Run, Aremu run
By
IN 1992 President Bill Clinton rode into the American White House with over 65 percent support of Americans in his election.
There was high expectation from Americans about his administration. The economy was prostrate. Americans were losing their jobs in thousands by the day.
Unemployment was at its peak. It was little wonder that Americans abandoned the Gulf war hero President George Bush and pinned their hopes on the man from a village called "Hope" in Arkansas.
Six months after Bill Clinton’s election, the Newsweek in a national pull put his rating at over 75 percent. A year later his ratings had fallen almost below 50 percent.
The turning point had been reached. Americans were tired of Clinton’s regime. The expectations that heralded his regime were not met. Americans were in a hurry to see their expectations met. The economy was not growing as fast as they wanted. Clinton’s nominees were being rejected and criticized by the Senate.
Besides, Americans foreign policy was in shambles. American Marines were disgraced and killed in Somalia where sympathy assistance became a disaster for Americans.
Time Magazine wrote at that time that ‘the Clinton Administration does not seem to get anything right".
Two years after the ascension of Bill Clinton to office in a mid term election, Clinton lost majority in the House of Representatives and Senate. For the first time in 20 years the Republicans out numbered the Democrats in both houses.
Bob Dole, the Republican senate Majority Leader and the effervescent speaker of the Lower House of Congress took charge of American Congress to the consternation of the Democrats.
After this incident, the Democrats and Bill Clinton went back to the drawing board, put their house in order and went back to work for the American people. The result, a booming economy and an excellent foreign policy that met the expectation of the Americans.
Bill Clinton to the surprise of his destructors defeated Senator Bob Dole the man the Republicans pinned their hope of the White House on at the end of his four years term.
Today, I see a big similarity in what is happening to President Olusegun Aremu Obasanjo and what happened to Bill Clinton in his first two years in office as enumerated above.
Like Bill Clinton, Obasanjo’s election came at a time Nigerians were experiencing economic times. The economy is comatose. Infrastructures are non- existent. NEPA and NITEL are one shameful huge joke. There is division along ethnic and religious lines and the entire nation pinned their hope of economic and social survival on his government. In fact, expectations and hopes of Nigerians on Obasanjo is not only high but also electric. Just like the Americans of Bill Clinton, Nigerians are so much in a hurry for their expectations to be met that they are willing to believe that the government has failed, if the expectations are not met in just only 16 months of Obasanjo’s regime.
Like Clinton, Obasanjo enjoyed the mandate of over 65 percent of Nigerians and his approval rating was in excess of 75 percent after his first six months in office.
But today the bubble seems to have burst just like it happened to Bill Clinton. It is my ardent belief that if the leadership of PDP and President Obasanjo go back to the drawing board and put their house in order, they can still turn things around and the PDP led by Aremu can still win re-election like President Jefferson Bill Clinton of United States of America.
I believe that Obasanjo can still turn things round politically, get majority of Nigerians to love his government once again.
Three biggest challenges he has is to:
(i) Clear the issue of marginalisation that the East and the core North are crying over.
(ii) To put infrastructures of NEPA and NITEL (that is Electricity and Telephone) right as well as the economy and unemployment.
(iii) The President should unite his party around him.
If he achieves the three above, the road for his re-election will be as easy as that of Bill Clinton.
All the President needs do is to boldly let Nigerians know that the maginalisation cry of the East and North is a political hoax. He should let Nigerians know that the East has the powerful Minister for Transport with NPA, NMA, Nigerians Shippers Council, Nigerdock and Nigerian Railways under an Igboman. That the powerful Minister of Health with all teaching hospitals under him, Minister for Aviation in charge of FAAN and Nigerian Airways, ambassador to the United Nations and Senate President in their custody. This, cannot be a marginalised Igbo. If he lets the Igbo people know that his Political Adviser Professor ABC Nwosu and the powerful chairman of NDDC is under Igbo people, anybody talking about maginalisaton of Igbo people will merely be politicking.
If the president also lets the North know that apart from the Vice President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Deputy Senate President, the Minister of Agriculture, Environment, Finance, Communication and Defence are with them, they will know that they are not marginalised.
The only contentious issue is the security head of the Armed Forces. These are in the Central zones and in the South South. Only Police is in the Southwest.
In fact if the above truth is fully understand by Nigerians and if they known that the south West have been relieved of the Minister for Communication and Aviation for the Middle Belt and East respectively the North & East will know the truth, that the perceived marginalization has since been corrected.
The President needs to allocate more money to the quick completion of all NEPA projects. But more importantly the President needs to personally ensure that the independent power projects are encouraged and hurried to complete the power projects. Since the indefatigable Tony Anenieh is working very had to tar major roads, the President’s task will be lessened.
With the GSM Telephone auction being completed in January 2001, the communication problem of the country will be a by gone affair. With foreign investment coming into Nigeria as a result of Obasanjo acceptance and visit abroad the economy will improve and unemployment will reduce.
The PDP as a party needs to sit up. There is no reason why the party will allow its elected officers to criticize their President. The PDP Chairman and Publicity secretary should reply all major criticism of their President. If there is no conspiracy within the party against the President, they should reply all the criticism directed at the President.
The political atmosphere is very conducive for the president’s second term, because the South West will vote for him enmass this time around since they have no alternative. The South South will also support him once the NDDC is working properly to correct the injustice done to the oil producing areas in the past.
The Middle Belt that took majority of the military leadership position and other juicy appointment to correct the long maginalisation of the area will also support him.
With these three zones supporting the president, he only needs to convince a section of the core North especially North East and the East that they are not marginalised and he will pick up enough support there to come back.
One thing that is clear is that the North knows that there will hardly be any leader in the South that will be as liberal as Obasanjo for them. He allowed them have their Sharia. He is against Sovereign National Conference and major restructuring of the nation. He is a true Nigerian and leans more on the North on the above issues.
The North also knows that if they support another Southerner for the post of President after four years, the next president would like to complete his eight years thereby denying the North the presidency for 12 years. So they may as well allow Aremu to have another four years so that the presidency will come to them naturally by rotation.
Again, the South having been without the president for 36 out of 40 years of independence, they will never want to vote for a Northerner so soon. The south will want the post for a eight years, before power is rotated again to the North
There is no doubt also that the Vice President as a man with a lot of wisdom, knows that it will be better for him to support the president for a second term, so that he can have the support of the president and his people to step into shoes with ease.
The Vice President has shown himself as a loyal lieutenant of Obasanjo and the President will definitely reward him by backing him to succeed him after his eight years in office.
The President’s numerous visits to market Nigeria abroad is beginning to yield fruit. Foreign investors are now coming into Nigeria in large numbers. Those who will not want to do business with Nigeria before are now prepared to come here. The country has now been granted debt relief running into billions of dollars by the Paris Club. Major economic growth will definitely be recorded in Nigeria before the year 2003 when the President will be due for re-election.
The President can ignore the stance of Governor Orji Kalu because the issue of failure of NEPA and Telephone that he raised will be fully addressed by the President before he will run for a second term.
If the President desires a second term, he should not chicken out. Like Clinton, his image will improve dramatically as his programmes on electricity, telephones, roads and others that are of benefit to the common man will begin to materialise.