Will the bubble burst? 

BY

Jimmy Imo

I am neither a seer nor a prophet of doom. I do not need to be, however, to know that Nigeria’s democratic experiment may be heading for disaster. All it takes to know that crisis is looming large is to be a student or keen observer of Nigeria’s political history—contemporary political history.

Just two years in the life of the present government of President Olusegun Obasanjo and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the euphoria with which Nigerians ushered in the civilian government after an unbroken 15 years of military dictatorship and misrule have almost completely vanished into the thin air.

Just before the burble burst, as it is likely to, we need to stop and ponder where we have gone wrong, again, as a nation and a people. Why is it that we cannot get our transitional arrangements right? Why has it been impossible, to date, to transit from one civilian administration to another? Why is it that we as a people have refused to learn from history? As Frank McDonald puts it in his book Salamander "if we don’t learn from the mistakes of past history, we are doomed to repeat them." Is it that our leaders cannot see clearly the "signposts to disaster" or have they chosen to ignore the signposts in the forlorn hope, like the ostrich, that if its buries its head in the sand long enough, the problems would disappear.

On May 29, 1999, Nigerians expected that the new civilian era would unshackle them from the bondage which military mis-rule had plunged the whole country. This expectation has unfortunately been shattered so much so that many Nigerians feel that their lot was better in many respects, during the despotic and obnoxious regime of the maximum dictator, General Sani Abacha. It is common to hear Nigerians say today that democracy or civilian government of President Obasanjo has yielded no dividend. Despite the anti-corruption posturing of President Obasanjo’s government, people watch helplessly as government continues with its business as usual.

Having been fed with the view that the hurried transition of General Abdusalami Abubakar was merely a military transition, Nigerians believed that the real transition programme actually commenced on May 29. Expectedly, expectations were high, but what prevails today is a feeling of "another hope betrayed." A feeling of hopelessness and despondency by Nigerians is now the order the day. Instead of a transition to a real democracy from ordinary civilian administration, we seem to be transiting on the path to anarchy instead of democracy, we are seeing yet another era of what the legendary musician, Fela Anikulakpo Kuti, referred to as "demonstration of craze," "crazy demonstration." Contrary to the democratic spirit which engenders competition and choices, the order of the day is that every elected government functionary from the highest level is hell-bent on self-succession — the very thing for which Abacha was highly vilified. In fact, the way and manner in which the "self succession" campaigns" are carried Abacha was highly vilified. In fact the way and manner in which the "self succession" campaigns" are carried out is reminiscent of the Abacha era. This is not very surprising though because a lot of office holders today collaborated actively with the military in the hey days of Abacha and other military dictators. All manner of faceless "independent" campaign organisations, of course with questionable sources of funds have sprung up at all levels of government with the sole agenda of returning incumbents by hook or crook. It is a fact that incumbent office holders have been using state resources to finance their re-election bid. To achieve this purpose, other well meaning Nigerians who now genuinely want to participate in the political process must be shut out. It is also a fact that some office holders have recruited or are in the process of recruiting private armies in the name of militia, vigilante or youth groups for the sole purpose of using the groups to annihilate, fight or scare off intending opponents at the next polls.

Ordinarily, it is normal for incumbents to aspire to a second term in office, if they perform creditably and are not barred constitutionally, but in a situation where they believe that it is their birthright to continue in office even when it is evident that they have not performed is not healthy for democracy. Two of the existing registered political parties—the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Peoples Party (APP) recently did not help matters when they pronounced that all their elected office holders would be given automatic second term. This is not only anti-democratic, it will further alienate and shut out genuine participants in the political process and overheat the political system. Those shut out unfairly may resort to subverting the entire political process. This is no doubt a very likely possibility as we approach 2003. This is because a lot of Nigerians who took only a passing interest in General Abdulsalami Abubakar’s transition have now started showing active interest, which is a good development. Where people are shut out through non-registration of the new parties and or cannot find accommodation in the old ones, a significant segment of the populace would have been unfairly excluded. Historically, this has always created problems.

It is a fact of Nigeria political history that no civilian government has successfully organised a transition to the logical conclusion of a stable and good government. This was the case in the First and Second republic and probably accounts for why many politicians today are advocating for constitutional amendments of a single term of five to six years for elected office holders. The turbulence and sometimes bloodshed that usually characterise the change of guard at the end of every first term is catching up with us again. Recently, no less a person than the political adviser to the president, Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife canvassed the view that elected office holders should hold office for a five to six year single term. The reasoning behind this call which amounts to changing the rules midway might be the realisation that it is the inordinate ambition of elected office holders to continue in office, even after they have become unpopular, that is responsible for the collapse of past civilian governments in Nigeria.

A brief excursion into the First and Second republic era will clearly reveal the fact that in Nigeria "the more things change, the more they remain the same." Prior the January 15, 1966 military coup that overthrew the government of Alhaji Tafawa Balewa, the Central governments machinations in Western region is akin to what prevails today. The Action Group (AG) crisis of 1962 was carefully choreographed by the Central Government in its bid to have a foothold in the Western region before the next Federal elections which was slated for 1965. The Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) found a willing accomplice in Chief S.L. Akintola and his Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP). Though Chief Akintola emerged at the end of the day as the Premier of Western Nigeria, after the state of emergency, it was not long before the burble burst on January 15, 1966.

Not a few Nigerians think that the largely South-West based Alliance for Democracy’s, (AD) protracted crisis has been induced by the Federal Government in its quest to have a niche of the South-West in view of the desperate desire of the president’s men to give him a political base in his home zone—the South-West, especially in the light of the withdrawal of support from his erstwhile backers.

In 1983, after thirteen unbroken years of military brigandage and four years of the civilian ineptitude of the Alhaji Shehu Shagari’s government, the attempt at conducting a general election was an unmitigated disaster. After it "won" the 1979 elections, not at the polls but at the courts, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) set out in 1983 to prove its critics wrong that it was capable of winning at the polls (it will be recalled that President Olusegun Obasanjo’s victory was also resolved at the courts). In spite of its unpopularity and four years of misrule characterised by official corruption, greed and avarice, the NPN’s government declared itself winner of the 1983 general elections and Alhaji Shagari was returned as the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

To achieve this "landslide" feat, the NPN’s rigging machinery was put into overdrive and it "defeated" the other parties in their traditional strongholds, probably to avoid the mistakes of the twelve two-thirds saga of 1979. It is now history that NPN’s Chief C.C. Onoh "defeated" Governor Jim Nwobodo of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) in his Enugu base and in old Oyo State, the incumbent governor, Chief Bola Ige of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) "lost" to Dr. Omololu Oluloyo of the NPN. In Ondo State, Chief Akin Omoboriowo of the NPN claimed victory over the incumbent Pa Adekunle Ajasin. He could however not govern as mayhem was unleashed in the town by aggrieved voters.

Three months after all these and other absurdities, the military led by today’s sharia crusader, General Mohamadu Buhari struck by December 31, 1983 and paved way for 15 unbroken years of military dictatorship. For a government that claimed a "landslide" victory three months earlier, the euphoria by which Nigerians welcomed the military exposed the lie that was NPN’s "victory". Prior to that victory, the popular refrain of some major political actors were that whether Nigerians voted NPN or not, the party would win the 1983 polls. Nigerians got used to hearing top politicians say that they will win "at all cost", "stockfish for stockfish", "Naira for Naira", "thuggery for thuggery" and so on and so forth. We are again back to the past era of intolerance and intimidations, even though elections are not round the corner. We now hear top PDP stalwarts saying that "there is no vacancy" in Aso Rock. Pray, if there is no vacancy at all levels of government, what is the point spending billions of the nation’s scarce resources carrying out pretentious and predetermined elections. Was this not the case in the past? The same dramatis personae who overheated the First and Second Republic and made the third one still-born are at it again, preaching a do or die battle, "Naira for Naira," "dollar for dollar."

With their actions and utterances and sheer desperation to dominate, undemocratically, the political system, at the various levels of government, if the trend continues unchecked, the polity will definitely boil over in 2003. When this happens anarchy will be the order of the day and "things will fall apart" as the "centre will no longer hold." Already there are very loud indications that rigging, thuggery and bloodshed will be features of the next election.

Though the military seem now a shadow of itself and no longer have the moral high ground to intervene in the politics of the country, with its deeply self-inflicted injuries, it is still not completely inconceivable that the "hotheads" that a retired General said still abound in the army might want to capitalize on the confusion and anarchy that would be unleashed by politicians in 2003.

In the event that this happens, I do not see Nigerians pouring out in the streets to embrace the military misadventurist, going by the plunder and murder which Nigerians have seen the military perpetrate in our national body politic, as is being further revealed at the justice Chukwudifu Oputa Panel. Even then, I do not also see today’s hungry, angry and pauperized Nigerians, the civil society and Human Rights community mustering enough strength and the will to mount a protracted and effective resistance against any determined military usurper of the people’s power. While the masses are disillusioned and feel that the politicians are no better than the soldiers, the Human Rights community are battle weary and is of the mindset that the major beneficiaries of their democratic struggle to chase away the military are those who actively collaborated with Abacha and other military dictators. On their part, the political parties are too weak and ill-disciplined to mount any active resistance against future military encroachment. Will the bubble burst? Time will tell.

November 2001