On April 12, April 19, and May 3, 2003, electoral earthquakes occurred in the South-West part of Nigeria, a.k.a Yorubaland, that re-arranged its political deck. From Badagry (in Lagos State) through Ode-Ekiti (in Ekiti State) to Okunland (in Kogi State), from Mahin (in Ondo State) through Atakumosa (in Osun State) to Okuta (in Kwara State), the gale force wind of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with "General" Olabode George at the fore, and the numbers-machine of "Sief" SM Afolabi in the rear, swept the Alliance for Democracy (AD aka Afenifere) off its feet, leaving (as it sometimes happens in real life) only Lagos (under "Field Marshall" Tinubu) to wonder how only his brigade survived the onslaught.

The South-West was "captured", as Bode George and SM Afolabi had promised. The South-West was "delivered" to "Generallisimo Aare" Obasanjo, as "Oga Olopa" Balogun Tafa clearing the path. Edo Minorities Tony Anenih and Abel Guobadia’s ("mercenary"?) help was invaluable, one might surmise.

The results have generated a cottage industry of pundits, most gloating about the demise, real and imagined, of AD and Afenifere. In the early days, before the discovery of the Rape of the South-East "beautiful bride" – still bleeding with legs wide open – it was some South-Eastern media pundits who were in the fore of that anti-Afenifere/AD punditry. Since then, they have left the stage to denounce their own rape, while many objective and "progressive" Yoruba commentators have now taken over.

The turnout analysis of the 2003 election results so far are shown in Tables 1 below. In the South-West, the 2003 just by themselves make little sense unless when compared with what they were in 1999, so I also have shown in Table 2 more detailed results comparing the elections of the two years in order to appreciate the difference.

In both Tables, the traditional South-West includes Ekiti, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun and Oyo Sates. However, I have also included in Table 2, Kwara (90% Yoruba) and Kogi (40% Yoruba) for completeness.

We assume, for the sake of argument, that these figures are reliable.

Then on the whole, Table 1 shows that there was little enthusiasm for the elections IN GENERAL in the South-West, with rates less than 50% except for the presidential elections. Low participation therefore explains low interest in the outcome of the results, one way or the other. In that same table, Ogun State presidential turnout percentage (almost 87%) relative to other states in the South-West (with an average of 54%), and in relation to the gubernatorial turnout (a difference of 618,017) – continues to stick out like a sore thumb, indicating some electoral malfeasance that is yet to be explained.

From Table 2, in the SouthWest, Obasanjo won 1,092,196 votes in 1999 and 5,042,678 votes in 2003. That remarkable turn around mirrors from 143,564 votes in Ogun State in 1999 to 1,360,170 votes in 2003. Maybe it was because there was no "Yoruba" candidate in 2003? Maybe because he is from Ogun State? Without this turn around, and with the remarkable 618,017 difference observed above, the 675,685 more votes which Obasanjo won in 2003 when compared with Falae in 1999 would have been wiped out significantly. Significantly in Kogi and Kwara, Obasanjo won almost 60,000 votes in 2003 than in 1999.

My conclusion from these numbers are as follows:

So if there was rigging, why is there no outrage in the Southwest? Blame it on the South West governors, who refused to "listen to their elders" Afenifere about care about Obasanjo, and hence got routed in the process. Tinubu’s survival is part-area-boy, part-Atiku-friendship. He would have been swept too otherwise.

It is what the Yoruba would call "afowofa" – self-inflicted pain, aided and abetted by Obasanjo’s war-plan-like deception (see Appendix for Soboyede’s great piece on deception), and resulting in "insider-abuse" by an "ara ile" (a homeboy) made good thrice. If according to Governor X, Obasanjo was good to be president and he should be voted for, and then Obasanjo comes to your backyard to raise up the hand of your opponent claiming him to be "good to be the next governor," then "o da fun e" (it is good for you) if that opponent wins, rigging or no rigging. "O da fun won!" – the Yoruba would chorus. " Oode! Suegbe!" – the Yoruba would chorus.

And the specter of Buhari put a full-stop to all pretences to pre- and post-election objectivity.

There is another issue that these numbers bring up: a need to include proportional representation along with our first-past-the-post (majority winner takes all) clause. For example, a situation where in Lagos State AD wins 20 seats and PDP wins 2 seats in the House of Representatives, yet AD won 564,601 votes while PDP wins 372,932 votes is palpably unfair. Similarly, in Ekiti, a situation exists where PDP won 5 seats to AD’s 1 seat, yet the vote split was 179,743 to 146,171. In our ethnically diverse situation, one-half of the seats minus one should be by first-past-the-post, while the rest should be divided according to the proportion of the total votes won. In the Lagos case, AD would have won 10 + (564,601/(564,601+372,932))*12 seats or 17 seats to PDP’s 5 seats. In the Ekiti case, PDP would have won 4 seats to AD’s 2 seats.

Note that in practice, it means that the number of first-past-the-posts seats would be contested on a candidates’ basis, while the proportional representation seats would be on a party basis, with each party presenting a slate of candidates from which the final winning candidates would be chosen. The situation improves with a greater number of seats.

Proportional representation should be part of our electoral reform.

Best wishes all.