THE WINNING OF THE APRIL 2003 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS A FUNCTION OF "GEOGRAPHICAL SPREAD" AND ONLY OBASANJO AND BUHARI MEET IT..

by

Prof. Omo Omoruyi

WHAT THE CONSTITUTION SAYS

In election, the concept of winning one would normally think is a constitutional matter. That is what it should be. According to the Nigerian Constitution, there are provisions for the number of candidates. Section 133 applies to where the number is one. Section 134:1 applies to where the number is two and Section 134:2 applies to where the number is more than two. The conditions that should be met are of two kinds.

FEDERATION AS ONE CONSTITUENCY

One is the number of votes where the Federation is taken as one constituency. Here there are two kinds of winning figures, the majority votes as in Section 133:a and in Section 134:1a where the number of candidates is one or two. Where the number of candidates is more than two, the applicable winning figure is the highest number of votes as in Section 134:2a. It is obvious that where there are 17 Presidential candidates as we have today, winning under this condition is the "highest number of votes", which we call the "plurality" and not the "majority votes". This is the easiest condition to meet by the incumbent. Chief Obasanjo has a clear head start.

GEOGRAPHICAL SPREAD

The second condition is the geographical spread that applies to the minimum percentage of the votes that should be secured in a specific number of States including the Federal Capital Territory. This condition applies to whether the number of candidates is one or two or more than two. That is why Section 133:2, 134:1b and 134:2b have identical clause as follows:

……………not less than one quarter of the votes cast

at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the

States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory,

Abuja.

Under the prevailing number of candidates (17), the incumbent (Obasanjo) with little effort would easily meet the first condition as he would be able to secure the highest number of votes that could be as low as 7/8 votes in a hypothetical figure of 100 voters. He has better name recognition than any other candidates.

It is the second condition that is critical to who is likely to win the 2003 election. This is where the strategies of all the candidates are to be assessed.

GENESIS OF THE TWO CONDITIONS

Nigerians who are wondering as to the genesis of these two conditions should consult the Proceedings of the Constituent Assembly Volume 2 of 1977/78. That was the genesis of the two conditions. The majority ethnic nationalities wanted more weight given to the first condition and less weight on the second condition. Some of them even wanted majority votes while others just wanted the highest number of votes i.e. just the plurality of votes. Here the Yoruba, the Igbo and the Hausa members of the Constituent Assembly were united for various reasons. They were uncomfortable with the idea of geographical spread that was ably championed by the leaders of the minority caucus from the south (Bendel, Rivers and Cross River) and the north (Benue, Plateau, Gongola, part of Niger, part of Kaduna, part of Bauchi and part of Borno).

As a matter of record, the notion of "geographical spread" was therefore, an invention or a contrivance of the minorities in Nigeria who were dissatisfied with the politics of the tripod. The minority caucus wanted the Nigerian politics to take into account the plural character of Nigeria with large and small ethnic nationalities. It was the view of the minority caucus that the plural character of Nigeria could be subsumed under the notion of "geographical spread" in terms of the minimum number of States. The minimum that was decided in the Constituent Assembly was and still remains 2/3 of the States.

I do not have to make any apology to some Igbo commentators, who accuse me that I usually interject myself into the discussion. May I advise my young friend and alumni of a University where I was the Deputy Vice Chancellor (Okezie Chukwumerije) and the distinguished son of my good friend, Uche, that confessing to one’s role in the Nigerian politics does not necessarily make the analysis of Nigerian politics inelegant.

Mr. Chukwumerije, I can claim to be one of the "Founding Fathers of the Presidential System" when you were a toddler. You as a distinguished law student from University of Benin, you were taught the legislative history or what the founding fathers had in mind, especially dealing with constitutional issues. Mr. Chukwumerije, your article called "The Mythography of Omoruyi" in the Nigeriaworld.com was misplaced.

What I could make out of your essay is an attempt to deny an old man his democratic right. If I am not in Nigeria during the period of voting, what avenue for participation would be available to me from Boston? Mark you I have never shied away from voting since I first cast my vote in 1959. 2003 would not be an exception. I should be free to tell the Nigerian people who are asking me to endorse this or that that I would support Obasanjo out of the large number of candidates in the 2003 election and why. I should also be free to say why I would not vote for Buhari and Ojukwu.

From your essay in May 24, 2003 in the Nigeriaworld.com you made up your mind to write off Obasanjo as a tragedy. It is your right to reach such a decision. You may reach another decision today to canvass for a candidate of your choice even though you did not tell the Nigerian people who that person would be in your essay.

I am not claiming to be all knowing; But the history of that period cannot be written without mentioning the key actors from the minority caucus who set the Agenda in the Constituent Assembly in 1977/78. Let me refer to such names as MT Mbu, SD Lar, TY Danjuma, Paul Unongo, Ayuba Kadzai, Omo Omoruyi, Justin Tseayo, Obi Wali, Dr. Mudiaga Odje and so on to mention a few. In fact I was the Coordinator of the Minority Caucus that later became part of Club 19 and later the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP). Would it surprise you that I did not mention any of the big names from the north, southeast and southwest? That was the genesis of the geographical spread as it applies to the system of election of the President. For the interest of those who would want to do research into how many of the decisions on the Presidential System were taken, let me refer them to my book, Beyond the Tripod in Nigerian Politics (Benin City/Lagos, 2001).

GEOGRAPHICAL SPREAD AND FEDERAL CHARACTER

The notion of geographical spread is different from the notion of federal character. While the geographical spread is a minimum number of States 2/3, the federal character applies to all the States in the federation.

Geographical spread has implications for the nature of political parties, the organization of the parties, the message or appeal of the parties, the leaders of the parties and the campaign for the presidential election. The registration of political parties in the past used to take into account the notion of geographical spread because it is critical to how to become a President.

Not all the parties today could be said to be serious political proposition for the purpose of meeting the notion of geographical spread, which is the second condition for the election of the President. This was at the root of the classification of the candidates into four categories in my essay that later formed the basis of the two credible candidates (Obasanjo and Buhari) from which I chose Obasanjo.(Guardian of February 24, 2003).

For the education of those who called me an anti-Igbo Nigerian, because of what I said about Dim Ojukwu and other Ndi Igbo Presidential candidates, let me emphasize that it was under the notion of the geographical spread that I simply dismissed some candidates as either idealist or spoilers.

It was in the application of the geographical spread that I zeroed in on the two candidates, Obasanjo and Buhari as the two credible candidates in the 2003 election. Their parties PDP and ANPP respectively are well established in all the 36 States of the Federation. They are contesting election in all the States. This was at the root of the decision to have two political parties in the Second and Third Republic. This was why I labeled the three candidates (Nwobodo, Nwachukwu and Ojukwu) stalematists. They know that they would not be able to meet the geographical spread provision in the Constitution, because their focus is just on the Igbo votes from the five Igbo States, (Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi). The Guardian Poll demonstrated this recently. Are my detractors from Igbo land too numerous to name reading the hand writing on the wall that Nigerians and the world are not looking forward to a President in May this year beyond Obasanjo and Buhari?

It is obvious that except the two candidates of the PDP and the ANPP other candidates are far from meeting the second condition. The question is what do the 15 candidates have in mind when they filed their papers to run for the office of the President? This is the subject of this essay.

At the risk of being further misunderstood and caricatured by some Igbo commentators that I am anti-Igbo person, let me add Dim Ojukwu the most credible of all the 9 or so Igbo candidates to the list of serious candidates in addition to Buhari and Obasanjo. From the way his campaign is being waged so far, it would appear that Dim Ojukwu who is claiming to be the Eze-Igbo (Igbo King) is the anointed beneficiary of the Igbo votes world-wide. I shall then take these three candidates (Ojukwu, Buhari and Obasanjo) as the three credible candidates in order to accommodate some of the commentators who advised me to leave the Ndi Igbo alone with their "Igbo Question in Nigerian Politics". Let me still counsel, there is an urgent need for the resolution of this question by and for the Ndi Igbo in Nigeria. I am afraid, the "Igbo Question in Nigerian Politics" will be complicated in 2003, if the Igbo votes are not part of the winning majority after the election.

What do the three candidates have in mind as constituting winning? The idea of winning varies with candidates and their goal in getting into the race.

OJUKWU. Winning for him means:

BUHARI Winning means:

OBASANJO Winning means

The way Buhari and his handlers are carrying on, to them, it is winning or nothing. They are raising alarm at the plan by the INEC and even calling for amendments to the Electoral Act a week to the election!

The way Dim Ojukwu is openly appealing to ethnicity is frightening; the future of the Igbo does not depend on the Igbo voting for him. Ikemba has a hidden agenda yet to be disclosed to Nigerians.

He made the same appeal to the Igbo voters in Onitsha Senatorial District in 1983 of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Behold, another Igbo candidate, Dr. Edwin Onwudiwe of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) beat him and his paramilitary supporters, the Ikemba Front.

A Zikist called recently and told me that as far he knew, if Dr. Azikiwe were to be consulted from his grave, he would advise the Igbo to vote their conscience. This Zikist also told me that he is advising some of Zik’s followers, the Zikists to vote for a Nigerian candidate and not for an Igbo King. That is why Jim Nwobodo, a Zikist would not step down for the Ikemba.

To Chief Obasanjo, it is the Nigerian voters that would decide who is the winner or the loser. This is what democracy is all about. This is why the Nigerian political leaders in the north and in the south feel that they would want to join hands with Obasanjo as the only democrat in the race to make him win on the first ballot.

Omo Omoruyi

April 2003