Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Of recent, some vocal pseudo-intellectual groups in Nigeria have cooked up a seemingly idiot-proof, and easily believable, but bogus political hypothesis, that the conduct of a free, fair, and acceptable election is a feat that has persistently eluded Nigeria’s civilian political elite, ever since the British colonial administration conducted Nigeria’s first ever general elections, held just before independence, some forty-six (46) years after Lord Fredrick Lugard amalgamated Nigeria. According to the palpably simplistic pseudo-logic of that half-baked hypothesis, it was because the general elections in Nigeria in 1965 and 1983 were rigged, that was why the Nigerian military intervened, and then presided over the sustained mismanagement of Nigeria’s fortunes, via twenty-nine (29) cumulative years of predatory autocracy, to the near-extinction of the country’s economy.

Therefore, according to the conventional wisdom of the faceless originators of that strange hypothesis, it is very crucial that Nigerians should get the 2003 general elections right, so that the Nigerian military would not be lured, once again, into overthrowing the ultimate winner of the forthcoming presidential elections, in the same manner that both Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu, General Obasanjo’s very good friend, and Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari, General Obasanjo’s "off-shoot", did, at midnight, Saturday, 15 January 1966, and at midnight Saturday, 31 December 1983, respectively.

Historically, the President of the First Republic was the Right Honourable Sir (Dr.) Nnamdi Azikiwe (LLM; KCBE; GCFR), and his Prime Minister was Sir (Alhaji) Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (OBE), while the President of the Second Republic was Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari (GCFR), and his Vice President was Dr. (Arc.) Alexander Ekwueme (GCON), who is now 70 years old. As we are all aware, Major Nzeogwu, in joint venture with Major Ifeajuna and others, subverted the First Republic, while Major General Buhari, with a little help from then Major General Babangida, then Brigadier Abacha, and others, subverted the Second Republic. Incidentally, if Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu were alive today, he would be 66 years old, just like OBJ. Today, both General Babangida and Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari are in their early-60s.

Alhaji Wada Nas is the leader of a recently registered party, called the Peoples’ Salvation Party (PSP). He is also a key member of the Mohammadu Buhari Presidential Campaign Organisation of the ANPP. He is a very close associate of Hajiya (Dr.) Mrs. Mariam Sani-Abacha, former First Lady of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and Life Matron of the Family Support Programme (FSP). Alhaji Wada Nas recently denied reports by some foreign media that Major General (Alhaji) Buhari’s presidential campaign is being funded with several billions of US dollars, EU euros, and UK pounds looted from the Nigerian treasury, allegedly stashed away by the family of General Sani Abacha (GCFR), on account of the very special intimate connections between Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari and General Sani Abacha.

Meanwhile, the PSP has adopted Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari as the consensus sole presidential candidate of the PSP. Alhaji Wada Nas insists that there is no conflict between his leadership of the PSP and his solid support for the presidential candidate of another political party, ANPP. Incidentally, and paradoxically, the Alliance for Democracy (AD), has literally and metaphorically adopted General (Chief) Obasanjo as their consensus sole presidential candidate for the 2003 general elections. One wonders what exactly the PDP gubernatorial aspirants in the uniquely exclusively pro-AD South West really hope to gain by deliberately contesting elections they know they would lose, since the incumbent AD governors have already "endorsed", and "adopted" General Obasanjo as their sole consensus presidential candidate, just like the incumbent PDP governors "endorsed", and "adopted" General Obasanjo, sequel to their "endorsement", and "adoption", in line with the Sir Anthony Anenih Theory of Electoral Fixtures and Self-Recycling for "continuity", and "consolidation" ad infinitum.

It is very interesting to note that the PSP is not an "election platform". The priority of the PSP is the political education of its target constituencies. In other words, the PSP is not yet interested in contesting elections, just like the AD is not yet interested in contesting the presidential elections. This is unique.

Here we have a political party that has taken a conscious effort to first lay the foundations of its ideological base by the political mobilisation, and enlightenment of its followers. This is quite unlike most political parties in Nigeria today which instantly materialise out of nothing, from nowhere, believe in nothing, and deliver nothing but patronage, patronage, and patronage.

By the way, what has stopped Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari from joining hands with the few acclaimed straight-forward elements in the Nigerian political space, people like Femi Falana, Olisa Agbakogba (SAN), Gani Fawehinmi (SAN), Balarabe Musa, Reverend Hassan Mathew Kukah, or Professor Wole Soyinka, so as to establish a solid foundation of genuine opposition to the prevailing climate of national dysfunction in Nigeria, if indeed his objective is to challenge General Obasanjo’s predatory autocracy? Of course, the answer is obvious: Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari is a rather strange bed fellow as far as democratic intercourse is concerned!

Moreover, General (Eze Gburugburu Ndiigbo) Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu (Ikemba Nnewi), former military Head of State, and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Biafra, now a presidential aspirant in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, under the platform of the APGA, is yet to apologise to non-Igbo former Eastern Nigerians particularly, and Nigerians generally, Ndiigbo inclusive, about the monumental suffering that his failed implementation of his vision of the sovereign state of Biafra has caused them over the past thirty-five (35) years. Since the ideals of Biafra failed under his leadership, General (Dim) Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu has to take responsibility for that failure. That is the path of honour.

It is on record that even the leadership of UNITA in Angola has tendered unreserved apologies for the social havoc and calamities that transpired during the Angolan civil war, even though they still believe in their cause. UNITA has since been transformed into a political party in Angola. Why can Ojukwu not initiate a political movement that is predicated on its abhorrence for ethnic cleansing, religious intolerance, or feudal chauvinism in Nigeria? After all, those were the supposed raison d’être of Biafra, and they are still valid, and ideologically correct.

Apologising for taking part in the civil war, and making genuine efforts at healing the resultant trauma cannot, in any way, detract from whatever ideals that may have been in the Biafran vision. In fact, this would have earned General Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu the trust and confidence of other Nigerians, especially non-Igbo former Eastern Nigerians, now that he wants to contest for relevance in Nigeria.

Recently, General Babangida and Major General Buhari met in Sokoto to reconcile. Rumour has it that General Babangida apologised to Major General Buhari for overthrowing him in a bloodless coup d’état, just as then Brigadiers Murtala Mohammed, Olusegun Obasanjo, and Theophilus Danjuma did to General Yakubu Gowon in 1975, in their younger days, after the Nigeria-Biafra War, in which they were all GOCs. The script of their reconciliation drama was fully acted out when the two men hugged and embraced themselves to their satisfaction, under the eminently choreographic guidance of the Sultan of the Caliphate of Sokoto, domiciled in the secular Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Meanwhile, Colonel Anthony Nyiam, a surviving coup plotter, in his general assessment of the just concluded presidential primaries, asserts that, in spite of warnings to Dr. Alex Ekwueme (GCON) that he was about to be taken for a ride again, the former Vice President allowed himself to be fooled for the third time, destroying decades of his illustrious political career and reputation in the process. Colonel Nyiam condemned General Ibrahim Babangida’s efforts to destabilise Nigeria by trying to plant a stooge at Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.

He traced the moves to impeach the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to General Babangida who, he said, sponsored Dr. Ekwueme. Colonel Nyiam further accused Generals Ibrahim Babangida, Aliyu Gusau, and Abdulsalami Abubakar of fanning the embers of discord in the Nigerian polity, stating that it was the same General Babangida who lured his close friend, mentor and coup financier, Bashorun (Alhaji) M.K.O. Abiola (Aare Ona Kakanfo XIV) to contest the 1993 elections, and was later dumped, after the charade called "June 12".

The Sokoto reconciliation show came to a climax when both former military dictators met in the residence of His Excellency Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari (GCFR), to apologise personally, and specifically to him, for the leading roles that they played in the abortion of the Second Republic, of which Alhaji Shehu Shagari was the President, via a treasonable act, better known as coup d’état. In other words, suddenly, as if with automatic alacrity, and retroactive effect, neither were our hospitals mere consulting clinics, nor was Nigeria ever a beggar and borrower nation, as Major General Mohammadu Buhari told Nigerians some twenty (20) years ago!

Meanwhile, 61 years old Major General Buhari is contesting the 2003 presidential elections, without bothering to apologise to 127 million Nigerians worldwide, some twenty (20) years after treasonably overthrowing a democratically elected government, against Major Kaduna Nzeogwu’s good friend, 66 years old General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo (GCFR), who defeated 70 years old Dr. Alex Ekwueme (GCON), who was Alhaji Shagari’s Vice President some twenty (20) long years ago, just as Dr. Chuba Okadigbo, Alhaji Shehu Shagari’s Political Adviser some twenty (20) long years ago, is now Major General Buhari’s running mate. Déjà vu? Turn-by-turn? Political Geometry?

Please observe very well that General Babangida and Major General Buhari have (a) reconciled, (b) apologised to Shagari only, and (c) adopted a running mate from the South East geopolitical zone, under the direct and overt instigation of the ubiquitous unelected feudal "elders", and "royal fathers" of the Sokoto Sultanate, one of whom is the Emir of Gwandu, HRH Major (Alhaji) Mustapha Jokolo. Déjà vu? Turn-by-turn? Zik of Africa? Owelle of Onitsha? Oyi of Oyi? Political Arithmetic?

Just before the PDP primaries, President Obasanjo’s men fished out the PDP state governors and warned them very seriously that their gubernatorial dreams could simply vanish into thin air if they refused to play ball. It was also reported that the President’s men threaten the PDP governors with adverse security dossiers on each of them, containing gory details of their pillaging of their respective state treasuries nationwide. Political Algebra by hoodwinking, intimidation, and blackmail, the OBJ way: Pikin wey say sey ‘im papa no go sleep, ‘im too no go sleep!

Now, what if the Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and the Turaki Adamawa, His Excellency, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (GCON), exercises his democratic right to have a re-think? What if Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (GCON) declines to be the running mate of General Olusegun Obasanjo (GCFR), and simply throws his weight behind the candidature of a fellow Arewa, Major General (Alhaji) Mohammadu Buhari, and becomes a superhero to his people? After all, he can easily be "positioned" to continue the "continuity" of Alhaji Buhari’s tenure from 2007. Age is on his side: Papa wey say sey ‘im pikin no go sleep, ‘im too no go sleep. Haba!

Between Saturday, 1 October 1960, and Thursday, 29 May 2003, precisely 15,945 days would have elapsed since Sir James Robertson (OBE) handed over to Sir Nnamdi Azikiwe (KCBE) as the Governor General of the Federation of Nigeria.

Of the 15,945 days of post-colonial Nigeria,

Between the collapse of the First Republic, and the collapse of the Second Republic, there were 6,924 days, of which the military grabbed power for 5,372 days (77.6% of the time), inclusive of Obasanjo’s joint dictatorship with Major General Shehu Yar’Adua, post-Murtala.

Between the collapse of the Second Republic, and Thursday, 29 May 2003, there would be 7,089 days, of which the military grabbed power for 5,628 days (79.4% of the time), exclusive of Obasanjo’s civilian presidency in the Fourth Republic, post-Yola Prison.

Let us now take a closer look at the so-called problem of Nigeria’s political elite conducting an acceptable, free and fair election. The innuendoes and fallacies inherent in that assertion are that:

Definitely, the two waves of military dictatorships (1966 ~ 1979, and 1983 ~ 1999) in Nigeria experienced bloody coups d’etat, palace coups, and sudden death as the only mechanisms for power transfer from-military-to-military rule. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that Generals Olusegun Obasanjo and Abdulsalami Abubakar handed over power to pre-determined civilian successors, on whom they imposed a kind of "self-destruct" constitution, as if in calculated anticipation of a future wave of military dictators, at a predetermined future time. By now, any aware Nigerian ought to know that the Independence General Elections were rigged by the British colonial government of Sir James Robertson, prior to handover. Therefore there can be no over-glorifying of military handovers, or colonial handovers, as against civilian handovers. They have all been faulty.

The question still remains: How do we organise credible democratic elections in Nigeria? The answer may be: Let us make the electoral process so transparent that it would drive away crooked politicians! Imagine a scenario that would allow the effective implementation of the following sequence of actions:

Alternatively, similar to what holds in Switzerland, Nigerians can, if they choose to do so, drastically reduce the tenure of their President, Vice President, Senate President, Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives, Governors, and Local Government Chairpersons, each to a maximum single term of one (1) year. This could radically demystify the prevailing "federal might" mentality, or the "Abuja" mind-set that allows for emotional distancing between the Nigerian electorate and their so-called representatives at "the centre", in a political culture space that is apparently devoid of any iota of accountability, rhyme, or reason, as exemplified in the on-going "nascent" democracy, currently presided over by General (Chief) Olusegun Okikiola Aremu Mathew Obasanjo (GCFR).

Contrary to the naïve hypothesis derived from the conventional wisdom of the dominant ultra-neurotic groups in Nigeria that the faulty conduct of civilian-to-civilian elections attracts military interventions, it is actually the lure to self-perpetuation that triggers off military opportunism in the Nigerian political space. The conduct and outcomes of the general elections in Nigeria in 1965 and 1983 were only the outward manifestations of the underlying desire for self-perpetuation by Sir (Alhaji) Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (OBE), and Alhaji Shehu Shagari (GCFR) respectively.

In summary, Sir (Alhaji) Abubakar Tafawa Balewa’s government was overthrown, in just over 100 days after attempting to recycle himself as Prime Minister of Nigeria. He lost his life in the process. Alhaji Shehu Shagar’s government was overthrown, in just over 90 days after attempting to recycle himself as the Executive President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. General Yakubu Gowon’s military junta was overthrown, in just under 100 days after announcing that his previously announced handover date was "unrealistic": a convenient euphemism for self-perpetuation. Even General Ibrahim Babangida’s clever idea of self-perpetuation in the guise of Chief Ernest Shonekan, collapsed after just 82 days.

Generally, through out Nigeria’s over 42 years of post colonial politics, all overt or covert attempts at self-recycling have always failed with n about 100 days of imposed incumbency. Therefore, with the benefit of hindsight, and projecting within limits of human and/or statistical error, we can safely assert that any attempt by General (Chief) Olusegun Obasanjo to self-perpetuate beyond Thursday, 29 May 2003, would fail, on or before Wednesday, 1 October 2003.

 January 2003