit of Nigerians, the disdain shown to certain segments of Nigeria, and indeed, Obasanjo’s conceited refusal to express just a little remorse to his very distressed and disenchanted subjects in Bayelsa, Benue, Delta and Rivers States, indeed qualify him for "2003".After all, he can do without their votes.. After all we are in the 3^rd World. After all this is Nigeria, the land of the "Nigerian Factor". Come to think of it, maybe, INEC would ensure success, independently.

It is all too familiar. The inherent assumptions informing such actions are vulgar. As was the case in Germany, South African, and Israel, the preferred methods by which General (Chief) Segun Obasanjo hopes to subjugate the enemy, consist of brute force, bloodshed, loss of lives, moaning, and disgrace. He may think he can get away with this, as long as he plays up to his enlightened self-interest, and the supposed vital interests of his mentors, wherever they may be. How cynical. How historically myopic.

It has been blatantly averred, repeatedly, that any criticism of Obasanjo’s style of governance is an expression of treason against the Nigerian state. With that assertion, the argument is supposed to be closed and sealed. General (Chief) Olu Obasanjo (GCFR; pss; fss) consistently deploys this craft of very crude blackmail openly, as if he were a dirty finger, lost in heavenly estcasy, caressing the erogenous zones of a swooning Nigerian public opinion to collective national orgasm, taking the rest of the world for complete idiots. Surely, not every Nigerian agrees that the highest good is the blind acceptance of the Federal Government’s inordinate greed for crude oil, or that Nigerians should adhere to the inevitability of "Federal Might" in their country, and the Niger Delta region in particular.

Of course, it is unacceptable to disqualify the grounds for debate in a democratic dispensation. No amount of suffering, be it of General Philip Effiong (rtd), Chief Gani Fawehinmi, Ms. Chris Anyanwu, Professor Tam David-West, Major Hamza Al-Mustapha, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, or His Excellency, General (Chief) Olusegun Mathew Aremu Obasanjo (rtd), can confer immunity from criticism. Paradoxically and quite unfortunately, no amount of persecution seems to immunise human beings against perpetrating the very same havoc of which they were once victims. No amount of indulgence in some kind of monotonous holy monologue with God All Mighty can ignore the pillage carried out by an invading occupying army, or for that matter, the cold-blooded massacres of innocents ordered by their God-chosen Commander-in-Chief, in the name of "self-defence". No reference to some ostensibly sacrosanct "national interest", "nascent democracy", or "law and order" can obscure the fact that the Niger Delta is a militarised colony, whose land and natural resources are shamelessly stolen from their owners (thanks to Obasanjo’s Land Use Decree of 1978), festering in their collective consciousness, an intention to frustrate and invalidate any possibility of self-assertion. There can be no way to peace through the annihilation of dissent, just as there is no glory in cheating.

Any first time visitor to the Niger Delta can reasonably equate the region with bantustans as was reminiscent of the so-called "African Townships", ghettos and controlled camps of misery in Apartheid South Africa. There are many self-serving, power-hungry individuals, fanatics with their spirits obfuscated by a false sense of divine mission, alternatively, using that as a pretext. One finds this "national interest" blackmail unreservedly foul. Why should we be subjected to this special pleading, or look the other way whenever the Nigerian state commits crimes against humanity? General Obasanjo must be counselled that whatever past injustices he thinks he may have suffered from General Sani Abacha cannot justify or excuse his present repressive actions. A viable Nigeria cannot be built on the intimidation of some people who have a rightful claim to their destiny. Might is definitely not right. In the end, if extreme care is not taken, his immoral, shortsighted, and stupid policies can further weaken Nigeria’s legitimacy as a nation. There is more to Nigeria beyond an insatiable avarice for crude oil.

As a cold-blooded and vindictive agent provocateur, General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo stands out among his peers. In his tenacious but ill-considered attempts to subvert equitable petroleum resources control and revenue allocation, predicated on the total subjugation of the entity known today as the Niger Delta, Obasanjo is bringing instability to the region. This may probably have been planned. We may never know. However, it remains to be seen whether the belated grumbling of his mentors will dilute Obasanjo’s campaign of premeditated terror and spiteful destruction, or whether it is just a façade behind which to better align himself with the on-going "global war against terrorism", the selective domination of strategic natural resources, and a patently aberrant central control of petroleum resources in Nigeria, including the nurturing of a comic "nascent democracy".

How dreadfully sad the villages in the Niger Delta are, reminding one of the lifeless and apathetic dwellings of the Amazon Jungle, or even the refugee camps of Biafra and Palestine. A few moments spent in any village, town, or city in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria, leaves one with very strong but conflicting impressions on how wretched the Niger Delta is. How inextricably linked the people of the Niger Delta region are with their exploiters: Mangrove swamps everywhere. Gas flares here and there. A topography of the all too familiar face of criminally cold underdevelopment in the midst of abundance. The relatively serene and beautiful ambience of Abuja. The attempts to make Abuja look like heaven in Nigeria, despite the natural inhospitality of the land, except for its high ambient temperatures and rocks here and there. The bright lights from the oil installations, contrasted with the despoiled, desolate and dilapidated habitations of the villagers of the Niger Delta. The high-rise walls around the palatial residential areas of Maitama, Asokoro, Garki, and Ministers’ Hill, including the five-star hotels, golf courses, and diplomatic missions in Abuja, and then the rubble of destroyed homes in Bile, Choba, Gbeji, Katsina Ala, Kula, Kyado, Nembe, Odi , Sankera, Soku, Tse-Adoor, Vaase, Warri, and Zaki-Biam now looking more like "Ground Zero". The ugliness of the ubiquitous thatched mud houses everywhere in the Middle Belt and Niger Delta regions. The inanity of the presence of an army of occupation, with their nastiness at checkpoints, having little to do with security and everything with the primitive urge to humiliate, frustrate, harass and drive to insane rage a conquered people. The ruthless impunity with which Nigerian soldiers destroy the lives of Nigerians wherever they are deployed, particularly the citizens of Bayelsa, Benue, Delta, and Rivers States.

A supposedly "democratically elected" Commander-in-Chief and President of Nigeria, lying to his subjects, justifying the gruesome human rights abuses and crimes against humanity inflicted by his troops. The so-called " restive youths of the Niger Delta" defiantly look at their rulers straight in the eye, seemingly rebellious, but probably severely desensitized by the persistent trauma induced by hovering helicopter gun ships, World War II armoured cars, and patrol boats, provided as "military assistance" by the champion of "democracy, good governance, freedom, and human rights", the government of the US of A, and trigger-happy Nigerians in uniform, shooting at everything that moves, including their fellow Nigerians.

General Olusegun Obasanjo has not broken the spirit of the people of the Niger Delta. To the contrary, they are now more resolute than ever. It does not matter anymore how much he bullies them. They saw the renewed onslaught coming. They knew he was probably in agreement with his local and international mentors. They also know that, since General (Chief) Obasanjo made them stronger, he must strike harder because he is caught in a enigma of his own making. Like President George Bush in his crusade against the infidels and the disobedient, President General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo has to accelerate his disregard for world opinion, and flaunt common sense even more.

The inhabitants of the Niger Delta know that nothing they can do will appease His Excellency, General (Chief) Obasanjo, former GOC 3^rd Marine Commando Division of the Nigerian Army, former Federal commissioner of Works, when Julius Berger was just a fresher in the Nigerian roads and fly-over construction business, when kickbacks and executive corruption were not yet overt in Nigeria, former Chief of Staff, Supreme Military Council, two-times Head of State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, God-sent from General Sani Abacha’s jail, directly to Aso Rock for the benefit of Nigerian. Indeed, Nigerians fear that General (Chief) Olusegun Aremu Mathew Obasanjo (GCFR, pss; fss) may even compound these crimes against humanity which his soldiers are perpetrating at present. That he may shatter their hopes for peace, equity, justice ,and the effective control of their resources, indeed, their destiny. They also fear that General (Chief) Olusegun Aremu Mathew Obasanjo may inadvertently bring forth the devil in their fellow Nigerians living in the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt regions. Nigerians know these self-evident facts. They watch and pray very hard to God All Mighty that General Obasanjo’s actions do not profoundly fragment and debilitate Nigeria irreversibly before or after May 29, 2003.

But then, General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo does not care, does he? If so, let it be made abundantly known to whoever cares to listen: There will be no dire consequences if General (Chief) Obasanjo does not rule Nigeria (for the third time in his life) after May 29, 2003. On the contrary, Nigerians may, for once, breathe an air of peace, unity, progress and have substantial faith, once more, in their country.

The pity and the horror of one man’s agonising influence in the lives of a people who placed so much hope, trust, and faith in Obasanjo, despite all odds, despite his relative disadvantage of even being seen to be fraternising intimately with a despised immediate past Nigerian despot, shortly after his release from prison, despite the glaring handicap of his lack of real political clout even in his village, only for Nigerians to be visited with superlative disappointment. Nigerians should have known better that there is nothing more dangerous for man's personal ego than the habit of centralised command and control. That even the best human being will, in the long run, be spoiled by power..

Most likely, our beloved made-in-Nigeria Messiah is thinking aloud to himself, "Yé-è-è kpàrikpàtà! I think you know say all those my boy-boy them know say them no go fit rule Nigeria by themself. Them done kuku take me as their Ògá pátápátá. So therefore, them done accept say I better pass them well-well. All this people wey you dey see so, no bagger among them reach my level. Na only me wey fit rule this them yèyé country for them. Nigerians, ùnà need me-ó, but me, sha, I no need ùnà. I fit stay yàfùn- yàfùn jé-jé by myself. And so, therefore, ùnà must to obey me if ùnà like ùnàself, know wetin good for ùnà. Ùnà know say I dey sorry ùnà sef. At any rate, me, I dey kámpé. In other words, na me, bikó!".

This is the pity and the dreadfulness of the manifestations of the "Nigerian factor" inherent in the recurrent political misadventures of a once unwilling military commander of an army of very trigger-happy commandos, later elder statesman, turned a reluctant Messianic partisan politician, and now a born-again discussant with heavenly beings, very reluctantly enthusiastic Presidential aspirant in the forth-coming elections in Nigeria, who only recently reluctantly made his 86^th trip overseas in 36 months, in hot pursuit of foreign investors that unyieldingly decline to risk their peace of mind and money battling with the uncertainties, paradoxes, arbitrariness, selective logic, possible breeches of expectations, twists of tales, and a generally reverse-engineered reality that they observe from a very comfortable distance. The "Nigerian factor" can only be condoned by Nigerians who alone appear to understand its various quirks. Nigerians are unique.

April  2002.